NFL Playoff Predictions (Week 16 Version)

NFL Playoff Predictions (Week 16 Version)
M.D. Wright
12.22.09

***EDITOR'S NOTE: This is pure conjecture. If anything happens to turn out the way I claim in this note, fly me to Vegas so I can go work for the house ha.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


Big games coming up this weekend and next. Attention will be palpable. The Vikings' loss to Carolina in Week 15 opened the door for a whole new set of scenarios that previously looked impossible. A month ago, the Saints and Vikings were mortal locks for the #1 and #2 seeds in the NFC, leading to Bye Weeks in the first round of the playoffs. Now? Not so. By virtue of the aforementioned loss by Minnesota, and Philadelphia being White Hot right now, there lends more importance to every game being played over the next 11 days. ARE YOU READY?

As it stands today (again, mere conjecture), these are the real playoff contenders:

1. New Orleans Saints. (13-1).
2. Minnesota Vikings (11-3).
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4).
4. Arizona Cardinals (9-5).
5. Green Bay Packers (9-5).
6. Dallas Cowboys (9-5).
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7. New York Giants (8-6).

The Eagles can possibly grab the #2 seed in the NFC.

The Cards can go as high as 2 (unlikely, as both MIN and PHI must lose both of their remaining games and ARZ must win both of its remaining 2 games in order for this to happen).

The Giants own the very important tiebreaker against Dallas, as well as the tiebreaker over Green Bay (should it come into play) due to better conference record and the common opponents tiebreaker.

The Cowboys can win the NFC East by winning their last two games and Philadelphia splits (with their loss obviously coming head to head with Dallas, who would own the tiebreaker against PHI, as a result).

Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with a win in Week 16 vs. Denver and a win Week 17 vs. Dallas.

The Giants cannot win the NFC East, however, they can either jostle for the #5 or #6 seed. The Packers have yet to clinch a playoff berth, and can potentially miss the playoffs altogether if they lose both of their final two games.

Because of the Vikings' loss, the Cards now have "something to play for" in both of their final two games, meaning Green Bay could very well need help from the Giants in order to make the playoffs in Week 17 (facing ARZ).

The Giants simply need to win vs. Carolina at home Week 16 and win vs. Minnesota Week 17 and they are in -- WITH a Dallas loss to either Washington or Philadelphia.

SUBPLOTS:

Washington OWNS Dallas in December in Landover.
Philadelphia ended Dallas' season last year and have the opportunity to do so again this year.
The Cardinals will not know who their opponent will be until their game ends Week 17. It could be any team between Green Bay, Dallas or NY Giants.

If Philadelphia wins the NFC East and gets the 3 seed, the Giants could return to Lincoln Financial Field. If they Iggles clinch the 2, the Giants could go back to Minnesota or Arizona and then would face New Orleans in a rematch.

IN OTHER WORDS, STAY TUNED. Every game matters these last two weeks. This is probably the most exciting final stretch in years.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


The AFC is a little more cut and dry (at the top, anyway) than the NFC.

1. Indianapolis Colts. (14-0)*.
* - Denotes clinched homefield advantage throughout playoffs, including Super Bowl (as home team, for what it's worth).
2. San Diego Chargers (11-3).
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5).
4. New England Patriots (9-5).
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-6).
6. Denver Broncos (8-6).
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7. Miami Dolphins (7-7).
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7).
9. Tennessee Titans (7-7).
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7).
11. Houston Texans (7-7).
12. NY Jets (7-7).

First off, the Colts have a major advantage avoiding having to play "in weather" by virtue of their #1 seed. However, they aren't the hottest team in the NFL right now. The Chargers are. And outside of playing in Foxborough, there isn't a place in the NFL where I think the Chargers have a chance of faltering right now. They are my favorites to win it all from THIS MOMENT.

The Colts and Chargers are both locked in as they own tiebreakers against all comers.

The Bengals had an opportunity to make a push for the #2 seed with a head to head game vs. SD, which would have yielded the tiebreaker with them and had them both with identical 10-4 records. As it stands, they must win out to avoid falling to the #4 seed, because New England likely will not lose another game.

