Thoughts On Cleveland Cavaliers' Owner Dan Gilbert's Reaction To LeBron's "Decision"
M.D. Wright
7.11.10
I'll keep this brief, because there's been TOO MUCH ado made about the entire situation. As a matter of fact, this won't even be in column form, but more or less in response form.
First of all, Spike Lee was 100% correct and speaks for most sane fans of the game, no matter what team they root for. I posted a link to his call into SportsCenter on Friday and he spoke for nearly 10 minutes about it in reaction. 100% perfect. He speaks for me as a Knick fan also -- even down to not hating nor booing him when I see him at MSG in December.
But to Dan Gilbert? I can't really knock him TOTALLY. I do think he's playing himself by going public with this rant of his. He has every right to feel that way, even if he isn't completely justified (I taunted the Cavs and their fans for years for thinking that roster of washed-up, overpaid, D-league all-star role players was FORTUNATE to have the records they had the past two years and even getting as far as they did on LeBron's back since 2006), because Gilbert certainly has a lot of the blame here. If not most of it.
The Cavs made the Finals in 2007, swept, but made it. Fell back to the pack in 2008, then got bounced... errr... EMBARRASSED last year vs. Orlando and embarrassed further in May 2010 by an aging Boston team. For all the hype, you would've thought the Cavs were in line for a three-peat heading into June 2010, not also-rans (which is really what they have been for the past 7 years). Again, I don't blame LeBron for leaving. What did then-GM Danny Ferry and Gilbert do? Continue to balloon the cap by bringing in has-been players who were nothing but shells of their former selves. Shaquille O'Neal is chasing the next magic carpet ride to the Finals (irony is he is probably begging to go back to the Lakers or Heat, teams he's basically burned bridges with over the same issue -- coming into camp out of shape and then pointing/GIVING the finger to the team once he moved on to the next one like his last name was Carter). Antawn Jamison was always one-dimensional in Washington and now he's OLD and one-dimensional. Zydrunas Ilgauskas' best years were spent imitating Bill Walton's prime years (NBA historians will get that and die laughing immediately). Mo Williams is a JOKE and will be fully exposed even to the casual fan's eyes next season.
What did Gilbert expect?
Even Kobe Bryant, the best player in the league, needed a couple of GOOD players (the anti-Kobe sect out there, ever hypocritical and self-contradictory will attempt to diminish a Kobe accomplishment and augment his teammates' accomplishments in the same breath by saying "he couldn't win it alone" and then say his current teammates are basically Dream Team II, when Gasol was an afterthought in Memphis, Odom and Artest are in the last year or two in their primes and Odom has been dogging it since he left Miami -- and neither of the latter two are all-stars, as the haters suggest, all in an effort to say Kobe has a stacked deck -- Gasol is only the best PF/C in the West because the talent level at that position is injured or diluted and he's playing with Kobe now). The Lakers' bench was laughable for most of 2009-2010. There has to be something said for the intangibles even when your best player doesn't have his best game (another anti-Kobe slur was that "he's selfish and doesn't make his teammates better" -- another shot down argument -- because Gasol was considered "too soft" and Artest was said to be a potential train wreck for the team and these are guys Kobe lit a fire under and brought the best out of and put them in position to help the team win.
Lost in all the "he shot 6-24 FG in Game 7" nonsense is the fact that he had 10 CLUTCH points when it mattered and his so-called "soft" and "head case" teammates made clutch shots to seal the deal.
That's what Jordan did. Kobe does it also. LeBron didn't do it in Cleveland.
And he won't in Miami, either, because it's Wade's team.
