M.D. Wright
10.10.09
We're at the quarter-mark for the season. We know who the real contenders are (and there are only 5... maybe 6) and the imposters (20-23 teams) and who the PUTRID STINK BOMBS are (i.e. read the Powre Rankings). Picks should become easier this week. Fantasy Football becomes less of a pick 'em challenge. Winning percentages in straight-ups, Against the Spreads, Over/Unders and Money Lines should be close to .800 for us experts. With that said, let's get down to it for Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
Over/Under: 41
STL: +10
MIN: -550
STL: +425
I meant what I said. I'm not writing anything about a game involving the Rams until I see an NFL team again.
Pick:
Minnesota 31
St. Louis 10
FINAL
---------------
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
Over/Under: 42.5
KC: +8
DAL: -380
KC: +310
Sucks to be a fan of Missouri NFL teams doesn't it ha? However, the Chiefs try hard. They are a feisty bunch. Even if they're only half good. This won't be a blowout and the Chiefs WILL cover, because Romo will keep them in it. Expect big games from Hali and Derrick Johnson. Dallas will win, but they don't cover and it won't go over.
Pick:
Dallas 21
Kansas City 17
FINAL
--------------
Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Over/Under: 37.5
CAR: -4
WASH: +170
CAR: -210
The Skins finally win a game? Hmmmm... I like them here, even if they are PUTRID offensively. But I won't pick them because I think Jake finally shows up and gets the ball to old man Steve and Moose at will against the underwhelming Skins' D. Stay away from this game with the lines and the spread -- however, I DO like the UNDER here.
Pick:
Washington 13
Carolina 17
FINAL
---------------
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 41.5
PHI: -15.5
TB: +750
PHI: -1500
The Iggles' money line is -1500 DEAR GOD HA. And they're giving the Bucs 16 points??? *DEAD*. The thing is, they're not totally far-fetched, but I don't trust the Iggles' defence enough to cover that. I barely see this game going over. The Bucs have no heart and since they're not going anywhere this season, you'd think coach Morris would not play so close to the vest (had an opportunity to win Week 4 vs. Washington but settled for a FG on a 4th and 1 instead of going for the TD).
Pick:
Tampa Bay 16
Philadelphia 27
FINAL
---------------
Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Over/Under: 37.5
NYG: -15.5
OAK: +750
NYG: -1200
I almost typed the same write-up from the last game. Vegas likes the home teams playing east against two of the worst teams in football. Expected. But I never trust the Giants giving any more than 8-10 points MAX. Especially given their propensity for letting teams hang around, or come back late with garbage points (ONCE AGAIN Week 4 vs. Kansas City).
Eli will play and the Giants will be able to do whatever they want on both sides of the ball. If they cover, it will be because Russell throws 2 TDINTs.
Pick:
Oakland 9
NY Giants 31
FINAL
--------------
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
Over/Under: 41
BUF: -6
CLE: +330
BUF: -260
The Bills are sloppy. I gave them too much credit early on. They are going to let the Browns hang around even if they SHOULD cover those 6 points they're giving CLE rather easily. Lynch is back, Owens needs a catch in the worst way but Edwards is no better than Anderson. Ugly game. I hate it for regional viewers who won't have a better game available.
Pick:
Cleveland 13
Buffalo 19
FINAL - OT
-----------------------
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Over/Under: 42
BAL: -9
CIN: +330
BAL: -420
Tricky game. The Bengals -- are they really good? Can the Ravens really stop anyone? I don't see the Ravens covering, that's all I know. I can run down all the individual matchups or unit vs. unit, but that -9 is high.
TAKE THE OVER, however.
Pick:
Cincinnati 27
Baltimore 31
FINAL
--------------
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
Over/Under: 44
DET: +10.5
PIT: -550
DET: +425
The Lions are game. The Steelers miss Polamalu. This game will be close.
Pick:
Pittsburgh 26
Detroit 20
FINAL - OT
----------------------
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
Over/Under: 40.5
SF: -2.5
ATL: +120
SF: -140
All the positive things that can be said about the FULCONS go out the window when they travel. Especially WEST. I don't see them doing anything offensively in this game. They're going to be just as sloppy as they were against the Patriots.
Pick:
Atlanta 17
San Francisco 27
FINAL
---------------
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field
Denver, Colorado
Over/Under: 41
DEN: +3
NE: -175
DEN: +155
Should be a good game. We will know what the Broncos are after this one. Not that the Patriots are the Colts, Giants or Saints, or even the Vikings, but it is the closest thing to a great team the Broncos will have played. I still think this Broncos' outfit is a replay of the '07 Packers that won 13-3 by smoke and mirrors all season before the real team came out in the NFC Championship game. Don't be surprised if the Broncos win, especially with how they've played defence lately. But I dunno about this one. Especially with the Broncos getting 3 points at home.
THE OVER LIVES, however.
Pick:
New England 28
Denver 31
FINAL
---------------
Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Over/Under: 50
ARI: -6
HOU: +200
ARI: -240
Not worth wagering on -- not even the OVER, with the way the Cards have played on offence. The UNDER has a chance when Kurt is off, WHICH CAN HAPPEN. Although the Texans will score 30+ anyway, it won't really matter either way. I like the Cards at home, but not covering.
Pick:
Houston 31
Arizona 33
FINAL
---------------
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Over/Under: 44
Pick 'em
Ugly game. Do I even need to write up about this? Even Vegas doesn't care to get over on their typical 65% of bettors for a game like this. Just take the under and g'home.
Pick:
Jacksonville 20
Seattle 17
FINAL - OT
----------------------
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 45.5
TEN: +3.5
IND: -190
TEN: +160
Let's see. The Colts are playing out of their minds and they're only giving the Titans -- who can't do anything well right now -- 4 points? Hmmm. The Raiders and Bucs are getting SIXTEEN points in their games. The Titans really AREN'T that good. They're not 0-4 bad, but they're not a good team. Vince may play and that may keep them close enough to cover, but otherwise -- eh.
Pick:
Indianapolis 34
Tennessee 17
FINAL
------------------
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 36
MIA: +1.5
The Jets get no respect. But they will rebound here. The Fins have a 2nd year backup starting. No wildcat. BUT SEMINOLE LIVES. Leon Washington, FROM?!?!
Pick:
NY Jets 27
Miami 21
FINAL
----------------
Recaps with the picks and Week 4 results coming late Monday after MNF.