The Ravens control their proverbial destiny. Win out and they're in. In that course, they have a tough game against the desperate Pittsburgh Steelers coming up Week 16.

Likewise with Denver. The Ravens control the head-to-head tiebreaker, but if they win out, they're in.

Denver has a tough game vs. Philadelphia Week 16, a loss muddles the picture, as there could be 6 teams with 8-7 records, with tiebreaker implications abounding.

Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, NY Jets, Houston and Pittsburgh all sit at 7-7.

Houston may have cost themselves an opportunity to control their destiny by losing several games late and a couple of games they "should have won". They need tons of help.

The Steelers have to play a steely (no pun) Ravens team and Miami in order to even have a chance to make the playoffs. A loss eliminates them. Even with a win vs. BAL, they would be in trouble because of the tiebreakers with TEN and HOU (who, if they win out, would have a voice in PIT's playoff stakes, amazingly).

Jacksonville lost two straight and put themselves in a tenuous situation.

Miami's loss Sunday may have crushed them. Although not confidence-wise, as they have bounced back several times this year from crushing defeats.

NY Jets are probably in the most trouble, and it has mostly been due to self-inflicted wounds -- including leaving at least 24 points on the field while America sat and observed a good half dozen times for them to progress beyond their 7-3 lead over the lowly Falcons. Allowing the Falcons to hang around and snatch the victory away at the last minute puts the Jets in a situation where they need the Dolphins and Jaguars to lose out and hope that Houston is the other team sitting at 9-7 at the end -- the only tiebreaker they own against the remaining teams.
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AS I SEE IT:

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


1. New Orleans.
2. Philadelphia.
3. Arizona.
4. Minnesota.
5. Green Bay.
6. NY Giants.

1/2 -- Bye Weeks, Wild Card Playoff Weekend

6 plays at 3
5 plays at 4

NY Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals.
GIANTS RIDING MOMENTUM AND ADMITTEDLY HAVING A BETTER TEAM.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings.
WOW. The talking heads will have a field day if this happens. And if Favre does what FAVRE DOES (since 1997) DEAR GOD WATCH OUT. We may hear Favre stories from February until September. AGAIN.

I'm still picking Minnesota though.

NY Giants vs. New Orleans Saints.
TOO TOUGH TO CALL. Rematch, and the Giants won't be a step slow all game this time. Everyone saw what Dallas did to flummox Brees with an average defense, so it doesn't take the Jets' D to beat the Saints.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles.
Peterson would have to earn his keep in this game, but I think Favre is going to be the deciding factor. He and/or Childress and his play-calling/decision-making. They have the defense to contend with Philadelphia. I'm not making a call here.

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AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


1. Indianapolis Colts.
2. San Diego Chargers.
3. Cincinnati Bengals.
4. New England Patriots.
5. Baltimore Ravens.
6. Tennessee Titans.

NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THE BOLTS. That's not supposed to be a C for COLTS. It is a B for BOLTS.

1/2 have Bye Weeks during the Wild Card Playoff.

" "

Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
WOW. Vince knows how to win games and they have the best RB in the NFL this year in Chris Johnson.
The Bengals don't really do anything in spectacular fashion. Benson has been slowed, Carson Palmer has been disgustingly average all season (even below average in many games) although he has been clutch, which is all that matters at the end.

I'd take Tennessee. This Chris Henry thing could galvanize the Bengals, but I think more than anything else, they don't have the front 7 to keep Johnson in front of them AND contend with Young.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots.
This is one game I can see going in the road team's favor. The Ravens were lined up to beat the Pats earlier before bobbling away (literally -- Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason) the game late when they played earlier in 2009. The Ravens do not fear nor respect New England and along with smacking Welker (which they did earlier as he came out of the slot), they will keep Moss under control and Ray Rice will have a field day against their slow defense. Flacco avoids mistakes for the most part.

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts.
Now.... the Colts certainly have Tennessee's number. Even with Young in the starting lineup, the Colts beat the Titans going away earlier this season. Unlike many teams, the Colts have the defensive staff. WATCH OUT. But I think the Colts prevail and make it back to the AFC Championship.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers.
Rematch, but no revenge. The Chargers simply do everything great and the Ravens don't feature the dominant defense they once had. Philip Rivers is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and he proves it every week without begging the officials for flags nor failing to show up against an average defense at home with momentum.

