Thursday, September 10, 2009

NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Week 1 Picks
M.D. Wright
9.10.09

Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
Lines: PIT (-6.5) Over/Under 34.5
TEN: +240
PIT: -290

Rematch of last year's regular season showdown. I had the Steelers winning in a rout, however, I was too late to get home to do my picks in time for the game. They won by a smidge. The Titans played very vanilla and you cannot do that against Roethlisberger. They paid for it with the loss.

(Original Pick)
Tennessee 13
Pittsburgh 27

(Actual Score)
Tennessee 10
Pittsburgh 13
FINAL
--------------------

Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
Lines: ATL (-4.5) Over/Under 43.5
MIA: +170
ATL: -210

I say the Dolphins fall back. They won't sneak up on anyone and teams are prepared for Wildcat Offence. Falcons are solid and Michael Turner will get his 145 yards. Ball control and consistency from Matthew Ice = Fulcons win.

Pick:
Miami 17
Atlanta 30
FINAL
---------------------

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Lines: BAL (-12.5) Over/Under 36
KC: +600
BAL: -800

CARNAGE.

Pick:
Kansas City 6
Baltimore 24
FINAL
---------------------

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Lines: CAR (+2.5) Over/Under 43.5
PHI: -140
CAR: +120

Interesting set-up here. The Iggles have one of the best offences in the NFC now with McNabb healthy, Westbrook, McCoy, Maclin and Jackson. However, this is their weakest defence this decade. It will matter. All year.

The Panthers look to rebound from Delhomme's debacle in the playoffs last year. Jake does not want to relive those nightmares. The Panthers can run the ball better than almost anyone and they WILL against the Iggles.

Pick:
Philadelphia 27
Carolina 31
FINAL
---------------------

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
Lines: CIN (-2.5) Over/Under 42.5
DEN: +180
CIN: -220

The Broncos are a mess. Who even knows what to expect from them? They have Marshall and Royal, but *gulp* Kyle Orton? DEAR GOD.
The Bengals hope to have Cursin' (Carson) Palmer healthy to go with Chad Ocho Cinco and Laveranues Coles on the outside. They can't run the ball, though. Unless Cedric Benson all of a sudden learns how to. Still pick the Bengals to win against that E! True Hollywood Story of a team in Denver.

Pick:
Denver 20
Cincinnati 31
FINAL
----------------------

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
Lines: MIN (-4.5) Over/Under 40
MIN: -220
CLE: +180

I don't know what to make of this game. I think the Vikes will win, but overall, how can you call it? The Browns are pretty tough against the run, for all the circus going on out there. Peterson will get his, though. Will Favre do damage? I have no idea. The Browns have to prove they can both run the ball (Lewis) and get the ball to the outside (Edwards) since Winslow is not there to be Quinn's safety blanket. This could be a long season for the Browns.

Pick:
Minnesota 24
Cleveland 20
FINAL
----------------------

New York Jets vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Lines: HOU (-4.5) Over/Under 44
NYJ: +180
HOU: -220

The Texans can light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine. The Jets MAY be able to, but Sanchez is 100% rookie. He looked good in the preseason, but who knows how much of that will translate to the regular season? Schaub MUST stay healthy in order for the Texans to have any continuity on offense. Healthy, they are as good as they come with Schaub/A. Johnson/Daniels/Walter/Slaton.

However, the Jets are much better than the Texans defensively. The key will be to watch how the Jets attack Andre Johnson -- using Revis one on one or with help over the top? If they help over on Johnson, that will leave the aforemetioned receivers/tight end open. Will be a chess match.

Pick:
New York Jets 41
Houston 38
FINAL - OT
---------------------------

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Lines: IND (-7.5) Over/Under 45
JAX: +260
IND: -320

The Jags have the Colts number -- somewhat. They don't own them, but they make the Colts work for it. This game will be no different. But the Jaguwires quit so badly on Del Rio last year -- they looked like trash on both sides of the ball in the preseason. Manning won't allow the Colts to do so offensively and I think they're just as good defensively as they ever have been. Should be a blowout.

