NFL Championship Weekend Bettor's Guide
M.D. Wright
1.23.10
***EDITOR'S NOTE: The AFC and NFC Championship Games will be played at 3:05 PM and 6:45 PM EST respectively on Sunday, January 24, 2010. The AFC/NFC Pro Bowl will be played the following weekend -- BETWEEN the Conference Championships and Super Bowl XLIV.
The picks:
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
AFC Championship
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Sunday, January 24, 2010
3:05 PM EST
Over/Under: 40
IND: -8
NYJ: +280
IND: -340
Let's see. If you're a Bettor, you don't like these figures. If you're confident, you at least take the Jets to cover, but that's about it. That O/U is a tease for sure. As much as the game has makings for being a 20-10 Colts win, it could easily end up being 31-23, Colts. If you're confident, I'd stick with the UNDER and hope that the Jets' defense and running game serve as the best defense against Peyton Manning's league-best QB play.
IMPORTANT MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR:
Colts' WR Reggie Wayne vs. Jets' CB Darrelle Revis
Why:
Everyone makes a big deal out of Revis' league-best play at CB with regards to shutting down the absolute best WRs in the NFL. Reggie Wayne is certainly in the Top 5 in NFL WRs (#5 in my book, as of January 2010) and runs some of the most precise routes of any WR in the game. He also has impeccable hands, making some of the best catches of the year perennially.
Revis has "it". And whatever "IT" is... well, he's got it -- as John Madden used to day. He has the speed, his backpedal is by-the-book (as a former CB, I know), he reads the football better than most of the WRs in the game, and whenever the best of the best DO manage to get by him, he has the closing ability to get back into position to make a play on the ball and the WR. He is almost never out of position, even when the Jets are playing zone defense. There is something to be said about that.
Potential Outcome:
While Revis may hold Wayne to 3 or 4 catches and inconsequential yardage, it is incumbent upon the rest of the Jets' secondary to hold Collie, Garçon, Clark and Addai (out of the backfield) in check. The Colts have a multitude of weapons. And while the Chargers certainly did as well, along with an equally inept running game, the Colts actually do run the ball well when they NEED to. The Chargers don't run the ball well because Tomlinson is declining rapidly and Sproles isn't an every down back. Addai can carry the load and the Jets also have Donald Brown and Mike Hart to shoulder the load a bit with the carries. The Colts will employ a good bit of play action, crossing routes to Dallas Clark to take advantage of the middle of the field left open at times by the attacking defense. Also, look for the Colts' patented "Stretch Play", which is a longtime Colts' staple -- used best against attacking defenses that overpursue at times. They can play action off this and it could catch the Jets' secondary at times. BE ON LOOKOUT FOR THIS.
Matchup #2:
Jets' QB Mark Sanchez vs. Colts' Defensive Line
Why:
The Jets' offensive line is one of the best in the game. They open major holes for Thomas Jones (who doesn't utilize them adequately all the time, but that's another story) and Shonn Greene (who DOES). If there is a play to be had against the Jets' solid offense, it is against the pass protection. LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson is going to have his hands full with Mr. Whirling Dervish himself, RE Dwight Freeney. The Colts are at full strength with DT Raheem Brock and LE Robert Mathis ready to go. The Jets' offensive line will have to keep a TE or FB Tony Richardson in the backfield quite a bit to chip block on these fast defensive ends for the Colts. If they are able to get to Sanchez with frequency, it could mean bad decisions by Sanchez, which is really the only way to beat the Jets these days.
Potential Outcome:
If the Jets are able to protect Sanchez and give him time to make his progressions, he can make ALL the throws and has not been making rookie mistakes after a bumpy middle of the season. This could mean big days for both the running backs and receivers. And this only serves to inspire their defense, which is always chomping at the bit, due to the feisty nature of head coach Rex Ryan, who basically took the spirit of the Ravens' defense and brought it to New York.