Yeah, I said it. If you can read, you know who those statements were aimed at.

San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts.

I won't make any calls until the playoffs materialize, but in both conferences, this is pretty much how I see it developing. We will report back at the end of Week 16, Week 17, Wild Card Weekend and after the Divisional Playoffs and Conference Championship Games with more predictions and analysis.

NFL Week 16 Powre Rankings

NFL Week 16 Powre Rankings
M.D. Wright
12.22.09

1. San Diego Chargers.
At this point, I'm beginning to buy them as the best team in the NFL because the Colts' inability and lack of desire to run the ball (STRETCH PLAY, PLEASE???) is going to catch up to them when teams are able to get near Manning's feet. I think that's going to give the Chargers a slight edge should they face one another in the AFC Championship Game.

2. Indianapolis Colts.
What I just said.

3. New England Patriots.
Hard to detract from what they're doing at this point. No one in the NFC appears to be dominant.

4. Philadelphia Eagles.
For all that they have done (big plays all year, winning the NFC East -- as they're going to do -- and looking impressive the past month and a half) everyone knows that the playoffs are a different ball game and the other shoe will come down.

Side note: for all the so-called "EXPERTS" out there on ESPN (STEVE YOUNG, TONIGHT) who fail to mention a very important fact in the NFC playoff hunt, let me put you on: the Iggles have a chance to secure the 2 seed by virtue of the somewhat shocking Vikings loss last night. The Vikes aren't a shoe-in to win either of their last two games and they have not by any means secured that 2 spot yet. With the Cards having the head-to-head tiebreaker and the Iggles having it (if PHI wins out), they will be playing their starters. The Iggles will be also, meaning Dallas may be in for yet another epic collapse at the hands of the Iggles, more questions and thus thereby knocking down the final obstacle for the Giants to clinch a playoff berth. Don't act surprised two weeks from now when this materializes.

5. New Orleans Saints.
EXPOSED. And worse yet, it was against a team with a shaky confidence level that thoroughly smacked them around and proved that the Saints' running game is a mirage and their defense had been playing over its head/not as good as statistics would indicate.

6. Green Bay Packers.
Likewise with THEIR defense, which really hadn't done anything impressive except in the Dallas game.

7. Dallas Cowboys.
Credit to them for winning Saturday night, they get the December talk off their back -- at least until they lose to Washington Sunday.

8. Arizona Cardinals.
You just never know which team is going to show up every week. The way it looks, Bill Parcells is right ONCE AGAIN -- "YA ARE WHAT YA RECORD SAYS YA ARE" and the Cards record shows they post two good ones for every STINKER they mail in. They're 9-5 right now. By that ratio, they are due for a blowout next week (2:1 -- 10-5, get it?) and a STINKER vs. Green Bay. Hmmmm... with the 3 seed at stake for them, their last two games are actually not games where they will be resting starters.

9. Minnesota Vikings.
I've been pointing it out almost from the time Favre signed there. And I'm saying it AGAIN, you saw the crack in the dam last night -- it's going to be Childress' play-calling and decision-making and/or Favre's erratic playoff performance (a staple since 2000 -- look at the stats, records and outcomes -- Favre has STUNK in the playoffs since 1997, but especially since 2000; and that's WHEN they've made it to the playoffs). Keep an eye out, because they could be facing a desperate Giants team Week 17 and once again in the Wild Card Playoff the following week. The Giants have their mojo and moxie back and the Vikes are clearly missing EJ Henderson. They need to get their running game back on track and figure out what teams are doing to take Kevin Williams and Jared Allen out of games or they are going to be one and done.

10. New York Giants.
Even if it was for an extended period of time, anyone with eyes knows the Giants have the personnel on defense to return to their perennial perch amongst the best defenses in the NFL. They did not play like it for two months, but much like '07, there was a lull before the new coordinator (Spagnuolo) and his system took off. Sheridan finally got it right -- and if they continue to play to the personnel's strengths, the first 5 games and the Washington game will once again loom as the trend and not the aberration that they appear to be to the haters (and the 2-6 streak will be marked as an aberration). Too many playmakers on both sides of the ball to keep this team down -- a team that scores almost 27 PPG legitimately every season and had perennially ranked amongst the best defenses in the NFL the past few seasons before the aforementioned lull.