Pick:
Jacksonville 13
Indianapolis 31
FINAL
---------------------------

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louuisiana
Lines: NO (-13.5) Over/Under 48.5
DET: +650
NO: -900

......................................................................

Pick at your own risk. If you want to make some big money and know something that the rest of us don't, lay money with the Lions at +650 ha. Drew Brees is gonna do to them what he did last year DEAR GOD.

Pick:
Detroit 17
New Orleans 45
FINAL
---------------------------

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Lines: DAL (-6.5) Over/Under 39
DAL: -275
TB: +235

Do the Bucs even have a plan?

Pick:
Dallas 34
Tampa Bay 9
------------------------

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Lines: ARI (-6.5) Over/Under 46
SF: +220
ARI: -260

This one should be fun. The 49ers are better. And as I said in my Powre Rankings, Crabtree will HAVE to grasp the offence quickly, because they are gonna need him if they expect to be as good as they claim. The Curds will light up the scoreboard, but the Niners can score, too. The Curds are just a SMIDGE better on defence, however.

Pick:
San Francisco 33
Arizona 36
FINAL - OT
-----------------------------

Washington Redskins vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Lines: NYG (-6.5) Over/Under 37
WAS: +240
NYG: -290

Plain and simple, the Giants OWN Washington this decade. And especially at home. Campbell is finally entrenched in an offence for consecutive years for once, at least. Not that it will matter. They don't have enough weapons offensively and cannot block the best front seven nor pass against one of the best secondaries in the NFC.

The Giants' WR corps has been much ballyhooed this offseason. Partially with good reason. But it is all overblown. Hakeem Nicks WILL be making big plays and Steady Steve Smith, along with Mario Manningham will be the consistent possession/deep threats with Sinorice Moss and occasionally Hixon. The Giants' defence will sack Campbell a half dozen times and force him into a pick or two. This game could get ugly quickly.

Pick:
Washington 17
New York Giants 34
FINAL
------------------------------

St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Lines: SEA (-8.5) Over/Under 40.5
STL: +320
SEA: -400

.................................................

Pick:

St. Louis 17
Seattle 20
FINAL - OT
---------------------------

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Lines: GB (-3.5) Over/Under 46.5
CHI: +165
GB: -200

(John Facenda Voice): "As they renewwwwwwwwwwww the old rivalrayyy... the newest incarnation of the Greeeeeeeeeeeeeen Baaaaaaaaay PACKUZ.... versus the Chicaaaaaago BUZZZZZZZZZZ".

The Oldest Rivalry in the NFL.

And the Packers will destroy the Bears. The end.

Pick:
Chicago 16
Green Bay 35
FINAL
-------------------------------

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Lines: NE (-10.5) Over/Under 47.5
BUF: +500
NE: -700

If there is a game to pick against the Patriots, it MAY be this one. They are lacking defensively and the Bills will be ready for the Patriots' offence. Terrell Owens will play and will be open all day like White Castle. It will be close, and high-scoring.

Pick:
Buffalo 34
New England 33
FINAL
--------------------------------

San Diego Super Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Alameda County Coliseum/McAfee Coliseum
Oakland, California
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Lines: SD (-9.5) Over/Under 43
SD: -475
OAK: +375

What on earth. The Raiders' COACHES are fighting each other.

However, they do have a good running game from last year as well as a solid defence (even if Richard Seymour has yet to report after the trade with New England for Oakland's 1st Round Pick in 2011).

It won't be enough to stop LaDainian Tomlinson (who owns them) and the rest of the Chargers (who own them).

Blowout city.
*CUE UP "San Diego Super Chargers Theme Song" From 1979"*

SAN DI-E-GOOOO... SUPER CHARGERS... SAN DI-E-GO... CHAAAAAHGAS!!! CHARGE!!! HA.


