NFL Week 16 Bettor's Guide: NO LOCAL SERVICE BETWEEN 14th and 181st Sts Edition
M.D. Wright
12.23.09
I figured I'd send in my picks earlier this week, even though there is no Thursday game (Chargers vs. Titans on FRIDAY, Christmas Day). I'm going to be in and out of Jersey most likely and these are HUGE games. I want to be able to ruminate a bit before laying any numbers.
Here's what I have:
San Diego (Super) Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
***FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL -- CHRISTMAS DAY EDITION***
Over/Under: 47
TEN: -3
SD: +135
TEN: -155
Uhhhh... how are the Titans favored ha? I know Vince has done nothing but win since he got his rightful spot back, and Chris Johnson is the best RB in the league, but these are the BOLTS here. Oh well, it's just a FG handicap, but I honestly think the Chargers are clicking in every facet of the game and they'll win by about 10.
Pick:
San Diego 34
Tennessee 24
FINAL
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Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
Over/Under: 38.5
CLE: -3
OAK: +150
CLE: -170
Browns are favored in a game ha? Wow. I guess Vegas keeled over after watching that pinball match vs. KC last week, huh? The Raiders are going to finish this season 7-9, as I predicted in SEPTEMBER, BTW. So there that go. The under looks REAL good here. Unlike KC, the Raiders DO have a defense.
Pick:
Oakland 20
Cleveland 9
FINAL
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
Over/Under: 40
CIN: -13.5
KC: +550
CIN: -750
The Bengals cannot afford any gaffes (nor legit losses for that matter, because they have not clinched their division yet) and they know it.
Pick:
Kansas City 13
Cincinnati 34
FINAL
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Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida
Over/Under: 45
MIA: -3
HOU: +125
MIA: -145
In a game SATURATED with playoff implications, this one is simply the proverbial cliché: "WIN OR GO HOME". Winner has a chance to make a push for the #6 seed in the AFC. Loser is finished. Miami is in a better position to control a few things with tiebreakers over teams such as NY Jets, New England (should NE falter at all) and if they win this game and beat PIT in Week 17, the head-to-head there as well. The Texans have a propensity to finish seasons strong and/or play spoiler. Tough call. The Dolphins are at home after struggling vs. TEN last week. My GUT says take Miami, but I am thinking the Texans are going to pull this one out of the bag and make things interesting going into Week 17.
Pick:
Houston 26
Miami 24
FINAL
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
Over/Under: 49.5
NO: -14
TB: +625
NO: -850
The Saints were never "invincible" as some people put it, but they had holes all along. Not that the lowly Bucs are going to exploit them or anything.
I'm just saying, playoffs looking forward ha.
Pick:
Tampa Bay 16
New Orleans 35
FINAL
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 43.5
NE: -8
JAX: +290
NE: -350
You know what? The Jags are desperate. The Patriots have not been very impressive of late and have a false sense of security with their lead in the AFC East. But if they lose this game they are in trouble if Miami wins out. I'm going to pick Jacksonville here, because the Jags WILL stick with the running game with a) keeps them in the game and keeps the clock moving and b) keeps Brady, Welker and Moss off the field. I think the defense does just enough to get the win for Jacksonville and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Pick:
Jacksonville 24
New England 20
FINAL
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 42
PIT: -2.5
BAL: +125
PIT: -145
Am I the only person who has this utter disregard for the "toughness of playing in Heinz Field" nonsense? The Ravens aren't moved by this. And all those "since 1992" stats the people like to feature about playing in PIT are irrelevant here. Plain and simple, the Ravens run the ball better, don't give up sacks at an alarming rate like Roethlisberger is prone to do and their defense is playing far better than the Steelers' right now. The Ravens match up better with the Steelers man for man, level for level (defensive line, linebacker, secondary), unit for unit than anyone else other than the Bengals -- who swept PIT this year.
BYE, BYE STEELERS. Season's over.
Pick:
Baltimore 30
Pittsburgh 27
FINAL - OT
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Over/Under: 41.5
GB: -14
SEA:625
GB: -850
The Seabags are a mess. The Seabags are cowards. The Seabags are soft. The Seabags are injured. The Seabags have nothing to play for. The Packers are playing for their playoff lives. For sure the Packers blow away the Seahawks, right?
Upset of the week.
Pick:
Seattle 27
Green Bay 24
FINAL
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Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
Over/Under: 41
ATL: -9
BUF: +340
ATL: -440
The Falcons are too average to ever be giving a team this many points. Especially to a game Buffalo team. However S Jairus Byrd is out for the season for the young Bills. The Falcons ' beat up rushing attack is not going to be at 100%, but the Bills are slow in run defense and are now hampered in pass defense. The Falcons SHOULD win this one. But I don't like them covering.