11. Cincinnati Bengals.
I dunno how much they'll have left in the tank after Chris Henry's passing. But more of a cause for alarm is how mediocre to downright bad Carson Palmer's numbers have been in most of the games this year. Coming off a 90 yard game in Week 14, he played well enough in Week 15 vs. San Diego, but the Bengals aren't dynamic enough in the running game -- rather solid -- if not unspectacular; to be able to get by with Palmer averaging less than 200 yards per game passing.

12. Tennessee Titans.
Record aside, VINCE YOUNG KNOWS HOW TO WIN. Had he been inserted sooner, the Titans might very well have one of those Wild Card spots sewn up with a 10-4 record. As it is, Jeff Fisher -- who is proving that he is losing his touch a bit (clock management in Week 15?) gave Young his job back a couple of weeks too late. The Titans CAN still make the playoffs, but they need help from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in order to have a shot. That said:

NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THEM IF THEY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. NO ONE.

13. Baltimore Ravens.
Their destiny is in their hands. A win versus Pittsburgh almost certainly gives them control over one of the Wild Card spots. But it is a huge task to fulfill to go into Pittsburgh and beat a very desperate Steelers team. The caveat being the Steelers don't rely upon the run anymore for the Ravens to flex their true muscle (stuffing the run). The Ravens CAN be had in the air and Roethlisberger has been as prolific as any in doing so this season.

14. Miami Dolphins.
WATCH OUT. That's all I'm saying. The AFC East can break VERY CRAZY if the Patriots don't take care of business in these last two games.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Gutsy play in Week 15, but they're at long odds to even make the playoffs. And I think the young Ravens end their season appropriately in Week 16.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Valiant effort vs. Indianapolis, but -- eh.

17. Houston Texans.
As is their trademark year in and year out -- too little, too late. They don't have any tiebreaker advantages. All they can do is hope everyone ahead of them loses (and some of those teams play one another) so, yeah...

18. Denver Broncos.
I know this team. I knew they'd beat Dallas. I knew they'd lose to Baltimore. I knew they'd lost to Oakland. And I know they're going to beat Philadelphia this weekend. Brian Dawkins might try to take DeSean Jackson's head off this week. I wouldn't mind this.

19. Oakland Raiders.
How about the MOXIE of this team??? Old Man Cable is showing that with time, he can make a bunch of misfits, complete busts and undeveloped talent look pretty doggone good. They have some very impressive wins this year, which all look less and less fluky with each passing week.

20. Atlanta Falcons.
Not knocking them, but the Jets left 24 points on the field and left the door WIDE OPEN all game. They're still horridly average.

21. New York Jets.
Sanchez can't totally be blamed (although he's on the hook for a good 67% of it in this most recent loss) but he's cost them 5 full games and was most of the reason they lost Week 15.

22. Carolina Panthers.
They're riding high right now...

Until they come to East Rutherford and get smacked Sunday.

23. San Francisco 49ers.
Fading fast and complete lack of effort in a game they should have won Week 15.

24. Buffalo Bills.
...........

25. Washington Redskins.
They had been playing better for the past 5 games until they failed to show up Week 15.

26. Seattle Seahawks.
The Seabags are just a pile of garbage. No other way of putting it.

27. Chicago Bears.
Lovie, pack your bags.

28. Cleveland Browns.
WHO KNEW???

29. Kansas City Chiefs.
What a horrific defensive performance against one of the historically worst offenses ever.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They try.

31. St. Louis Rams.
Inspired ball of late, but I bet Spags wishes he had stayed on as our DC this year. He'd be 13-1 instead of 1-13.

32. Detroit Lions.
DEAR GOD. After an inspiring start in the first two weeks, they've reverted back to their ways from last season. 1-31 in their last 32 games (and I shant reel off their overall record in the decade. YIKES). The Rams are right there with them in these past two seasons, though. 2-30. UFFFFFF.