But for Gilbert to go on this tirade and this "defame LeBron at all costs" campaign, it's just reaching scorned girlfriend proportions. He speaks of "covering" for LeBron when he was in Cleveland. Look, he sped down I-71 at 110 MPH many times and got off for it. Swept under the rug. I told people all the time, "Don't fall for this image that Nike and the NBA are pushing about this guy, he is NO angel and he's not perfect". You fell for it with Jordan, you fell for it with Kobe before 2004 and you fell for it with LeBron. The guy has had two children out of wedlock -- THAT WE KNOW OF -- by two different women. No mention of this. Kobe does this, the vile hatred would reach unheard of heights. LeBron goes out and racks up an $800 tab and leaves less than $10. No one hears about it. Gilbert covers for him. He does other shady shit that never gets heard of outside of northeast Ohio. Why are you covering for him anyway? That's not your job. Don't put that on blast because he left. That's just like a chick standing by, knowing she has grievances with her boyfriend, he cheats, he doesn't clean up, he has nasty habits that she hates but didn't speak about -- UNTIL HE LEFT HER FOR SOMEONE ELSE, then she has a tirade for the ages. Who wants to hear that shit ha? Same way I don't want to hear a woman bitching about how she got owned, I don't want to hear Gilbert sounding the same way.
SN: Anyone else notice how EVERYONE is using the "scorned girlfriend" angle with this LeBron-Leaves-Cleveland story ha?
By the way:
The shit LeBron got away with and never got exposed for while in Cleveland would've been thrown in his face EVERY DAY here in New York. And we would have STILL cheered him. That's why we're BETTER than Cleveland fans in every sport. They're showing their asses now, but we would have never stood by and gave that nigga a pass with the shit he was doing to begin with. If we saw him at the bar and not leaving tips, he would've heard it. If he got in my boy DK's cab and left a $3 tip (if any tip at all) on a $45 fare to Kennedy, we'd let him have it. If he sped up the FDR or down the BQE or weaved around the tankers that seemingly don't move for 15 minutes at a time on the Cross Bronx, we'd let him have it.
AND STILL CHEERED HIM.
And if he left in an understandable matter, yeah, we'd be pissed, but we wouldn't be acting like babies such as Gilbert and the Cleveland Fan has done.
Embarrassing, the whole lot of them.
As politically incorrect as I wanna be.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Saturday, July 10, 2010
2010 NBA Free Agency: LeBron Chooses Miami
2010 NBA Free Agency: LeBron Chooses Miami
M.D. Wright
7.10.10
You know what? GOOD FOR HIM. You play ball in the NBA to WIN more than any other reason. And "legacy" and perception be damned, LeBron James went to the situation he thought was the best opportunity for him to do so. If it were only that simple, I wouldn't have a single thing to say about it.
However...
Oh, and for the people who claim I hate LeBron -- I am not Skip Bayless, who I am CONVINCED hates him, but you got me misunderstood. No one is solely pointing the finger at James. Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert, former Cavs' GM Danny Ferry, etc. were to blame (although they have been limited in what they could do the past 3 years being pressed against the cap due to the bad decisions after they made the Finals), but I'm not letting LeBron off the hook ESPECIALLY with the way he handled this and what it says about him that he chose to go to Miami and not New York, when, if his crew of yes-men faggots had any wisdom and long-term foresight, they would've known that the Knicks offered the better long-term situation than Miami. Miami is championship or bust in the next 3 years (he's most likely going to have an out-clause after the 3rd year once they don't win anything and he's frustrated again). They're cap pressed already and will be for the duration of those guys' contracts.
See, given that they signed simultaneously and not staggered year after the next, the Heat's cap situation isn't going to get any better. They'll only have a mid-level exception and have to hit 100% on their drafts in 2011 and 2012 for it to work (and hope that these supposedly NBA-ready 2010 picks pan out immediately).
Yes, there were IFs involved in coming to New York, but there are FAR more in Miami. The prospect of winning now is alluring and I can't and won't knock him for that. At the end of the day who really cares why he chose and where he went? It's his decision and his future. But this whole thing was a PR nightmare, especially for the unbiased eye who will be objective enough to see through what was said and WASN'T said to see how full of shit everyone around LeBron and LeBron himself were about this. You have every right to leave Cleveland. But tell them that. Gilbert is an arrogant prick and I'm halfway glad this happened, because he was grand-standing like he just KNEW LeBron was staying no matter what. I loved seeing those press conferences last year and this year with him and his smug face making proclamations.
