NFL Week 3 Picks
M.D. Wright
9.24.09
Man the NFL season flies by. It's ALREADY WEEK 3. It seems like the season just began. But in a way, it helps fall and winter (even if fall is superb in NYC) go by quickly without it having a chance to depress those of us who have six months of chill ha.
WEEK 1: 11-5
WEEK 2: 11-5
Let's get to the picks.
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets
Giants Stadium at the New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Over/Under: 37
NYJ: -2.5
TEN: +120
NYJ: -140
The Titans are doing about what I expected. And they are heading for an 8-8 season behind shaky Collins and a defence that isn't exactly flexible (no blitzes, no shifting when obvious opponent advantages were being exploited), along with CB Courtland Finnegan seeming to lose his temper every week. What's he so angry about?
Sanchez should have a field day and Revis may take one to the house for the Jets. Oh, by the way, the Jets are going to ABSOLUTELY BURY Kerry Collins. If there is a lock to pick with regards to the lines, DEFINITELY take the Jets to cover. The UNDER looks good, but that would mean the Jets would have to score 30. Not sure they will.
Pick:
Tennessee 10
NY Jets 24
FINAL
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Over/Under: 47
HOU: -3.5
JAX: +160
HOU: -190
The Jaguwires are a mess. How Del Rio still has a job is beyond me. Old, aging WRs, a QB who has looked rattled since he became a full-time starter and a defence that doesn't exactly make plays outside of Rasean Mathis, and well, you have this slag heap.
The Texans should put up pinball numbers just as the Cardinals did last week on this team
Pick:
Jacksonville 13
Houston 37
FINAL
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Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Over/Under: 38.5
BAL: -13
CLE: +550
BAL: -750
You own a set of stones? I DARE you to take that debacle of a team in Cleveland to cover the 13 points they're getting and the +550 ha.
Nevertheless, Jamal Lewis is banged up, Brady Quinn has not been spectacular -- outside of Joe Thomas, their offensive line is a joke. The defence isn't terrible, but it isn't even consistently average.
The Ravens can score now, which influences the -13. However, they gave up 24 to an equally inept Chiefs squad, so yeah, I DARE YOU, like Black Rob.
Pick:
Cleveland 16
Baltimore 23
FINAL
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New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Over/Under: 44.5
TB: +6.5
NYG: -290
TB: +240
I don't need to comment on this. Unless the Giants really show signs of missing so many players (Phillips for the year -- announced today, Tuck, Ross, Dockery, Nicks, etc.), this should be along the lines of the 2007 Wild Card Playoff game in terms of score and game trend.
Pick:
NY Giants 24
Tampa Bay 6
FINAL
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Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
Over/Under: 38.5
DET: +6
WASH: -270
DET: +230
Upset alert. If you wanna call it that. The Redskins should've lost to the Rams for the second straight (poor) time. The Lions haven't been THAT BAD thus far, and they have a few pieces in place to offset the many glaring holes. They can't stop a decent offence, but for the Lions' sake they're not facing one this week, either. Who knows.
At least expect the Lions to cover those 6 points they're getting.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 41.5
PHI: -8.5
No Money Lines As Of 9.25.09
The Chiefs try so hard. But they're traveling east and the Philly crowd (minus the PETA bunch and self-righteous set) will be in full throat whenever Vick hits the field. The Iggles won't miss McNabb much in this game, but they aren't going to cover those 8 1/2 points they're giving KC.
Pick:
Kansas City 23
Philadelphia 28
FINAL
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Pick:
Washington 13
Detroit 17
FINAL
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Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
Over/Under: 41
STL: +6.5
GB: -290
STL: +240
The only possible story line here is the Packers' inability to really stop anyone consistently on defence. Otherwise, this game doesn't merit a write up. Just take the Packers straight up.
Pick:
Green Bay 31
St. Louis 13
FINAL
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Over/Under: 39
MIN: -6.5
SF: +240
MIN: -290
I dunno why Minnesota is favored by so much, honestly. Yes, this is SF's truest test yet -- facing the Vikes' defence, but I would not touch that -6.5 for Minny. If I were a betting man, of course ha.
I don't know if I like Peterson's back ailment or not, but we will see how much of a role that will play. SF will cover.
