M.D. Wright
1.3.10
OK, my first post in 2010. I'm late with these picks, so let's cut the prologue.
***FINAL WEEK OF THE NFL REGULAR SEASON
Synopsis, Giants' season wrap-up and Playoff Prognosis coming up this week. STAY TUNED.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
Over/Under: 36
CLE: -1
The Browns are "hot". They've won 3 straight. The Jags are crushed after losing two games they really needed to win -- and after having the all-important-in-the-NFL 'control of their own destiny' just 3 weeks ago. Oh well, the Browns continue to roll and may have something to work toward in 2010?
MJD has been a TD machine in 2009 and he'll probably get one or two, but it won't matter. Jacksonville is traveling to BRICK Cleveland.
Pick:
Jacksonville 17
Cleveland 23
FINAL
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Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
Over/Under: 44
DET: +3
CHI: -170
DET: +150
The Lions should be favored, first of all. They try hard. I knew the Bears would win last week. And no, it wasn't because I needed things to happen so that the Giants would make the playoffs. The Vikings' season has gone exactly like I said it would.
In terms of this game, the Bears have followed up big wins with stinkers and the Lions will give the home team something to cheer about on Sunday.
Pick:
Chicago 13
Detroit 17
FINAL
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New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Over/Under: 46
HOU: -7
NE: +260
HOU: -320
Several things in play here. The Patriots clinch the #3 seed in the AFC Playoffs with a win. The Texans are still alive for the playoffs (pending the outcome of the later games) if they win. They need three teams to lose, however. Nevertheless, the Texans will be desperate and CAN score nearly at-will versus a relatively slow and overrated Patriots defense. The Patriots will be motivated enough to play this game, but I believe they will take their starters out sometime around halftime or the 3rd quarter -- particularly if they are losing. They don't care about playoff positioning -- they just want to make it there and take it from there. The Texans will have a chance to remain alive.
Pick:
New England 20
Houston 31
FINAL
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
Land Shark Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
Over/Under: 45
MIA: +3
PIT: -180
MIA: +160
Dolphins are done, and the Steelers are desperate for a win and help in order to back into the playoffs. I believe the Dolphins will do three things today: 1) Run the ball effectively (thereby keeping the clock moving and Roethlisberger off the field), 2) Stuff the run (not tough to do vs. PIT with no real RB) 3) Thereby crushing PIT's hopes of making the playoffs before they even have a chance to wait and hope that the Jets lose later in the evening.
Pick:
Pittsburgh 23
Miami 27
FINAL
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New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Over/Under: 48
MIA: -7.5
NYG: +290
MIN: -350
The Giants mailed in the season with their season-worst performance against a woeful team last week. They're playing for nothing more than pride on Sunday. Brandon Jacobs went on "IR" (as if it mattered) finally getting arthroscopic knee surgery that he has needed all season (which is why he seemed slow to observers all year from the first carry vs. Washington until Week 16).
The Vikings want to get back on the right track with a win and prove they're not falling apart. They will run at whoever is lined up for the Giants are RE (Umenyiora, Kiwanuka, etc.) and Peterson should have a great game. They also want the coveted first-round playoff bye. They'll achieve all three. Eli Manning will finish the season strongly with probably his overall best game in terms of completions, yardage, percentage and the 3 TDs he needs to surpass 30 for the season. Further underlining his Pro Bowl snub.
Pick:
NY Giants 23
Minnesota 38
FINAL
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
Over/Under: 33
BUF: -8
IND: +310
BUF: -380
Vegas never leaves money on the table. These numbers aren't errors. They know the Colts won't be trying, and even despite the Bills trying, they (Bills) won't score much either ha. But the UNDER seems like a lock. Curtis Painter STUNK OUT the joint last week. Who cares. The Colts are going to regret this when San Diego comes steamrolling into town (and that's provided they beat the Jets in a rematch the prior week). The Colts are locked into the #1 seed, as you all know, so they will be resting their starters possibly the entire game.
And yes, if you are smart, you saw a minor AFC playoff preview right there.
Pick:
Indianapolis 6
Buffalo 9
FINAL
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New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Over/Under: 41.5
CAR: -7
NO: +260
CAR: -320
Saints: on the road, resting starters for at least a half, nothing to play for (but restoring POSITIVE momentum).
Panthers: playing to at least avoid a losing season, pride, helping derail another team's season and finishing strong (and proving they need to ditch Jake Delhomme despite how much they're on the hook for paying him after the ridiculous extension/signing bonus they just gave him months ago). The Saints are locked into the #1 seed in the NFC (although as I've said since Week 6, they'll be ONE AND DONE).
Pick:
New Orleans 13
Carolina 28
FINAL
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San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
Over/Under: 40.5
STL: +8
SF: -350
STL: +290
This 49er team bugs me with their lack of continuity on offense. They have some weapons, but they can never put two good HALVES of football together offensively. Much less two games. Such is the case with their season, the ebbing and flowing, up and down, inconsistent, halfway-played games = .500 season. I figured they'd be 2-3 games better this year since they ended last season strongly. They have not progressed from last season whatsoever.
But these ARE those same ol' sorry ass Rams -- as Tim McDonald, Merton Hanks, Eric Davis and those guys used to say.
Pick:
San Francisco 24
St. Louis 19
FINAL
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Over/Under: 41.5
TB: +1.5
Raheem Morris' last game (IMO). And I like what Josh Freeman has done for the most part. The Falcons are maddeningly average in every regard. I like the Bucs to win.
