M.D. Wright
12.22.09
***EDITOR'S NOTE: This is pure conjecture. If anything happens to turn out the way I claim in this note, fly me to Vegas so I can go work for the house ha.
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
Big games coming up this weekend and next. Attention will be palpable. The Vikings' loss to Carolina in Week 15 opened the door for a whole new set of scenarios that previously looked impossible. A month ago, the Saints and Vikings were mortal locks for the #1 and #2 seeds in the NFC, leading to Bye Weeks in the first round of the playoffs. Now? Not so. By virtue of the aforementioned loss by Minnesota, and Philadelphia being White Hot right now, there lends more importance to every game being played over the next 11 days. ARE YOU READY?
As it stands today (again, mere conjecture), these are the real playoff contenders:
1. New Orleans Saints. (13-1).
2. Minnesota Vikings (11-3).
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4).
4. Arizona Cardinals (9-5).
5. Green Bay Packers (9-5).
6. Dallas Cowboys (9-5).
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7. New York Giants (8-6).
The Eagles can possibly grab the #2 seed in the NFC.
The Cards can go as high as 2 (unlikely, as both MIN and PHI must lose both of their remaining games and ARZ must win both of its remaining 2 games in order for this to happen).
The Giants own the very important tiebreaker against Dallas, as well as the tiebreaker over Green Bay (should it come into play) due to better conference record and the common opponents tiebreaker.
The Cowboys can win the NFC East by winning their last two games and Philadelphia splits (with their loss obviously coming head to head with Dallas, who would own the tiebreaker against PHI, as a result).
Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with a win in Week 16 vs. Denver and a win Week 17 vs. Dallas.
The Giants cannot win the NFC East, however, they can either jostle for the #5 or #6 seed. The Packers have yet to clinch a playoff berth, and can potentially miss the playoffs altogether if they lose both of their final two games.
Because of the Vikings' loss, the Cards now have "something to play for" in both of their final two games, meaning Green Bay could very well need help from the Giants in order to make the playoffs in Week 17 (facing ARZ).
The Giants simply need to win vs. Carolina at home Week 16 and win vs. Minnesota Week 17 and they are in -- WITH a Dallas loss to either Washington or Philadelphia.
SUBPLOTS:
Washington OWNS Dallas in December in Landover.
Philadelphia ended Dallas' season last year and have the opportunity to do so again this year.
The Cardinals will not know who their opponent will be until their game ends Week 17. It could be any team between Green Bay, Dallas or NY Giants.
If Philadelphia wins the NFC East and gets the 3 seed, the Giants could return to Lincoln Financial Field. If they Iggles clinch the 2, the Giants could go back to Minnesota or Arizona and then would face New Orleans in a rematch.
IN OTHER WORDS, STAY TUNED. Every game matters these last two weeks. This is probably the most exciting final stretch in years.
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
The AFC is a little more cut and dry (at the top, anyway) than the NFC.
1. Indianapolis Colts. (14-0)*.
* - Denotes clinched homefield advantage throughout playoffs, including Super Bowl (as home team, for what it's worth).
2. San Diego Chargers (11-3).
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-5).
4. New England Patriots (9-5).
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-6).
6. Denver Broncos (8-6).
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7. Miami Dolphins (7-7).
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7).
9. Tennessee Titans (7-7).
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-7).
11. Houston Texans (7-7).
12. NY Jets (7-7).
First off, the Colts have a major advantage avoiding having to play "in weather" by virtue of their #1 seed. However, they aren't the hottest team in the NFL right now. The Chargers are. And outside of playing in Foxborough, there isn't a place in the NFL where I think the Chargers have a chance of faltering right now. They are my favorites to win it all from THIS MOMENT.
The Colts and Chargers are both locked in as they own tiebreakers against all comers.
The Bengals had an opportunity to make a push for the #2 seed with a head to head game vs. SD, which would have yielded the tiebreaker with them and had them both with identical 10-4 records. As it stands, they must win out to avoid falling to the #4 seed, because New England likely will not lose another game.
The Ravens control their proverbial destiny. Win out and they're in. In that course, they have a tough game against the desperate Pittsburgh Steelers coming up Week 16.
Likewise with Denver. The Ravens control the head-to-head tiebreaker, but if they win out, they're in.
Denver has a tough game vs. Philadelphia Week 16, a loss muddles the picture, as there could be 6 teams with 8-7 records, with tiebreaker implications abounding.
Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, NY Jets, Houston and Pittsburgh all sit at 7-7.
Houston may have cost themselves an opportunity to control their destiny by losing several games late and a couple of games they "should have won". They need tons of help.
The Steelers have to play a steely (no pun) Ravens team and Miami in order to even have a chance to make the playoffs. A loss eliminates them. Even with a win vs. BAL, they would be in trouble because of the tiebreakers with TEN and HOU (who, if they win out, would have a voice in PIT's playoff stakes, amazingly).
Jacksonville lost two straight and put themselves in a tenuous situation.
Miami's loss Sunday may have crushed them. Although not confidence-wise, as they have bounced back several times this year from crushing defeats.
NY Jets are probably in the most trouble, and it has mostly been due to self-inflicted wounds -- including leaving at least 24 points on the field while America sat and observed a good half dozen times for them to progress beyond their 7-3 lead over the lowly Falcons. Allowing the Falcons to hang around and snatch the victory away at the last minute puts the Jets in a situation where they need the Dolphins and Jaguars to lose out and hope that Houston is the other team sitting at 9-7 at the end -- the only tiebreaker they own against the remaining teams.
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AS I SEE IT:
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
1. New Orleans.
2. Philadelphia.
3. Arizona.
4. Minnesota.
5. Green Bay.
6. NY Giants.
1/2 -- Bye Weeks, Wild Card Playoff Weekend
6 plays at 3
5 plays at 4
NY Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals.
GIANTS RIDING MOMENTUM AND ADMITTEDLY HAVING A BETTER TEAM.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings.
WOW. The talking heads will have a field day if this happens. And if Favre does what FAVRE DOES (since 1997) DEAR GOD WATCH OUT. We may hear Favre stories from February until September. AGAIN.
I'm still picking Minnesota though.
NY Giants vs. New Orleans Saints.
TOO TOUGH TO CALL. Rematch, and the Giants won't be a step slow all game this time. Everyone saw what Dallas did to flummox Brees with an average defense, so it doesn't take the Jets' D to beat the Saints.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles.
Peterson would have to earn his keep in this game, but I think Favre is going to be the deciding factor. He and/or Childress and his play-calling/decision-making. They have the defense to contend with Philadelphia. I'm not making a call here.
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AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
1. Indianapolis Colts.
2. San Diego Chargers.
3. Cincinnati Bengals.
4. New England Patriots.
5. Baltimore Ravens.
6. Tennessee Titans.
NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THE BOLTS. That's not supposed to be a C for COLTS. It is a B for BOLTS.
1/2 have Bye Weeks during the Wild Card Playoff.
" "
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals.
WOW. Vince knows how to win games and they have the best RB in the NFL this year in Chris Johnson.
The Bengals don't really do anything in spectacular fashion. Benson has been slowed, Carson Palmer has been disgustingly average all season (even below average in many games) although he has been clutch, which is all that matters at the end.
I'd take Tennessee. This Chris Henry thing could galvanize the Bengals, but I think more than anything else, they don't have the front 7 to keep Johnson in front of them AND contend with Young.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots.
This is one game I can see going in the road team's favor. The Ravens were lined up to beat the Pats earlier before bobbling away (literally -- Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason) the game late when they played earlier in 2009. The Ravens do not fear nor respect New England and along with smacking Welker (which they did earlier as he came out of the slot), they will keep Moss under control and Ray Rice will have a field day against their slow defense. Flacco avoids mistakes for the most part.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts.
Now.... the Colts certainly have Tennessee's number. Even with Young in the starting lineup, the Colts beat the Titans going away earlier this season. Unlike many teams, the Colts have the defensive staff. WATCH OUT. But I think the Colts prevail and make it back to the AFC Championship.
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers.
Rematch, but no revenge. The Chargers simply do everything great and the Ravens don't feature the dominant defense they once had. Philip Rivers is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and he proves it every week without begging the officials for flags nor failing to show up against an average defense at home with momentum.
Yeah, I said it. If you can read, you know who those statements were aimed at.
San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts.
I won't make any calls until the playoffs materialize, but in both conferences, this is pretty much how I see it developing. We will report back at the end of Week 16, Week 17, Wild Card Weekend and after the Divisional Playoffs and Conference Championship Games with more predictions and analysis.
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