Pick:
San Diego 41
Oakland 24
FINAL
----------------

Recaps coming on Tuesday.
Enjoy your football. We've waited eight months for this!!!

M.D. Wright's Power Rankings: Week 1

M.D. Wright's Power Rankings: Week 1
M.D. Wright
9.10.09

Save all the BS, you know what it is. Let's get it poppin'. I don't care about names and stars, I care about teams that get it done on BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL. As always, I'm objective with these.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers.
They're the champs and default #1 until they are beaten.

2. New York Football Giants.
The class of the NFC. And Eli will make people forget about the fact that Burress and Toomer took 90% of the WR's starts with them when they departed the team. Giants will score 27 PPG just the same with the best offensive line and rushing attack top to bottom in the NFC. Along with the best defence in the NFC, and well, you have the best team in the NFC.

3. Tennessee Titans.
The Titans have most of their same players. Will they miss Haynesworth? It doesn't appear thus far. But the bigger question is will Collins revert back to the old Collins? If not, the Titans will be RIGHT THERE this year.

4. San Diego Chargers.
They play in the weakest division in football. That's almost guaranteed 6 wins right there. Combined with a soft non-conference and mild intra-conference sked, and they SHOULD win 12 or 13 this year.

5. Minnesota Vikings.
They were going to be a 10 or 11 win team regardless of Favre's BS. The only question with Favre is will he lead them to the Promised Land. Yours Truly says NO because 1) he will falter late like last year and 2) Favre, even if he is healthy in the playoffs, is FAVRE. Their season will end with a Favre INT. But AD will have close to 2,000 yards rushing and make it look easy in the process.

6. New England Patriots.
Tons of points on offence, tons of points surrendered on defence. Good for 11 or 12 wins and a first round playoff exit. Yes, I'm saying that NOW.

7. Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts don't seem to be missing Harrison much. Truth is, Wayne surpassed him as the team's 1 WR two years ago. But they still need to prove they can hold up defensively. Bob Sanders' annual ritual of missing all or part of a third of the team's games has to stop. They are clearly better with him than when he's out.

8. Baltimore Ravens.
Sleepers. Depends on Flacco though. The defense is still as good as ever.

9. Philadelphia Eagles.
Please point out to me what all the fuss is about? They will score tons of points on offence if McNabb doesn't have another one of those seasons he had a few years ago when they were poised to repeat Super Bowl bids. But they will severely miss old man Jim Johnson (RIP) and their defence SUCKS. They lost Stewart Bradley for the year and their secondary can't cover anyone. What's this about them winning the NFC East?

10. Atlanta Falcons.
They have everything in place to be good. But their defence has to show up 16 games.

11. Carolina Panthers.
Defence is missing that punch it once had. Peppers doesn't care, Gamble, while effective, gets burned and trucked (Bradshaw) just as much as he covers. They only have Jon Beason as consistent playmakers go.

12. Green Bay Packers.
Ranked lower than Minnesota because they have to prove they can run the ball to counter Rodgers' guaranteed 4,200 yard/30+ TD repeat from last season. However, they will be right there for winning the division.

13. Arizona Cardinals.
Curds fans should be nervous. Preseason means nothing unless there are glaring holes that never seem to be rectified. Will they miss Haley? Did they shore up their holes for REAL on defence? We shall see. They will score 27 PPG like last year however. That's good for at least 9 wins in the NFC West.

14. Dallas Cowboys.
No real threats at WR. Serviceable guys. They (Witten) will miss T.O. and the double teams he had. Witten can kiss goodbye to those 90 catch seasons. With no real playmakers at WR, why are people so high on them? They have Ware (best DE/OLB in football) on defence, but what else?

15. Houston Texans.
I've predicted two straight years they'd win 11 or 12. They can score with the best of 'em, but can they DEFEND? Adrian Peterson scorched them for a 75 yard run on the VERY FIRST PLAY OF THE GAME last week. Typical Texans defence. Schaub MUST stay healthy, or they'll be .500 again.