But LeBron shouldn't have done it this way. You run the league. Do it the way you want to. Not the way your hack ass "marketing team" and "managers" tell you to.
There was NO NEED to go to Greenwich and have it at the B&G. Why? Stans speculated it was because of Carmelo's wedding today -- July 10 -- here in New York. But LeBron has been in Miami ever since the announcement on Thursday night. Why use the charity angle to assuage the guilt and lessening the blow so people would say "well, he IS doing it for charity, after all, so lay off" (which is what they undoubtedly hoped people thought). CUT THEM A CHECK AND KEEP IT MOVING.
If it were me, I would've just said "too bad, I'm outta here" and not gave a fuck what people thought. The whole farce was constructed BECAUSE LeBron cares about how he's perceived and it BACKFIRED, because now he has a whole state hating him for leaving and HOW he left, and the entire tri-state here (save for a few die-hard fans of his) who either were ambivalent and now hate him or were like me, liked watching him play, cynical and saw through the bullshit and am calling bullshit again with this -- who are turning against him after being supportive for 7 years. Contrary to what people like you claim, I don't hate him. Not even. I don't WORSHIP him like the stans do, but I hate overhype for someone who hasn't achieved anything, stars aligned or not. And before I even hear Kobe being brought up, that discussion can FOREVER be put to rest, now. No one is allowed to compare LeBron with him anymore. It wasn't a viable argument before, anyway. LeBron is huge no homo. He's 6'8" 265 and faster than almost everyone in the league. Stature-wise, Kobe is built like 100 other guys in the NBA at 6'6" 210. Kobe's footwork is impeccable. Hell, Hakeem personally taught him some of the moves he uses and Jordan nods in approval at his pivot moves. LeBron does none of that. As a student of the game and a miniature version of the thinking-man's player (I love using pivot moves, step-backs, Reggie Miller catch-and-shoots, triple threat, etc.) I give more credence to someone who does that better than anyone over someone who bulls over players and gets the benefit of the whistle 90% of the time. Across the board in terms of a polished game, Kobe is better. Notice I said POLISHED. People are in awe of LeBron's athleticism, thundering dunks and mesmerizing antics on the court. Hell, I love 'em myself. But POLISHED is what Jordan was and POLISHED is what Kobe is. I watch LeBron to be entertained, I watch Kobe to see perfection on the court.
BUT ENOUGH OF THAT, this article has nothing to do with Bryant.
I woulda been fine with him going to CHI or even NJ (and would've understood the latter much more with his supposed ties to Jay). But to do this in my backyard, under a farcical façade and then not choose New York, well, you can't expect me to jump on my arch-rival team's bandwagon, can you?
It's never been personal with me and that dude. If I saw him on the street, I'd give him pounds and I'm sure he's cool (minus the yes men handlers of his). Just like Jay. I hate how Jay rigged the game and got tight that Harlem dudes was getting more shine on his label, so he undercut them and did spiteful shit in order to sabotage their success. But if I met Jay in person and even did business with him, all that would be put aside. Haters aren't able to do that. So let's get that straight once and for all.
I have to re-emphasize this several times in a column, why? Because even after reading it (if the people who comment first EVEN DO SO), people will still claim it. If you haven't played, coached, refereed the game, and don't know the history of the game down through the years and a purist, then why try to tell me what to think here?
At any rate, I'm not like some of the people who I've heard talk lately. Everywhere I've gone the past three days in the city, I hear people talking about it. This one guy was homicidal today when I was down by Wall Street. He was furious that LeBron didn't come. Cavs fans and Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert have shown their asses ever since Thursday night. I'm embarrassed to be part of the same human race with such people. It wasn't that serious. I didn't hold candlelight vigil outside of Madison Square Garden hoping he would come and then flip out when he didn't choose us. The Knicks have been at the bottom of the totem pole for New York fans for a decade. It was funny to see "taunts" on my Facebook and Twitter pages from fans of teams that have won exactly nothing -- I might add -- as if I was someplace whimpering in a corner or ready to jump off the ledge like Cleveland fans. I wasn't. Far from it (in fact, I was tight about the MTA and its antics -- which I will write about later tonight -- more than LeBron could have EVER made me) You wanna know why I am ambivalent (now that the initial disappointment is over?)