Pick:
Atlanta 23
Tampa Bay 27
FINAL
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, Texas
***GAME OF THE WEEK***
Over/Under: 47
DAL: -3
PHI: +140
DAL: -160
Dallas has somewhat shut out the talk about their December woes. Although if they lose this game and go back to Philadelphia the next week and lose, they will hear it even louder than ever.
As far as the stakes here, the Cowboys are firmly entrenched as the #6 seed, as the Packers are the #5 seed (having defeated Dallas earlier in the season). Possible playoff foes for Dallas in the Wild Card Weekend: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona. NONE OF WHICH I THINK THEY WILL BEAT, since they'll be on the road and playing defenses that can shut down what has been working for the Cowboys of late.
If Philadelphia wins and Minnesota and Arizona lose their games, the Eagles clinch the #2 seed and a first round bye.
Hence "GAME OF THE WEEK" status.
At the end of the day, I believe the Iggles will be able to get their big plays and keep Dallas off balance on both sides of the ball enough to win by a smidge.
Pick:
Philadelphia 33
Dallas 30
FINAL
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Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Over/Under: 44
ARZ: -3
GB: +145
ARZ: -165
Had the Cards not beaten Minnesota earlier this year, the Packers would have had a cakewalk. As it is, the Cards can potentially get the #2 seed with losses by Philadelphia and Minnesota. They will at least know what the Vikings have done by the time they play. In order words, no "resting starters" for the Cards until they know their fate with respect to the #2 seed. And for what it's worth, I believe they'll play all game nonetheless.
And given that the Packers' defensive ranking is super-inflated and the Cards' defense is the LEGITIMATE one of the two (getting the pressure on Rodgers and shutting down Grant, namely), the Packers aren't going to beat the Cards playing vanilla football (especially if they end up playing again in the Wild Card).
Frnakly, they wouldn't beat the Cards either way.
Pick:
Green Bay 20
Arizona 31
FINAL
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
Over/Under: 44
DEN: -10
KC: +400
DEN: -500
No Marshall and Sheffler? Royal is not 100% even if he plays? Orton stinks? If you want to make a potential big payday, take the Chiefs here. McDaniels and his pulling rank (trying futilely to imitate Belichick) is not going to go over well with the players who WILL be back with Denver next year. Costing them a shot at a playoffs by (in essence) throwing this game is a foolish move.
Pick:
Kansas City 24
Denver 17
FINAL
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
McAfee Coliseum
Oakland, California
Over/Under: 38
OAK: +10.5
BAL: -550
OAK: +425
Why is Baltimore favored by so much? First off, they're traveling west, and the Raiders really aren't a bad team. The Ravens are getting by on past achievements (especially with their defense). A lot of those penalties were esoteric, but they DO commit a ridiculous number of bonehead penalties that are legitimate. One thing that you can label this Ravens team as: (actually, let's say two) 1) They can't close a game to save their lives, whether they were leading late or had the ball with a chance to take the lead and win late and 2) They don't win games they SHOULD and/or NEED to win. They needed to win last week and both of these points were the reason why (TD dropped by Derrick Mason early in the 4th quarter vs. PIT, not taking control of the game late when presented with the opportunity). The Raiders SEEM to be inferior to Baltimore, but are they really?
NO.
The Raiders have finished this season strongly. I picked them to go 7-9, starting slowly and finishing playing respectable football. They've done just that. And they will win this game to go to:
7-9.
Watch out for the Raiders next year if they draft wisely and can get their offensive line in shape.
Pick:
Baltimore 16
Oakland 21
FINAL
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Washington Redskins vs. San Diego Super Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
Over/Under: 39
SD: -3
WSH: +140
SD: -160
Even resting starters the Chargers cruise over this disgusting Redskins outfit. Tumultuous offseason coming up for Washington. And NO THANKS for not beating Dallas last week.
Pick:
Washington 6
San Diego 23
FINAL
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Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Over/Under: 45
SEA: +6
TEN: -260
SEA: +220
The Seabags have no heart, they're soft. Hasselbeck looks like he's 57 back there, and their defense can't stop anyone. The only thing notable about this game is will Chris Johnson get the 140+ yards he needs to surpass 2,000 for the season? (Yes)
WILL HE GET THE 240 (not sure of the exact number -- hadn't memorized it since Monday) HE NEEDS TO PASS ERIC DICKERSON'S ALL-TIME SINGLE SEASON NUMBER OF 2,105?
That's the only palpable aspect of this game.
Pick:
Tennessee 27
Seattle 14
FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 34
NYJ: -9.5
CIN: +375
NYJ: -475
Much has been made about the Jets' gift-wrapped win at the hands of the Colts last week. Whatever. You still have to play. The Colts are still fielding NFL talent. I mention this, because by gametime (this game was flexed to primetime) both teams will know what they will need to do. The Bengals may not play their starters more than a half at most in any situation. This would set up the Jets playing against mostly Bengal backups and having a chance to win and clinch a playoff berth in the process. Regardless of what the Patriots (and by extension, the Bengals) do, the Jets will win and if they play in the Wild Card, the Jets will beat them again. Carson Palmer has had curious numbers all season and Revis can easily take away Chad Ochocinco. Then what? The Jets still feature the best rushing offense AND defense and overall defense. This isn't a team the Bengals want to face in a semi-meaningless regular season game NOR the playoffs.
Pick:
Cincinnati 13
NY Jets 23
FINAL
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PLAYOFFS, SEASON WRAP-UP COMING THIS WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