16. New York Football Jets.
I can't go crazy about Sanchez yet. But they have All World Leon Washington FROM ____________?!?! and a stout defense. Will Thomas Jones lose a step, however?

17. New Orleans Saints.
All world offensively. Will their defense FINALLY stay healthy and catch up?

18. Buffalo Bills.
They will be better.

19. Washington Redskins.
You would think finally all of Snyder's efforts to be a Young Steinbrenner would pay off. Haynesworth?

20. Miami Dolphins.
Fall back, baby. Dick Barnett Style.

21. Chicago Bears.
I don't get the fuss. Cutler can throw the hell outta the ball. But he has no real WRs and their defense is old and creaky. .500 team. MAX.

22. Seattle Seahawks.
I just do not trust them. Their defense sucks. MATTHEW, as he prefers to be called, will be healthy, though.

23. San Francisco 49ers.
I actually have them winning 10 TENTATIVELY. Crabtree has to grasp the offense quickly and know something that none of us know or else they're going to be .500 again.

24. Cleveland Browns.
If they keep Quinn upright, they will be better. But not more than 7 wins for this bunch. They will trade Edwards to the Giants for Kiwanuka and a 2nd.

25. Cincinnati Bengals.
Chad OchoCinco needs to worry less about Twitter and more about staying healthy and WINNING GAMES.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

27. Kansas City Chiefs.
They will make strides, but how much can they do with a ton of unproven talent?

28. Denver Broncos.
WHAT A MESS.

29. Detroit Lions.
I have them winning 5 or 6 games. Stafford is a joke, but they are a punchy bunch.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This team is a train wreck.

31. St. Louis Rams.
Bulger is already hurt, sense a theme? Steven Jackson will want out by Week 5.

32. Oakland Raiders.
DEAR GOD.

ESPN's Power Rankings: Week 1

ESPN's Power Rankings
Week 1
9.10.09

2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1
Week:
[+] Add Widget
ESPN.com

The 2009 NFL season does not kick off officially until Thursday, but we've already got a rising team -- that is, according to the latest poll of our experts.

If the Seattle Seahawks continue to skyrocket the ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings at the rate they've been climbing this year, expect them to be our No. 1 team by, say, Week 3.

The Seahawks, 4-12 during an injury-riddled 2008 campaign, are No. 15 in the Week 1 edition of our rankings. So what, you say? In May, the Seahawks ranked 22nd. In our Training Camp edition published in July, the birds in blue were 18th. They finished last season ranked 28th.

Instead of 12 experts weighing in weekly, we have four who will cast their votes. See the glossary below for details.

The first four spots remain unchanged from our Training Camp edition. The San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts flip-flopped the Nos. 5-6 spots.

• More: Voting | Blog takes | SportsNation: Rank 'em | SportsNation: Pick'em | Football Today Listen

(Editor's note: LW indicates each team's ranking last week -- in this case, in the Training Camp edition Power Rankings.)

