Super Bowl XLIII: Grand Central Terminal Edition - All Passengers Please Exit, Watch The Closing Doors Please
M.D. Wright
1.21.09
Ahhhh, so the season comes to an end on February 1. I hate to see the NFL season go dear God. But at least I have college ball and just three weeks until Pitchers & Catchers report. Call me a maverick if you want, but in my book, the Cards should NOT be 'dogs here. I will explain...
SUPER BOWL XLIII
Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Money Line: ARZ (+220), PIT (-260)
Line: PIT -7
Over/Under: 46.5
So Vegas likes PIT? I think that line is ridiculous and the result of Steeler fans outnumbering Cardinal fans 15:1 nationwide. Vegas likes this. It gives them more room for error and the over/under is not a reach. They will come to regret this, though, because the Steelers will not cover.
Early suggestion: TAKE THE CARDS AND THE OVER!!! Anyone who thinks this game is going UNDER with THAT offense (PIT/PHI = wash, in terms of defence -- Cards put up 30+ on 1) a good defence in the Fulcons... 2) a VERY GOOD defence in the Panthers and 3) a GREAT defence in the Iggles. Do you see the pattern? They are not going to stop the Cardinals. Who can cover Larry Fitzgerald? Alicia Keys sang the answer to you throughout 2008. You already know.
The NFL is about matchups. Not "history" and "omens" when almost none of these guys playing on February 1, 2009 WERE THERE!!! Throw that nonsense out. Anyone who has played football on any level knows it is all about individual matchups and units matching up. It also comes down to coaching decisions and abilities to think quickly. Since this is the last game, I'm going to go all out and give a position by position analysis, even down to the coaches.
Coaches
PIT: Head Coach Mike Tomlin
ARZ: Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt
These guys each have two years of head coaching experience under their belts and pretty much cancel each other out. Neither has an advantage over the other at this point.
Advantage: PUSH
PIT: Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians
ARZ: Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley
Arians' game plan is certainly very conservative. PIT fancies the running game (although Roethlisberger passes more lately than ever). Todd Haley masterminded an explosive offence that was atop the NFC in scoring this year. Enough said.
Advantage: ARZ
PIT: Defensive Coordinator Dick LeBeau
ARZ: Defensive Coordinator Clancy Pendergast
Dick LeBeau has been in the NFL longer than Pendergast, Whisenhunt and Haley COMBINED. This is the guy who revolutionized the 3-4 defence and helped implement the Zone Blitz and other schemes that we see today. Even though they have an impregnable defence, the Cards WILL score 27 points on them. More on that later.
Pendergast has had the Cards playing defence as they did the first half of the season, and they will need to continue playing the way they have for the first 2 1/2 games they have played great defence in this playoffs. The Cards are active and have a half dozen real playmakers (Dockett, Berry, Dansby, LaBoy, Rolle, Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC) -- as well as Hood). PIT is a great unit overall, but they have no more big playmakers than ARZ does. This is why I do not believe the Steelers should be heavily favored.
Advantage: PIT
PIT: Special Teams Coach Bob Ligashesky
ARZ: Special Teams Coach Kevin Spencer
The Cards are definitely more active on the defensive side of special teams. The Steelers are just steady. Nothing impressive.
Advantage: PUSH
Quarterbacks
PIT: Ben Roethlisberger.
ARZ: Kurt Warner.
Kurt actually WON a Super Bowl, and went to another which they could have won. This is his third. Roethlisberger rode Jerome Bettis, the defence's coattails and WOEFUL officiating to his Super Bowl "win" in 2005. Kurt is staggeringly accurate, even in the face of a great defence (see last week vs. PHI). 7 likes to keep every play alive to get on SportsCenter. He will throw 2 INT in this game. 2009 ARZ = 2008 NYG -- except in reverse, the Offense gets all the publicity for the Cards, and rightfully so, but that's not ALL that does it for them. Much like the 2008 Giants' defence. The 2008 Giants' offence was very good in its own right, but people liked to focus on the defence. The 2009 Cards' defence is very, VERY good.
