NFL Week 6 Picks
Michael D. Wright
10.10.08
I'm going to get my picks in earlier this week, in lieu of NC A&T's Homecoming Festivities this weekend. I am definitely not going to have time to assess things tomorrow. So if guys are ruled out for Sunday's games sometime Saturday or at game-time, give me some slack when it comes to picks (i.e. guys like Brian Westbrook and Roddy White).
There should not be that many upsets this week. We are starting to find out who each team is at this point.
I don't have much else to add at this point, let's get to the picks:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
The Ravens have the stingiest defense in the NFL. The Colts have the most benevolent (regardless of DE Dwight Freeney's status for the game). I could look like Adrian Peterson rushing against the Colts. It's going to be tough for either team to score points -- the Colts, because of the Ravens' defense; the Ravens, because... well, they're the Ravens. In a game with a matchup like this, I want to favor the defense, but I still think the Colts will pull it out in the end. They're still looking real Muhammad Ali in 1980, though...
Call:
Baltimore 10
Indianapolis 21
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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
The Lions are battling the Rams for rights to call themselves the worst teams in the NFL. I'm not going to waste any of my 1,500 words on them. The Vikings proved some moxie in New Orleans on Monday. Should be an easy win for them. The Lions are like running over something, thinking it was a nail, looking back to see it was nothing but a twig.
Detroit 6
Minnesota 23
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Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana SuperDome
New Orleans, Louisiana
The Raiders are getting better incrementally. That is not to say that they have "arrived" yet. The Saints are like a toothless lion... much like the Detroit Lions are -- all growl and at the end of the day, might come out of the scuffle with a few scrapes from their offense and a few close calls with their bites -- until you find out they are toothless (i.e. unable to close out games or stop ANYONE). This is one of the few upsets I see brewing. The Raiders defense isn't all that bad, and offensively, as long as they are able to run the ball, they can keep up with the Saints.
Oakland 24
New Orleans 20
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium at the New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
The Bengals aren't QUITE as bad as their 0-5 record may suggest. They are competitive. They have been in every game. Their defense isn't even as bad as it has been the past three years. Their offense (handicapped by QB Carson Palmer's inaccurate throws and banged up throwing arm) is hit-and-miss. They have far too much talent to be playing so spotty. RB Chris Henry's Tiki Barberitis doesn't help, either.
The Jets are getting too much publicity for their 56 points against the Cardinals. True, 56 is 56. However, they ran up the score when game was out of reach and they caught Cards' QB Kurt Warner in one of Those Games he has once a month where everytime he gets sacked he fumbles and he tosses a couple of INTs to boot. The Jets scored defensively a couple of times in that game as well. That is not to take anything from them. Just don't read too much into that; thinking that is more indicative of the Jets. It is not. They are still a 7-9, 8-8 team. I actually think the Bengals will win this game regardless if Carson Palmer plays or not. Yes, I said it.
Call:
Cincinnati 31
NY Jets 27
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Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
The Bears are hard to figure out. Their defense isn't. They are KILLERS. As for the offense, QB Kyle Orton isn't just "managing" the offense; he is getting it done. I just do not know how long or how consistently you can count on that. Atlanta's QB is matching him. The running games are similar, although I would give the Bears a bit of an edge running against the Falcons vs. Michael Turner running against the Bears' defense. Stranger things have happened. For the sake of uniformity and consistency with my picks, I'm going to play it safe and take the Bears in a close one here. I am tempted to take the Falcons because John Abraham WILL sack Orton twice. You can mark that down. Will Orton fumble, leading to a TD? That is the question. Points will be hard to come by, which is why such a question is pivotal.
Call:
Chicago 13
Atlanta 9
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Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
The Panthers are bubbling below the surface like an underground rapper who has yet to be signed. No one is mentioning them, because of the Giants' stellar play, the Redskins' resurgence and the Cowboys' annual soap opera. They probably prefer it that way. Makes things easier? They have a consistent leader in QB Jake Delhomme, a two-headed running game which I have written about several times, a tandem of WRs who work off each other and a healthy defense. The Bucs only have a healthy defense. Easy math.
Call:
Carolina 34
Tampa Bay 17
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St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
The Rams are the worst team in the NFL. The Redskins are amongst the top three right now. I know "that's WHY they play the games..." but not in this one.
Call:
St. Louis 13
Washington 28
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Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Those tricky Dolphins and their Wildcat Offense! For the life of me, I do not know why teams don't just stay in their gaps against this, when they can clearly see there is only one back in the backfield and it isn't the QB. I know my football, so I am not oversimplifying this. The Texans look inept, which is shocking to me. I honestly had them winning 11 games this year, given that they are healthy and in their fourth year in Head Coach Gary Kubiak's offense. Their offensive line just isn't that good (which makes whatever yards RB Steve Slaton gets even more eye-popping; by the way, I'm starting him this week in fantasy -- about to be 5-1 and leading my league... hah)
Neither team has a fearsome defense, although I believe DE Mario Williams should have a field day against rookie LT Jake Long. This is your classic stayaway game. Pick 'em!