2009 Power Rankings: Week 1
RK (LW) TEAM REC COMMENT
1 (1) Steelers 12-4-0 They're loaded with talent and their coach knows how to maximize it. Can you say "repeat"? (Chadiha)
2 (2) Patriots 11-5-0 QB Tom Brady's broad shoulders have to carry an aging defense. (Clayton)
3 (3) Giants 12-4-0 The Giants have concerns on defense, but they buy time with solid ground game. (Clayton)
4 (4) Eagles 9-6-1 QB Donovan McNabb isn't wild about Wildcat, but he's the Eagles wild card to success. (Clayton)
5 (6) Chargers 8-8-0 Even if the Chargers get caught up in the hype, they will win the division. (Kuharsky)
6 (5) Colts 12-4-0 Left tackle is the one big issue, but they'll work around it as much as possible. (Kuharsky)
7 (7) Titans 13-3-0 Life gets easier after difficult first six games, four of which are on the road. (Kuharsky)
8 (8) Falcons 11-5-0 A year of seasoning for Matt Ryan should put the Falcons in better position. Coach Mike Smith's even keel also seems helpful. (Sando)
9 (9) Vikings 10-6-0 Schism or not, Brett Favre makes this team a championship contender. (Chadiha)
10 (10) Ravens 11-5-0 They're lucky WR Derrick Mason decided to return from retirement. (Chadiha)
11 (13) Bears 9-7-0 I still don't see how Jay Cutler can play his best without proven wide receivers. (Chadiha)
12 (17) Packers 6-10-0 It all comes down to whether that defense can play better with a new 3-4 scheme. (Chadiha)
13 (12) Cardinals 9-7-0 QB Kurt Warner and key veterans sound a bit concerned after a lackluster preseason. The Cardinals still must prove they can be consistent. (Sando)
14 (11) Panthers 12-4-0 It's tough to set expectations for this group after so much staff turnover and the way Carolina faltered in the postseason. (Sando)
15 (18) Seahawks 4-12-0 The Seahawks are rising in the rankings after QB Matt Hasselbeck proved he could take a hit during the preseason. LT Walter Jones' health also key. (Sando)
16 (15) Dolphins 11-5-0 The Dolphins hope to avert the three-game drop that usually hits a team that goes from worst to first in a division. (Clayton)
17 (14) Cowboys 9-7-0 WR Roy Williams is catching everything in practice despite a sore shoulder, but he needs big season for the offense to thrive. (Clayton)
18 (19) Saints 8-8-0 Skepticism seems appropriate until the Saints prove they've finally upgraded their defense. Until then, it's fantasy football with Drew Brees. (Sando)
19 (16) Texans 8-8-0 LB Brian Cushing alone can't solve the defensive issues that lingered through preseason. (Kuharsky)
20 (20) Redskins 8-8-0 QB Jason Campbell appears improved now that coach Jim Zorn lets him throw more downfield. (Clayton)
21 (21) Bills 7-9-0 Firing offensive coordinator Turk Schonert nine days before the season opener is a sign of total panic in Buffalo. (Clayton)
22 (22) 49ers 7-9-0 Establishing a hard-nosed ground game was the first step for coach Mike Singletary and offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye. Can the passing game catch up? (Sando)
23 (23) Jets 9-7-0 Mark Sanchez continues to appear confident as a starter. He's seemingly more advanced than most rookie QBs. (Clayton)
24 (24) Bengals 4-11-1 Love this year's version of "Hard Knocks." Unfortunately, the Bengals' playoff hopes can be summed up by Chad Ochocinco's trademark saying: "Child, please." (Chadiha)
25 (25) Jaguars 5-11-0 With three division games in first four, the Jags are likely to move down before moving up. (Kuharsky)
26 (26) Buccaneers 9-7-0 A defensive-minded rookie coach plus new starting QB minus the offensive coordinator: I'm not so sure that's a winning equation. (Sando)
27 (27) Broncos 8-8-0 It has to take a while for team to buy in after all the drama surrounding former QB Jay Cutler, and then WR Brandon Marshall. (Kuharsky)
28 (28) Browns 4-12-0 I just can't see new coach Eric Mangini turning this team around in one season. (Chadiha)
29 (29) Chiefs 2-14-0 The Chiefs have a chance to climb if they can separate themselves from the Broncos and Raiders. (Kurharsky)
30 (30) Raiders 5-11-0 Will QB JaMarcus Russell start to quiet critics or give us more fodder? (Kuharsky)
31 (31) Rams 2-14-0 The schedule makers did new coach Steve Spagnuolo no favors by sending the Rams on the road three times in their first four games. (Sando)
32 (32) Lions 0-16-0 New coach Jim Schwartz will make the Lions better. He just won't do it fast enough to make a difference this fall. (Chadiha)

Text

MDW