I HAVE THE YANKEES AND GIANTS TO SUPPORT.
God bless and Good Night.
M.D. Wright
7.10.10
You know what? GOOD FOR HIM. You play ball in the NBA to WIN more than any other reason. And "legacy" and perception be damned, LeBron James went to the situation he thought was the best opportunity for him to do so. If it were only that simple, I wouldn't have a single thing to say about it.
However...
Oh, and for the people who claim I hate LeBron -- I am not Skip Bayless, who I am CONVINCED hates him, but you got me misunderstood. No one is solely pointing the finger at James. Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert, former Cavs' GM Danny Ferry, etc. were to blame (although they have been limited in what they could do the past 3 years being pressed against the cap due to the bad decisions after they made the Finals), but I'm not letting LeBron off the hook ESPECIALLY with the way he handled this and what it says about him that he chose to go to Miami and not New York, when, if his crew of yes-men faggots had any wisdom and long-term foresight, they would've known that the Knicks offered the better long-term situation than Miami. Miami is championship or bust in the next 3 years (he's most likely going to have an out-clause after the 3rd year once they don't win anything and he's frustrated again). They're cap pressed already and will be for the duration of those guys' contracts.
See, given that they signed simultaneously and not staggered year after the next, the Heat's cap situation isn't going to get any better. They'll only have a mid-level exception and have to hit 100% on their drafts in 2011 and 2012 for it to work (and hope that these supposedly NBA-ready 2010 picks pan out immediately).
Yes, there were IFs involved in coming to New York, but there are FAR more in Miami. The prospect of winning now is alluring and I can't and won't knock him for that. At the end of the day who really cares why he chose and where he went? It's his decision and his future. But this whole thing was a PR nightmare, especially for the unbiased eye who will be objective enough to see through what was said and WASN'T said to see how full of shit everyone around LeBron and LeBron himself were about this. You have every right to leave Cleveland. But tell them that. Gilbert is an arrogant prick and I'm halfway glad this happened, because he was grand-standing like he just KNEW LeBron was staying no matter what. I loved seeing those press conferences last year and this year with him and his smug face making proclamations.
But LeBron shouldn't have done it this way. You run the league. Do it the way you want to. Not the way your hack ass "marketing team" and "managers" tell you to.
There was NO NEED to go to Greenwich and have it at the B&G. Why? Stans speculated it was because of Carmelo's wedding today -- July 10 -- here in New York. But LeBron has been in Miami ever since the announcement on Thursday night. Why use the charity angle to assuage the guilt and lessening the blow so people would say "well, he IS doing it for charity, after all, so lay off" (which is what they undoubtedly hoped people thought). CUT THEM A CHECK AND KEEP IT MOVING.
If it were me, I would've just said "too bad, I'm outta here" and not gave a fuck what people thought. The whole farce was constructed BECAUSE LeBron cares about how he's perceived and it BACKFIRED, because now he has a whole state hating him for leaving and HOW he left, and the entire tri-state here (save for a few die-hard fans of his) who either were ambivalent and now hate him or were like me, liked watching him play, cynical and saw through the bullshit and am calling bullshit again with this -- who are turning against him after being supportive for 7 years. Contrary to what people like you claim, I don't hate him. Not even. I don't WORSHIP him like the stans do, but I hate overhype for someone who hasn't achieved anything, stars aligned or not. And before I even hear Kobe being brought up, that discussion can FOREVER be put to rest, now. No one is allowed to compare LeBron with him anymore. It wasn't a viable argument before, anyway. LeBron is huge no homo. He's 6'8" 265 and faster than almost everyone in the league. Stature-wise, Kobe is built like 100 other guys in the NBA at 6'6" 210. Kobe's footwork is impeccable. Hell, Hakeem personally taught him some of the moves he uses and Jordan nods in approval at his pivot moves. LeBron does none of that. As a student of the game and a miniature version of the thinking-man's player (I love using pivot moves, step-backs, Reggie Miller catch-and-shoots, triple threat, etc.) I give more credence to someone who does that better than anyone over someone who bulls over players and gets the benefit of the whistle 90% of the time. Across the board in terms of a polished game, Kobe is better. Notice I said POLISHED. People are in awe of LeBron's athleticism, thundering dunks and mesmerizing antics on the court. Hell, I love 'em myself. But POLISHED is what Jordan was and POLISHED is what Kobe is. I watch LeBron to be entertained, I watch Kobe to see perfection on the court.
