NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 4 Picks
By Michael D. Wright
9.25.08

OK, I blew a few games last week, and I've been outright DEAD WRONG about some teams (Denver, Houston, Indianapolis - thus far). But I think my picks this week will be solid; especially since the Jints are on a bye LOL

Here are the picks:

Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans.
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
1 PM

I don't know what to make about the Vikings right now. They benched their starting QB (T. Jackson) and put in ol' man Gus Frerotte. Gus doesn't make many mistakes, but the problem with Minnesota is still the fact they don't stretch the field well enough with their WRs. Their defense is very good up front, but when the defensive line does not get pressure on the QB, the secondary looks average at best. They call Adrian Peterson A.D. because he can run... well... ALL DAY. With Chester Taylor spelling him whenever Peterson needs a breather, the Vikings are tough on the ground.

The Titans have Kerry Collins in for Vince Young at QB. Collins is to Frerotte as Young is to Jackson. Collins doesn't try to do too much (at least until he feels like he's the starter, then he reverts to the dumb nonsense he did while QB of the Giants). Like Minnesota, the Titans can run the ball all day. Their defense is tough up front like Minnesota's. This is a pick 'em game, and I'm going to go with the team that has been most consistent this far.

Call:

Minnesota 23
Tennessee 27
---

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
1 PM

The Chiefs are abysmal. Every week I wonder how Herm Edwards still has a job. Then I remember, the GM, Carl Peterson is one of his lifetime buddies. I get it now. Both teams are awful on defense, and you would think this would be one of those Pinball games, where the last team with the ball wins 51-48 or something, except the Chiefs don't have that kind of offense.

Denver is for real. I totally got it wrong with them in the preseason. They might rack up historic numbers on KC this weekend. Poor Herm.

Call:

Denver 48
Kansas City 10
---

San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints.
Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
1 PM

The 49ers are game. I thought they would be like fishkill this season, but not the case. They Play. To Win. The. Game! The Saints are smarting right now (to steal a line from Hubie Brown). They're smarting. Missing Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey for about six weeks will hurt the Saints' offense. Reggie Bush is good in space, so Pat Willis and Co. will have their hands full. The 49ers' secondary is terrible outside of Nate Clements, but they won't be tested too often in this game. Brees will stick to underneath passes and patterns in the flat. I think Frank Gore has one of his annual "he's going to win the rushing title... watch!" games.

Call:
San Francisco 21
New Orleans 17
---

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Jets.
The New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
1 PM

Anyone who thinks the Cardinals are not for real, let me tell you: THEY ARE LEGIT. Their offense can score with the best of them, and as I've said every week, their defense is very good. They just do not get much publicity because they play out west and don't get National TV exposure due to their annual ritual of not making the playoffs.

Benching Matt Leinart was the best thing the Cards could have done. Edgerrin James does his thing. Anquan Boldin (FROM?!?!?!) and Larry Fitzgerald form arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL. Both could catch 100 passes and well over 1,000 yards and possibly 10 TDs apiece if Kurt Warner stays healthy. The defense has players at each level who make plays every week. DE Bert Berry will not play Sunday, however. Brett Favre should thank God.

I think the Jets are a middle of the road team. Now that the New York media has gotten over the honeymoon with Favre, they know what football people already know: Brett Favre is AVERAGE. Their receivers, while being guys who I like (pause) are not game breakers. The Jets spent tons of money on both sides of the ball to improve and as of right now, they have not seen a return on their investment. I think the Jets will spend the entire game on their heels on both sides of the ball.

Call:
Arizona 38
NY Jets 21
---

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
1 PM

The Old "Bay of Pigs" rivalry (as Chris Berman calls it). It has lost its luster as guys like Warren Sapp, Brett Favre, Antonio Freeman are gone. However, the Bucs still have Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn is back after spending the past six seasons in Atlanta. The Bucs' defense is solid and keeps them in most games. No one knows who the Bucs' QB is from game to game, but Earnest Graham and Dunn get enough done on the ground to make defenses play them honest.

The Packers looked shellshocked against the Cowboys on Monday. No shame in that. I do notsee there being a carryover effect, though. Rodgers is the real deal. The question will be can the Packers control the ball long enough to outscore Tampa Bay? The Bucs typically eat up a lot of clock and their defense still gets it done even without all the big name stars they once had. Ronde Barber makes plays and so do Jermaine Phillips and Brian Kelly. I like the Bucs in this one.

Call:
Green Bay 27
Tampa Bay 30
---

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers.
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
1 PM

The Falcons are surprisingly 2-1. The Panthers are, also. However, I expected the Panthers to be good (I have them winning the NFC South). I thought the Falcons would royally suck for the remainder of this decade and into the next. Matt Ryan's playing some decent ball at QB, and his big play to WR Roddy White last week got me a few fantasy league points LOL

DE John Abraham is still the same guy who always gets 10+ sacks and he will get after Garcia (should Garcia start). Keith Brooking is the QB of the defense and keeps them under control. I figured the loss of DeAngelo Hall would hurt them dearly. Not so (thus far). I like the dimension that RB Michael Turner brings to the Falcons. He makes teams play the Falcons honest, so they cannot just tee off on Ryan, thereby preserving Ryan and lengthening his learning curve.

The Panthers look poised to go on a winning streak. QB Jake Delhomme looked rattled at times versus the Bears, but that is to be expected. WR Steve Smith is back in the fold, and with Muhsin Muhammad on the other side, the Panthers look like the team that went to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. Their offense is intact with two very good running backs. The aforementioned wide receivers are very good, and the defense is healthy. That has been the key for the Panthers the past four years - the relative health of their players, especially on defense. I like the Black Cats in this one.