Advantage: ARZ (heavy).
Running Backs
PIT: Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, Gary Russell.
ARZ: Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, JJ Arrington.
Parker is a potential game-breaker, but he won't be doing any of that against the Cardinals' defence on Super Bowl Sunday. Edge has been getting totes of late and he can at least keep the Steelers' defence honest against the run; which sets up the Cards' passing game. The other guys are a wash, as they pretty much do the exact same things.
Advantage: PUSH.
Fullbacks
Neither team really uses theirs. Every now and then the Cards pass to Terrelle Smith.
Advantage: PUSH.
Tight Ends
PIT: Heath Miller.
ARZ: Leonard Pope.
Miller is a better all-around player; he blocks, catches, and runs better than Pope who commits silly penalties too often -- and drops passes that he should catch 99% of the time.
Advantage: PIT.
Wide Receivers
PIT: Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, Limas Sweed.
ARZ: Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban.
Larry Fitzgerald is the best WR in the NFL. Anquan Boldin is not far behind. Steve Breaston is already very good at working the slot. No one on PIT can cover Fitzgerald. That's a given. If they double him, Boldin and Breaston can run free. Get it?
Ward is very good at agitating defensive players with his constant smiling (which comes off as taunting and rubs people the wrong way). He's the best blocking WR in the NFL (Muhammad a close 2nd). Holmes is a do-it-all guy who even returns punts. Washington is a possession receiver with great speed (rarity) and Sweed is emerging.
Advantage: ARZ (only on the strength of Fitzgerald).
Offensive Line
PIT: Max Starks, Chris Kemoeatu, Justin Hartwig, Darnell Stapleton, Willie Colon (Ah Ah, Oh No)
ARZ: Mike Gandy, Reggie Wells, Lyle Sendlehein, Deuce Lutui, Levi Brown
PIT: They lost a couple of starters, but are still very good. Starks = best on the line.
ARZ: Underrated unit that plays together and pass blocks better than any team not named Philadelphia or New York Giants. Mike Gandy and Max Starks = Push.
Advantage: PUSH
Defensive Line
PIT: Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel
ARZ: Bert Berry, Antonio Smith, Darnell Dockett (From?!), Bryan Robinson
Considering PIT runs a 3-4, their line is more about run stuffing and dominating the point of attack. Their linebackers make more plays. ARZ's defencive line sets up the back seven.
Advantage: ARZ (slight)
Linebackers
PIT: LaMarr Woodley, James Farrior, Larry Foote, James Harrison
ARZ: Chike Okeafor/Travis LaBoy (both switch up playing OLB and DE), Karlos Dansby, Gerald Hayes
The Blitzburg linebackers lived up to their billing against this year. There isn't a better corps than this. The Cards are young and up and coming, but they cannot generate the pressure that the Steelers can.
Advantage: PIT
Defensive Secondary
PIT: Ike Taylor, DeShea Townsend, Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu
ARZ: Roderick Hood, Adrian Wilson, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Taylor and Townsend are lackeys. Taylor's game doesn't match his talk. Clark is a hard hitter (he's been doing a lot more of what he did to McGahee; but total clean/legal -- all year). Polamula, while good, is not as omnipresent as Steeler fans like to think.
Everyone in the Cards' defensive backfield has big play potential
Advantage: ARZ (slight - on the strength of DRC).
Kicking Game/Special Teams
Wash, although if Rackers kicks another ball out of bounds, it could spell doom. Reed is a solid kicker. Not spectacular. Both teams return games are decent.
Advantage: PUSH
Based upon this, and the aforementioned FACT that no one can cover Larry Fitzgerald, I believe the Cards can and will make a few more plays than the Steelers.
Call:
Arizona 27
Pittsburgh 21
SEE YA IN AUGUST!