Pick:
Buffalo 17
Atlanta 23
FINAL
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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Over/Under: 42.5
NYG: -7
CAR: +260
NYG: -320
The Panthers aren't the team that came here and matched us tit for tat last year and ran the ball pretty well. They aren't playing DeAngelo Williams much, and DEAR GOD their QB situation is laughable. Matt Moore isn't as mistake-prone as Jake Delhomme, but the Giants are playing New York FOOTBALL Giants football again defensive, and they may chase Moore (another lackluster offensive line) in favor of Delhomme much in the same way they chased Jason Campbell temporarily for Todd Collins vs. Washington. The Giants feature the 3rd best offense in the NFC and only the Saints (35 PPG) and Eagles (29 PPG) score more than the Giants (28 PPG). The Panthers ran into a team in a downward spiral (Minnesota) but the Giants are desperate and motivated -- and not fighting with their coach.
Pick:
Carolina 20
NY Giants 35
FINAL
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St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Over/Under: 43.5
ARZ: -14
STL: +625
ARZ: -850
The Cards are at home and have tons to play for. PERIOD.
Pick:
St. Louis 13
Arizona 31
FINAL
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Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
Over/Under: 41
SF: -12
DET: +500
SF: -700
The 49ers get me tight. They beat Arizona, which kind of messed with things playoff-wise for me. Then they fail to show up against the Eagles. It sickens me. They almost don't deserve those 12 points they're giving up, but it seems like a good play against the Lions who are going west. Not sure about that OVER. I think the UNDER (barely) lives. SF's money line is a good play.
Pick:
Detroit 17
San Francisco 21
FINAL
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Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 41/5
PHI: -7
DEN: +250
PHI: -300
The B-men are a collective enigma. I knew they'd lose to Oakland. And I said two weeks ago they'd win this game. I'm not budging from that. Somehow, they'll find a way, with the Eagles playing white hot football right now. FS Brian Dawkins will be extra motivated in his return to Philadelphia and will be sailing through the air attempting to take WR DeSean Jackson's head off (which I will pay him handsomely for if he does it ha).
For you squeamish women out there, I don't mean this LITERALLY DEAR GOD I can hear you already.
Pick:
Denver 31
Philadelphia 27
FINAL
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New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Over/Under: 40.5
IND: -5.5
NYJ: +200
IND: -240
The Colts won't be resting their starters at any point in this game. The Jets just need to keep the ball out of Sanchez's hands and run block for Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene and they'll have a chance. Having Sanchez make reads against a swarming defense like the Colts' and the Whirling Dervish himself spinning into Sanchez's face all day isn't wise if you're Brian Schottenheimer.
I just don't know if the Jets will be able to stop the Colts enough in order to keep it within shouting distance. The Jets ARE desperate for a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, however.
Pick:
NY Jets 20
Indianapolis 30
FINAL
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 42
WSH: +7
DAL: -290
WSH: +245
All season we have seen teams win or lose a game they probably weren't expected to and in unexpected fashion, then turn and do the opposite the following week. I'm not big on those "history" stats, but even sticking to relevant history (i.e. Romo's tenure as starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys, the Redskins have the Cowboys' number -- especially when they come to Landover). The Cowboys are pretty much Felix Jones and that's it, running the ball. Marion Barber looks slow. And the Skins, for all their warts and folly against the Giants, ONLY gave up two runs over 10 yards. Don't look for Felix Jones to change that. The Skins had chances to swing the game as there were 3 passes that could have been INTs for them. And Romo will definitely throw them 2-3 bones in this one. Don't think just because Dallas won at New Orleans that they are going to go in and demolish Washington as the Giants did. The Giants own Washington and have beaten the Cowboys themselves 4 out of the last 5 times they've played.
Besides, the Redskins had nearly SHUT OUT Dallas IN ARLINGTON the first time they played.
Funny side note, Suisham goes to Dallas, and will miss a FG after they fired their previous kicker, Nick Folk, who had been missing them like it was his job to do so. IRONY.
Pick:
Dallas 17
Washington 20
FINAL
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 41
CHI: +7
MIN: -300
CHI: +250
GO BEARS! Ha. But seriously, are the wheels coming off for the Vikes at the absolute worst time? Brett Favre was due to cause the team problems, but I figured it would be with INTs, not trying to pull rank over his coach. Oh well. The Bears must run the ball, or they have no chance. Lately, teams have been neutralizing Jared Allen and Kevin Williams for Minnesota. I think it will be close.
Pick:
Minnesota 23
Chicago 24
FINAL
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As politically incorrect as I wanna be.