Call:
Miami 30
Houston 28
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos
Invesco Field at Mile High
Denver, Colorado
The Jags are an enigma. However, I should not have expected that much from them and their hamheaded offensive philosophy and the loss of DT Marcus Stroud. They're just a little above average. That LITTLE being when their WRs decide to catch the ball. They bend and rarely break on defense, but aside from CB Rasean Mathis, they don't have any playmakers.
The Broncos are night and day when it comes to their offense and defense. Although they looked like the 70s Orange Crush defense against a stodgy offense in Tampa Bay last week, they aren't that good defensively either. QB Jay Cutler should be able to pick apart a Jag defense that is penalty-prone. QB David Garrard CAN do the same to the Broncos, but his WRs are so very inconsistent it is painful to watch. WR Matt Jones COULD lead the NFL in receiving if he would be precise in his cuts and not take plays off. RB Fred Taylor should do his thing, since the Broncos haven't stopped ANYONE on the ground this year (except LaDainian Tomlinson, ironically). This could be high-scoring.
Call:
Jacksonville 31
Denver 41
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
The Eagles got hit with a dose of reality this week. I do not wish injuries on anyone, not even a player that I HATE -- in Brian Westbrook. Not at all. I'm dead serious. I was disheartened to hear about him being out with an ankle and ribs. Most of this vitriol is directed at QB Donovan McNabb, who has obviously moved up to drinking Scotch during training camp, because for whatever reason he TRULY believed the Iggles were made of the same fiber of the Giants, Redskins (and was "embarrassed" because his middle-of-the-road team lost to a legitimate Super Bowl contender? GO FIGURE!) and even Dallas? No way. Not with every single player healthy on that team are they anymore than third in the NFC East. And that THIRD is basically saying that they would have beaten Dallas if all their WRs had been healthy for that game. I did not understand the talk in August and I definitely was vindicated for that belief after these past couple of games.
The 49ers are trying to get Mike Nolan fired. This loss is just another coal on the fire under Nolan's seat. Unfortunate. Nolan is a very good coach, but he's trying to make authentic spaghetti without any sauce with that team. They are game, though.
Call:
Philadelphia 35
San Francisco 24
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Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
The Seahawks are in DEEP TROUBLE with all those injuries on offense. Their defense WAS good, but they spend 40 minutes a game on the field. That is never good. The Packers will get back on track here.
Call:
Green Bay 37
Seattle 17
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
See, this is one of those games where if I had not heard about WR Anquan Boldin being held out, my pick would have swung dramatically. Do I think Dallas can slow down Arizona even without Boldin? NO WAY. They are slow and as I have said a half dozen times already this year, without DE DeMarcus Ware, they are not even an average defense (which is what they are, despite what their delusional fans think). Sure, I expect Ware to get to QB Kurt Warner a couple of times; as I expect DE Bert Berry to do to Romo. Romo will also try to overdo it and fumble much like he did vs. Cincinnati. However, Boldin being out makes me less BOLD about picking Arizona definitively, as I would have, say, three weeks ago.
Call:
Dallas 38
Arizona 44
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New England Patriots vs. San Diego (Super) Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL *
The Patriots go to the West Coast for two straight games. The first one, vs. SF was a methodical beatdown in their favor. I believe the Chargers will return that favor (as well as exact revenge -- somewhat; since it is not 100% fulfilling without QB Tom Brady in the game) while RB LaDainian Tomlinson FINALLY puts together a solid game. The Patriots are looking VERRRRRY smoke and mirrors right now. I think the lights, stage and sense of urgency will get the Chargers fired up like they were in the Jet game earlier this year.
Call:
New England 27
San Diego 45
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New York Football Giants vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
* MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL *
The Browns talked trash all week about stopping the Giants' offense. Please explain the a) validity, b) possibility and c) NEED TO SAY THAT on their part? Once the comments from Browns' DT Corey Williams reached Giants' RB Brandon Jacobs Thursday, things were guaranteed to be hard-hitting Monday. The Giants are the most complete team in the NFL. They feature the best offense, defense (top to bottom, not by the stupid standards that the statisticians use to consider for the #1 spot -- although they are 2nd in points allowed and first in the NFC in everything else). I have already used up too many words dignifying that. The Browns aren't even as good as the Bengals, who they only beat because the Bengals were starting an inept backup.
Call:
NY Giants 51
Cleveland 13
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Comments Monday.
As politically incorrect as I wanna be.