BUT ENOUGH OF THAT, this article has nothing to do with Bryant.
I woulda been fine with him going to CHI or even NJ (and would've understood the latter much more with his supposed ties to Jay). But to do this in my backyard, under a farcical façade and then not choose New York, well, you can't expect me to jump on my arch-rival team's bandwagon, can you?
It's never been personal with me and that dude. If I saw him on the street, I'd give him pounds and I'm sure he's cool (minus the yes men handlers of his). Just like Jay. I hate how Jay rigged the game and got tight that Harlem dudes was getting more shine on his label, so he undercut them and did spiteful shit in order to sabotage their success. But if I met Jay in person and even did business with him, all that would be put aside. Haters aren't able to do that. So let's get that straight once and for all.
I have to re-emphasize this several times in a column, why? Because even after reading it (if the people who comment first EVEN DO SO), people will still claim it. If you haven't played, coached, refereed the game, and don't know the history of the game down through the years and a purist, then why try to tell me what to think here?
At any rate, I'm not like some of the people who I've heard talk lately. Everywhere I've gone the past three days in the city, I hear people talking about it. This one guy was homicidal today when I was down by Wall Street. He was furious that LeBron didn't come. Cavs fans and Cavs' owner Dan Gilbert have shown their asses ever since Thursday night. I'm embarrassed to be part of the same human race with such people. It wasn't that serious. I didn't hold candlelight vigil outside of Madison Square Garden hoping he would come and then flip out when he didn't choose us. The Knicks have been at the bottom of the totem pole for New York fans for a decade. It was funny to see "taunts" on my Facebook and Twitter pages from fans of teams that have won exactly nothing -- I might add -- as if I was someplace whimpering in a corner or ready to jump off the ledge like Cleveland fans. I wasn't. Far from it (in fact, I was tight about the MTA and its antics -- which I will write about later tonight -- more than LeBron could have EVER made me) You wanna know why I am ambivalent (now that the initial disappointment is over?)
I HAVE THE YANKEES AND GIANTS TO SUPPORT.
God bless and Good Night.
My Open Letter To My Friends
My Open Letter To My Friends
M.D. Wright
7.10.10
I feel compelled to write to my true friends for many reasons. Some of it, to clear up any assumptions that may be out there because of things that are said (and unsaid) or my lack of interaction outside of Facebook or my absence from all the events, parties and what have you that I have been invited to for the past few months. I feel disgusted because of my entire situation and shuttling back and forth between Harlem and Staten Island almost daily (and having to crash on SI when I'm not Uptown) just makes things even more unnerving.
There are some of you who are great at letting me know when things are going on, inviting me, wanting me to be in your presence and I greatly appreciate it. I am not aloof. Those of you who hang around me here in New York or those in other states who have known me for years know I am a sociable person and when I'm around good people, I love to have a good time and people feel good having laughs with my robust sense of humor and overall warm presence. I try to do what I can, but I am simply in an impossible situation and coupled with all the stresses that I have on my plate at the moment, making it to even 1 in every 10 things I am invited to is a daunting task.