Call:
Atlanta 24
Carolina 34
---

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
1 PM

The Texans are not as bad as they have looked in their two games. Their Week 3 game versus Baltimore might have been a better barometer of how good they are, but it was rained out due to Hurricane Ike. The Jaguars look like the average team that they are. Allowing DT Marcus Stroud to go to Buffalo in free agency was borderline lunacy. But hey, I'm not their capologist.

I think Andre Johnson lined up against Rasean Mathis is palpable TV. Mathis might get an INT, but I think Johnson will have about 8-10 catches for over 100 yards in this game.

The problem the Texans have is stopping the run. The Jaguars run the ball very well with Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew (questionable) and Greg Jones. Should be a close, low-scoring game. I think the Texans notch their first win.

Call:
Houston 19
Jacksonville 14
---

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
1 PM

Everytime these teams play, it is high scoring. They gave us a 51-45 last year and the game before that was high scoring as well. Both teams are a disgrace defensively, especially when stopping the run (although the Bengals did a surprisingly good job versus the Giants in Week 3). I see another shootout. Neither team has changed personnel or philosophy since last year. And I see Cleveland pulling it out because the Bengals just aren't good at all; which is a shame, with Carson Palmer, Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh on offense.

Call:
Cleveland 48
Cincinnati 44
---

San Diego (Super) Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders.
McAfee Coliseum
Oakland, California
4:05 PM

The Chargers got untracked last week versus the Jets on Monday Night Football. I hope my eyes aren't deceiving me, but all those carries (approaching 2,500) are catching up with LaDainian Tomlinson. I know he has a toe injury, but he still looks as if he lost a step. I hope not. The Chargers can score with anyone, though. The defense is better than people think, but they have given up a ton of yards and points early.

I don't see the Raiders giving much of a fight. JaMarcus Russell will be glad to get in the whirlpool Monday after he gets sacked a half dozen times.

Call:
San Diego 41
Oakland 16
---

Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams.
The Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
4:05 PM

So the Rams switched QBs from Marc Bulger to Trent Green. *sigh*. This reeks of desperation on the part of head coach Scott Linehan. He might be gone before the end of this season if the Rams keep playing like this. They are the absolute worst team in the NFL -- the same NFL with the Raiders and Chiefs! Bulger isn't the problem. They just have an awful offensive line. They let WR Isaac Bruce leave. WR Torry Holt has lost a step. RB Stephen Jackson cannot find holes in his turnstile of an offensive line. The defense is cavernous. They brought in a career backup and released a starter? I don't get it. The Rams don't have a plan. They look like Jimmy Carter at the end of his term in the White House in 1980-81! (History buffs know what I am referring to).

The Bills are for real. They may very well win the division. No other AFC East team is as balanced on both sides of the ball as Buffalo is. The Patrios are long in the tooth defensively. QB Matt Cassel will see more of the same pressure for the rest of the season. The Jets are middle of the road at best. The Dolphins think they are onto something because they got away with a few trick plays against a slow defense. Big deal. Watch out for the Bills.

Call:
Buffalo 47
St. Louis 21
---

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys.
Texas Stadium
Irving, Texas
4:15 PM

I suppose I gave the Redskins too much of a learning curve in Jim Zorn's version of the West Coast Offense. They matched up well with the Saints in Week 2 and last week handled the wide-open Arizona offense. That tells me something. DE Jason Taylor is out indefinitely with a potentially career/life-threatening blood clot in his leg.
The Cowboys better not enter this game with a smug demeanor. Their receivers will not run free this week like they did versus Green Bay in the second half of their Week 3 game. FS LaRon Landry will meet WR Terrell Owens in the middle of the field a time or two. However, I don't see any of the Redskins' DBs stopping Owens or Crayton.
This game will be close.

Call:
Washington 35
Dallas 34
---

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears.
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
8:15 PM (Sunday Night Football - NBC)

Why are the Bears on national TV so much? They are an eyesore.

Anyway, the Eagles are very good, but not better than Dallas or the NY Giants. That said, every team in the NFC East is better than the rest of the teams in the NFC except the Carolina Panthers. That may very well be the six-team lineup in the playoffs, if not for the 4 division winners automatically getting playoff bids (making the NFC North winner a waste of space, and preventing the 4th NFC East team from making the playoffs rightfully). I see Dallas and New York battling for the NFC East title, the one who doesn't get it gets the 5 seed, I see Philly making it and I see Chicago (now) winning the NFC North and the Cardinals winning the NFC West. Nonetheless, the Bears are the Smoke & Mirrors team of 2008. They are a joke offensively, but hey, they don't turn the ball over too much to the point where it kills them. Defensively, they're stout as always. They will get after Donovan F. McNabb, especially if B. Westbrook cannot play.

I can't name four guys on the Bears' offense (just kidding), but most people can't. Starting with their RB. However, this game will be close. The Iggles are too inconsistent to run away from decent-to-above average teams. The Bears are somewhere between decent and above average. Hence...

Call:
Philadelphia 25
Chicago 27
---

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
8:30 PM (Monday Night Football - ABC)

The Ravens? Hmmm... they are somewhat like Chicago. They have a rookie QB in Joe Flacco. RB Willis McGahee is back in the lineup. They have no-name WRs and a patched up offensive line, following the retirement of Jonathan Ogden. They seem to get it done, nonetheless.

The Steelers looked unbeatable until last week. The Iggles showed what teams need to do in order to get Roethlisberger out of his comfort zone. Teams like Philly, Baltimore and NY Giants, teams the Steelers must face this year, have the personnel to emulate what the Iggles did last week. I think Big Ben will look more like Tiny Tim after this game also. The Ravens are tough. ON THE ROAD...

Call:
Baltimore 24
Pittsburgh 17
---

Back on Tuesday with commentary...