Matchup #3:
Colts' QB Peyton Manning vs. Jets' Defense
Why:
Manning plays mind games with aggressive defenses. He likes to get to them to show their looks pre-snap, read it, audible and make checkdowns based upon what the defense gives him. While this sometimes only yields 6 yard passes in the flat, or a square out to one of the receivers, what it serves to accomplish is slow down the opposing defense, causing them to think -- as opposed to what a defense would rather do: REACT INSTINCTIVELY. Those half-steps and false steps are all Manning needs to get the ball to his receivers. And once the defense begins to sway one way, the running game can get going, and the play-action after that. This is what the Colts will be seeking to do offensively on Sunday. If they are able to do these things, the Jets will always be a step behind Coach Manning.
Potential Outcome:
The Jets have the opportunity to blitz FS Kerry Rhodes or CB Lito Sheppard at times to throw off Manning's timing, but it would have to be timed perfectly. The Colts' line is very athletic and still employs a zone blocking scheme. This enables them to catch the 4th rusher in a 3-4 alignment in space, as well as another rusher from the secondary. Sacks can be had off Manning, and he can throw interceptions if the blitz is disguised perfectly, but the key will be WHEN and WHERE the Jets send their blitzers. Not IF, because the Jets blitz more than anyone in the NFL and are proud of it.
If RB Joseph Addai and company are able to keep the Jets' defense honest with the running game, which the Colts will come out and try to establish early, then this game may very well go UNDER. But the Colts would prefer to get out early and play with it a lead, as opposed to having the Jets play keep away (although the Dolphins tried this earlier this season and still lost -- while managing to keep the football for 45 minutes; which is unheard of) all game.
In short, it will be tough to beat the Colts, especially at home, but the Jets fear no one and are up to the task. They will at LEAST cover, but I just do not feel 100% confident in picking them over the relatively healthy Colts, and I never pick against Manning.
Pick:
NY Jets 17
Indianapolis 23
FINAL
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NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC Championship
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Sunday, January 24, 2010
6:45 PM EST
Over/Under: 53.5
NO: -3.5
MIN: +165
NO: -190
So the Vikes are road dogs? I remember the Vikes playing the Saints back in '88 in the Superdome in the Saints' first ever playoff game. While this team is markedly better (especially offensively, as Jim Mora only had a passing interesting in innovative offense while Saints' Head Coach from 1985-1996), the Vikes are still the better team top to bottom in my opinion.
For you who think that "WHO DAT?!" chant is new... no, it's not.
Footage from the first Saints' home game:
-- which was classic, because I was 9 years old and had my favorite broadcasting team on the call: PAT SUMMERALL AND JOHN MADDEN. It was fun to see the Saints do much like they did last weekend, play off the home crowd early (LB Rickey Jackson got a sack to start this game) and then they got blown out ha. While I think the Vikes will win, it won't be a blowout simply because the Saints' offense is so potent.
Sean Payton STUNK as a player, dirty little traitor SCAB who played during the 1987 Player's Association Strike:
BUT NONETHELESS, HERE IS MY ANALYSIS:
I think Vegas was right with the O/U and wrong by making the Vikes road dogs. The Vikes are on a mission and they are not going to be deterred. Jared Allen is unstoppable (especially with who the Saints feature along their offensive line). Kevin Williams may be dinged up, but he will get after Brees quite a bit, and even big ol' Pat Williams was running down Felix Jones last week vs. Dallas. The Saints just have to hope Brees has the time to get the ball downfield, because much like Tony Romo had been playing relatively well leading up to the Divisional game vs. Minnesota, Brees is doing the same. And few people thought the Vikings would thoroughly dominate the Cowboys' offensive line and flummox Romo all day. No one thinks Brees can be had http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4m_G2Xf3NnQ, but I believe the Saints are in for a long day and the Vikes are going to do Brees much of the same that they did to Romo and much like the underrated Vikes' defense did to the Saints in the '88 NFC Wild Card Playoff 22 years ago.
Pick:
Minnesota 38
New Orleans 23
FINAL
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PRO BOWL IN ONE WEEK.
SUPER BOWL XLIV: Sunday, February 7, 2010, 6:28 PM EST
Miami, Florida