When I graduated from UNCG, my plan was to go back Uptown. I would have been closer to any job prospects, landed a job sooner, had more available housing options and been able to do my real estate gig on the side much more easily. I had spent three of the four years at UNCG applying for jobs all over North Carolina, DMV and back here in New York and the tri-state (even applied for a few dozen in Jersey, Westchester and even Connecticut), along with Florida and Puerto Rico. I've expressed willingness to travel abroad to work if the opportunity presented itself and such an arrangement necessitated that sort of travel. I came up with NOTHING after submitting over 15,000 applications online between March 2006 and July 2010. I've hustled just as hustlers do, and had a few gigs here and there, but I haven't had a permanent, full-time, salaried job since August 2005. I have no idea how someone who busts their ass trying to find such gainful employment can come up short for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS. It is beyond me. I don't care WHAT the economy looks like.
Anyway, that led me to reach out to my aunt who I used to live with in Newark many years ago. Back then, when I wasn't in Brooklyn in school or in Harlem -- either at her office, with friends or huggin' the block, I was out in Jersey and thankfully, she's always looked out for me. Otherwise, I would've been dead ass homeless. I have relatives in every borough, but at age 30 (last year), I shudder at the thought of not having my own place when I was accustomed to that for the past few years. Although the situation is less than ideal (even if it were Uptown and not Staten Island), I shant complain. She's been very gracious and welcoming and has made things a bit less stressful for me when I have otherwise been stressed out to the max for the past 14 months.
I managed to land a summer camp counselor job through a now-former friend last year and that was a train wreck from the get-go. I won't get into that again, as I wrote about it in-depth when it ended horribly last August, but that precluded me from interviewing for anything in Manhattan all summer. It eventually set me up for an awful summer -- couldn't hang with my friends for more than one weekend in a month -- and an even worse fall and winter; as I was broke, the commute is even more unnerving when it is cold and there were no job prospects nor any resources available to start a business (you know people who have never had to struggle to survive are quick to tell you to "create your own opportunities" when you've bankrupted yourself just to pay for college OUT OF POCKET for four years and spent three other years and tens of thousands of dollars on two other businesses that I never truly could dedicate any time to due to my ministry and academic requirements). To make matters worse, SOMEHOW, being an ideal candidate for the public assistance programs that New York City and New York State offer, I had been ineligible to receive anything (even unemployment before embarking on a 9 month BITTER FIGHT for my benefits and still only received 1/4 of the $10,000 that was due to me) that would enable me to 1) get my own place, 2) subsist and 3) be in position to be gainfully employed again. Thoughts of starting another business had to be put on the back burner, because I had to worry about having clothes on my back, a roof over my head and food to eat ALONG WITH the massive costs of transporting myself with the ever-maddening MTA cutting services left and right but always threatening fare-hikes at the same time.
I went on 63 interviews from September 2009 until March 31, 2010. I felt like I wasted a colossal amount of time doing so. I know for a fact almost all of them only brought me in so that they could fulfill a "quota" of "interviewing" a certain number of "minority" candidates so that they wouldn't be cited for discrimination (hey folks, bullshit "interviews" and hiring unqualified buddies of yours or sticking to those who are "unthreatening" -- read: Whites, Asians, females and uneducated Black yes-men does not constitute "equal opportunity employer" status).
I finally hit with Rapid Realty, and while it would otherwise be good -- especially if I had stacks; which you need for ANY commission job (reminder: I left Aetna in August 2005 with 12 stacks -- I always had money before wasting it all on a useless Bachelor's Degree that I almost regret going back to school to get -- what has it done for me???) it's not right now. I have to commute two hours to get to ANY of our 15 offices and the majority of my clients have been less than ideal with their lack of funds, credit scores, understanding of the market and willingness to come off exorbitant requests for little to no money . It's highly frustrating, because I have now spent three months and been more of a tour guide than a realtor. And some of these people are native New Yorkers who have been through the process before.
Side note: please explain to me why someone expects to spend less than $1,500 but want to live on the Upper West Side? Or only want to spend $800 but want not to be in or NEAR the 'hood in Brooklyn? Are we THAT out of touch with reality, folks?