Pick:
San Francisco 20
Minnesota 24
FINAL
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 47
NE: -4.5
ATL: +180
NE: -220
I actually like this game. A lot. For some reason. The Fulcons are traveling to "Matty Ice's" old college stomping grounds, and they are playing solid football.
The Patriots are not. They can't run the ball and John Abraham is going to be in THOMAS' face all game. I love it.
I like Atlanta covering and probably winning.
Pick:
Atlanta 28
New England 23
FINAL
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Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Over/Under: 37
SEA: +2
CHI: -135
SEA: +115
YUCK. Who wants to even see this game? And then from a wagering standpoint, why would you care? This game has no value. Hasselbeck has busted ribs. The Bears stink and are putrid to watch. Somehow they beat PIT, though. I would still lean toward Chicago at the end of the day. That tells you how much this game stinks.
Pick:
Chicago 20
Seattle 15
FINAL
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New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
Over/Under: 52
BUF: +6
NO: -270
BUF: +230
I LOVE THIS. The Saints might get that 52 by THEMSELVES ha. My word for them this season: OVERRRRRRRRRRRRRR.
I don't even care about the spread (the Bills don't really miss Lynch because Jackson fills in admirably, Owens is insignificant in the so-called Buffalo no-huddle).
Pick:
New Orleans 41
Buffalo 24
FINAL
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Miami Dolphins vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
Over/Under: 44
SD: -6
MIA: +230
SD: -270
The Dolphins will fight. And the Chargers will sleepwalk 5/6 of the game. Will Tomlinson play Sunday? Will it matter either way? Rivers puts up pinball numbers and he will again against this defence for Miami.
Pick:
Miami 20
San Diego 31
FINAL
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio
Over/Under: 37
CIN: +4
PIT: -200
CIN: +165
You know what? After last week, who knows ha? I can't pick Cincinnati despite the fact they have covered both games thus far. And they MAY again, but I don't have any confidence.
Of course Polamalu is still out for PIT and Slow Willie Parker (he's my dude, but he has lost a step) needs to get his game going. Roethlisberger is due to implode with his tendency of holding the ball too long and trying to make the TD pass each time.
Cursin' Palmer is finally healthy and Chad is making plays (even if his concentration is just as much on stunts with fans as it is with making plays and winning).
There has been a Cedric Benson sighting, also. WOW.
Pick:
Pittsburgh 20
Cincinnati 17
FINAL
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Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum/McAfee Coliseum
Oakland, California
Over/Under: 37
OAK: +1.5
Pick 'em
What an ugly game. I do see a 3 way tie for "first place" after this game if you get my drift. JaMarcus Russell and Darrius Heyward-Bey seem to sleep well at night knowing they fleeced Al Davis ROYALLY. Russell has the accuracy of a drunk, fat guy trying to take a leak after 10 beers and 5 shots of Patron. But they can run the ball pretty well.
Orton? Agh. He hasn't been bad, but he has potential all-world Brandon Marshall and a poor man's poor man's Steve Smith in Eddie Royal (meaning a poor man's Giants' Steve Smith, who is still viewed [less accurate now, and won't be accurate after this season] as a poor man's Panthers' Steve(n) Smith) to throw to.
Seymour will get Orton. Dumervil will get Russell. But Denver can't run the ball with KNOWSHON banged up.
Pick:
Denver 17
Oakland (somehow) 23
FINAL
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 48.5
ARI: -2.5
IND: +125
ARI: -145
Vegas respects the Curds. The Road Warrior Colts are getting 2 1/2 in Glendale on Sunday Night Football. This should be a fun one. TAKE THE OVER. You know what Kurt can do. You know what LARRY can do. You know what Q can do. You know what PEYTON can do. Just watch, enjoy and again, TAKE THE OVER.
Pick:
Indianapolis 30
Arizona 34
FINAL
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Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, Texas
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 47
DAL: -8.5
CAR: +320
DAL: -400
Vegas is playing on peoples' emotions to be jacked for Monday Night. And by "peoples" I mean those overzealous, illogical and (despite a 14 year playoff-win drought) bandwagon fans who will wager on their team. Carolina SHOULD be getting points, but not 8 1/2 dear GOD.
The Cowboys will win, and with the help of Jake, and the hype for the stadium (being compared to the Wonders of the World) and Romo will start again.
Pick:
Carolina 23
Dallas 28
FINAL
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