NFL Week 6 Bettor's Guide

NFL Week 6 Bettor's Guide
M.D. Wright
10.15.09

I am loving how this season is full of surprises; blowouts from unexpected teams (ATL, SEA) and there is never a shortage of drama (NE vs. DEN) and last-second efforts to put teams away (CIN vs. BAL).

IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER FOLKS!

Let's get to the picks and see what we have in store for Week 6.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
Over/Under: 37
WASH: -6.5
KC: +225
WASH: -265

UGH.

Pick:
Kansas City 13
Washington 14

FINAL
-------------

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
Over/Under: 46
CIN: -5
HOU: +220
CIN: -260

This should be a very good game. The Texans can score at will, but they give up points with the same alacrity. The Bengals are a force to be reckoned with right now in every facet. Their problem the past three seasons had been injuries to Palmer and no running game. Well, Palmer is healthy and Cedric Benson looks like the guy at the University of Texas who looked like a lite version of Earl Campbell while in college. Chad is experiencing a resurgence for the ages and their defense is finally beginning to play at the level expected from a defensive-minded head coach. Given that the Texans typically don't travel well, the Bengals should be good money at home.

Pick:
Houston 24
Cincinnati 28

FINAL
-------------

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 38
PIT: -14
CLE: +700
PIT: -1000

I don't trust Pittsburgh with 14 points with as porous as their defense has been. The Browns are terrible, though.

Pick:
Cleveland 10
Pittsburgh 26

FINAL
---------------

Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Over/Under: 44.5
MIN: -3
BAL: +120
MIN: -140

Should be the best game of the week. The one everyone thinks will be a showdown is going to be one-sided. More on that in a minute.

But the Vikes do everything well right now (enough to mask the deficiencies in their secondary). Flacco passes well and throws a great deep ball. Not sure that the Vikes will be able to get to him all game as they were able to vs. Green Bay and St. Louis. If they can't, the Vikings' secondary may be in for a long day. Brett Favre does not hold the ball long and Peterson is due for PETERSON GAME. Vikes at home to cover.

Pick:
Baltimore 20
Minnesota 24

FINAL
--------------

St. Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
Over/Under: 43
JAX: -9.5
STL: +400
JAX: -500

Goodness gracious SAKES alive.

Pick:
St. Louis 6
Jacksonville 27

FINAL
--------------

New York Football Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Over/Under: 47
NO: -3
NYG: +155
NO: -175

A couple of things have to give here, and people who really have watched both teams know which things these are.
The Saints have had moderate success running the ball thus far this season; a new addition to their one-dimensional attack from the past two seasons. However, their offensive line isn't great. It protest Brees relatively well, although he typically gets rid of the ball quickly enough that it doesn't matter. The Saints haven't faced a defensive line of the Giants' calibre and they will get to Brees a few times (including an INTTD). The Jets shut the Saints' vaunted offense down and the Giants' defense is even better than an already-very good Jets' defense.

Offensively, ball control will be the tone of this game. The Giants can sustain 70 and 80 yard drives because they can run the ball consistently all game. The Saints run it in fits and spurts. Eli doesn't make mistakes and the receivers have had great games all season. Having Nicks back as a 3rd option only helps. Darren Sharper gets his INTs off rookie mistakes. Otherwise, he's lost a step and that could get him in trouble as Manningham, Smith and Nicks go downfield. With the best offensive line in football, the Saints will have trouble stopping the run AND getting to Eli in the passing game.

Pick:
NY Giants 33
New Orleans 24

FINAL
-------------

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Over/Under: 39
TB: +3
CAR: -175
TB: +155

These two teams may be two of the most painful teams to watch for two diametrically opposed reasons. The Bucs are just a travesty in every way; offensively, defensive and special teams. They do nothing well. The Panthers have far too much talent in each of those aforementioned categories to be as bad as they are. But they SHOULD win this game and cover.

Pick:
Carolina 20
Tampa Bay 6

FINAL
--------------

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Over/Under: 47.5
GB: -13.5
DET: +525
GB: -725

Upset special of the week. No way Green Bay should be giving that many points to the Lions. The Lions are too game for that. And the Packers' offensive line is a sick joke. The Lions will get to Rodgers. Bet that. Kevin Smith is running the ball relatively well and regardless of the QB, the Lions haven't looked half bad in the passing game. They do need Calvin, however and as of right now it appears he will play. I'm taking the Lions straight up.

Pick:
Detroit 28
Green Bay 24

FINAL
---------------

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
Over/Under: 40.5
OAK: +14
PHI: -900
OAK: +650

The Raiders are going to be one demoralized team by the end of this month -- as if they weren't when Tom Cable broke his assistant coach's jaw ha. Iggles cover easily and win going away.

Pick:
Philadelphia 37
Oakland 13

FINAL
--------------

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Over/Under: 46.5
SEA: -3
ARI: +130
SEA: -150

The Cards stink on defense at times, and yes, I know Qwest is loud and the fans are literally looking down on the field with the way the field was constructed. But we're talking about the SEABAGS here dear god.

Pick:
Arizona 31
Seattle 20

FINAL
--------------

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Football Jets
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Over/Under: 37
NYJ: -9.5
BUF: +350
NYJ: -450

The Jets are angry because they lost last minute against the friggin' WILDCAT offense. The Bills lost to the CLEVELAND BROWNS 6-3 last week. Enough said.

Pick:
Buffalo 9
NY Jets 28

FINAL
--------------

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 43
NE: -9
TEN: +350
NE: -450

If Vince plays, watch out. I'm going to write this up as if he will play. If so, the Patriots will be on upset alert.

Pick:
Tennessee 17
New England 13

FINAL
--------------

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 45.5
ATL: -3.5
CHI: +160
ATL: -190

I don't like this game being on SNF, but whatever. The Bears are a snooze to watch. It will be cold in the southeast on Sunday, but the game is indoors. That favors the Falcons at home.

Pick:
Chicago 20
Atlanta 23

FINAL - OT
---------------------

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 44
SD: -3
DEN: +155
SD: -175

Vegas favors the Chargers at home I see. The Chargers usually stink it up on national TV. They start slow, try to flip the switch late and half the time it comes back to bite them. They start their "save the season" campaign this Monday, however. They know if they lose this game, they'll be in the same predicament they were in last year -- which, if not for the Broncos' epic collapse late in the season, the Chargers would not have won the division and made the playoffs. The Chargers will win going away.

Pick:
Denver 17
San Diego 34

FINAL
-------------

Terrible week last week ATS, should be a great bounceback for me. We shall see. Let's hear your feedback.