M.D. Wright
10.2.09
Another great week for my picks both straight up and ATS.
Week 1: 11-5.
Week 2: 11-5.
Week 3: 11-5.
NOW, we begin to see what teams are really made of, with the Saints hosting the Jets and Ravens going to New England. Let's get it!
Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Over/Under: 42.5
HOU: -8.5
OAK: +320
HOU: -400
Oakland is getting 8.5? I don't trust Houston's defence enough to cover that. One of the safe wagers this week may be to take the Raiders to cover. I wouldn't take them straight up because they don't have even a semi-competent QB; but they will be able to run the ball against Houston and there will be some deep plays to be had (the ONE thing Russell "excels" at).
Pick:
Oakland 16
Houston 21
FINAL
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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
Over/Under: 41.5
JAX: +3
TEN: -150
JAX: +130
Ugly game. Do the Titans finally get off the schnide (no)? Are the Jaguwires irreparable (yes)? I hate watching these two teams play against ANYONE.
Johnson should get yards against the Jags' front seven, but I don't see MJD doing the same against the Titans. That's the only palpable matchup.
Pick:
Tennessee 17
Jacksonville 16
FINAL
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Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 44.5
NE: -1.5
PICK 'EM
This will be one of the best games this weekend if it goes like I expect. The Ravens aren't playing defence at QUITE the calibre of the teams from earlier in the decade -- which were defences for the AGES -- but they are still very formidable. Thomas will be dirty.
Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should get good yardage against the Patriots' front. I take the Ravens to cover, take the over and if there is a money line by game time, take the Ravens' as well.
Pick:
Baltimore 24
New England 20
FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
Over/Under: 37.5
CLE: +6
CIN: -260
CLE: +220
The Bengals are riding high off two impressive wins -- and what could possibly have been a 3-0 start, if not for a fluky play to end the game Week 1 vs. Denver. The Browns are so inept (led by their monumentally inept head coach) that the Bengals will cover those 6 points they're giving to the Browns. UGH, the Browns should've just cut their losses when the old Browns left to go to Baltimore and become the Ravens. They have been disgusting all but one year since they re-entered the NFL in 1999.
Pick:
Cincinnati 27
Cleveland 9
FINAL
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New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
Over/Under: 42
KC: +8.5
NYG: -400
KC: +320
Yawn.
Pick:
NY Giants 31
Kansas City 10
FINAL
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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
Over/Under: 40.5
CHI: -10.5
DET: +375
CHI: -475
There is NO reason THIS Bears team should be giving 10 1/2 points to the Lions DEAR GOD. Is Vegas trying to lure people in for the kill with that -475 ha? The Bears are still an ugly team, even if they've won twice (somehow). This game will be close and it may come down to a fluky play or two.
Pick:
Detroit 21
Chicago 24
FINAL
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
Over/Under: 36.5
WAS: -7.5
TB: +280
WAS: -340
The Skins? Giving away 7.5 points? Maybe it is because a 2nd year player is starting for the Bucs this week. But the Skins are a train wreck themselves -- especially offensively. THE BUCS WILL COVER. Josh Johnson will confound the Skins with his ability to run.
Pick:
Tampa Bay 16
Washington 13
FINAL
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lukas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Over/Under: 43.5
IND: -10
SEA: +425
IND: -550
And the Peyton train rolls on. Even with Addai in and out of the lineup, with Gonzalez out. With Garçon taking Marv Harrison's role and doing it pretty well thus far. Even with Freeney out defensively, the Colts will still score 30 and win going away.
The Seabags have three running backs and at the same time don't have one. Will Hasselbeck be out? What do they even have? Their FG kicker can't even make a timely kick.
Pick:
Seattle 13
Indianapolis 34
FINAL
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New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Over/Under: 45
NO: -7
NYJ: +250
NO: -300
WHAT ON EARTH? The Jets GETTING 7 points ha? Brees hasn't been pressured all season. He will be Sunday. Those passing stats and 40.5 PPG numbers will come down -- drastically. The game is still going over, though. Between the pass rush on Brees, the Saints' lack of a consistent running game, the Jets' ABILITY to run the ball and manage the clock with time-consuming possessions, this game should cause Vegas to cough up some big chips ha. Jets will cover, win straight up and the +250 doesn't seem that far-fetched at all. Brees to Colston falls short at the end.
Pick:
NY Jets 28
New Orleans 27
FINAL
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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
Over/Under: 37
PICK 'EM
Agh. But hey, the Bills NEVER traveled to Miami well -- even in the 90s when they were good. They do get Marshawn Lynch back and the Fish are playing their backup QB at this point. The Wildcat Offence should work against a slow Buffalo front 7.
Pick:
Buffalo 26
Miami 17
FINAL
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St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
Over/Under: 36.5
SF: -9.5
STL: +350
SF: -450
The Rams don't warrant a write-up.
Pick:
St. Louis 6
San Francisco 24
FINAL
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
Over/Under: 42
DEN: +3
DAL: -145
DEN: +125
The Cowboys are trying to get on a roll after a non-convincing win vs. Carolina on Monday night. Marion Barber may be out, along with Felix Jones. The Broncos figure to fall back to earth soon enough, however. They are like the '07 Packers -- doing it ALL with smoke and mirrors.
Pick:
Dallas 27
Denver 20
FINAL
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San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 42.5
PIT: -6
SD: +225
PIT: -265
Should be a good game here. The Chargers' weak run defence vs. the Steelers weak running game. The Steelers' passing game against the Chargers' underrated secondary. The Chargers passing game against the injured and hampered Steelers' passing game. The Chargers get Tomlinson back for this game also. Finally, revenge for the Chargers.
Pick:
San Diego 31
Pittsburgh 27
FINAL
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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 45.5
MIN: -3.5
GB: +160
MIN: -190
Hopefully, this game lives up to all the hype and billing. All the Favre talk. Peterson should have a game for the ages. This game should be fun to watch. The Vikes will need another Favre come-from-behind drive to win. I think they get it, at home.
Pick:
Green Bay 23
Minnesota 28
FINAL
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Looking to go 12-4 or 13-3 for the first time this year.
As always, WHO CAN PICK 'EM BETTER THAN MR. (ALMOST ALWAYS) WRIGHT???