It has depleted my funds and not having much to begin with -- especially after being short-changed by the Dept. of Labor for my unemployment -- that isn't sitting well with me right now. I'm back in that vicious cycle where I really don't care anymore and it's dangerous for me and for those who get in my way. Consider this a warning.
I am not a drunkard, but I would have liked to have gone to Nevada's every (or at least most) Thursday, or go to shows, house parties, Hip Hop festivals, events that I get invited to (Tisha Blu Moon, this is to you ha) and what have you, but again, if I'm not in Harlem, I can't fathom doing it. If I have drinks, the 2 hour commute isn't palatable to me. Most people have a 20-30 minute subway/bus/cab ride home after such an evening. I have a 20 minute walk, a subway ride (or two, in some cases), the ferry or the express bus and then ANOTHER bus (or a 20 minute walk on the tail end of it) to consider. Raise your hand if you feel like doing that after you've partied, had drinks, had some kush/haze, etc. I DIDN'T THINK SO.
I just want you all to know I am not being standoffish and "stuck up". I hate weekends. Most of you live for them, but they are the most uneventful times of the week for me. The MTA is at its worst on the weekends and the express buses run both more infrequently and don't go anywhere NEAR my house on weekends. I am going to put the MTA on blast in another blog coming up later tonight.
However, I am holding out hope that something will break soon. I have a promising interview on Monday in Herald Square and I'm still lining up appointments for real estate (but only by appointment-only and pretty much taking referrals from my friends and friends of friends; chasing down half-assed leads has me on icy terms with my company because they're expecting me to turn water into wine when I'm dealing with people with Section 8 budgets looking for a fucking Upper East Side penthouse with their ridiculous demands).
Nevertheless, it is what it is.
All I can say is, despite it all, I play hard every day trying to do my best to remedy the situation with ZERO help from anyone.
God Bless and Good Night.
M.D. Wright
7.10.10
I feel compelled to write to my true friends for many reasons. Some of it, to clear up any assumptions that may be out there because of things that are said (and unsaid) or my lack of interaction outside of Facebook or my absence from all the events, parties and what have you that I have been invited to for the past few months. I feel disgusted because of my entire situation and shuttling back and forth between Harlem and Staten Island almost daily (and having to crash on SI when I'm not Uptown) just makes things even more unnerving.
There are some of you who are great at letting me know when things are going on, inviting me, wanting me to be in your presence and I greatly appreciate it. I am not aloof. Those of you who hang around me here in New York or those in other states who have known me for years know I am a sociable person and when I'm around good people, I love to have a good time and people feel good having laughs with my robust sense of humor and overall warm presence. I try to do what I can, but I am simply in an impossible situation and coupled with all the stresses that I have on my plate at the moment, making it to even 1 in every 10 things I am invited to is a daunting task.
When I graduated from UNCG, my plan was to go back Uptown. I would have been closer to any job prospects, landed a job sooner, had more available housing options and been able to do my real estate gig on the side much more easily. I had spent three of the four years at UNCG applying for jobs all over North Carolina, DMV and back here in New York and the tri-state (even applied for a few dozen in Jersey, Westchester and even Connecticut), along with Florida and Puerto Rico. I've expressed willingness to travel abroad to work if the opportunity presented itself and such an arrangement necessitated that sort of travel. I came up with NOTHING after submitting over 15,000 applications online between March 2006 and July 2010. I've hustled just as hustlers do, and had a few gigs here and there, but I haven't had a permanent, full-time, salaried job since August 2005. I have no idea how someone who busts their ass trying to find such gainful employment can come up short for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS. It is beyond me. I don't care WHAT the economy looks like.
Anyway, that led me to reach out to my aunt who I used to live with in Newark many years ago. Back then, when I wasn't in Brooklyn in school or in Harlem -- either at her office, with friends or huggin' the block, I was out in Jersey and thankfully, she's always looked out for me. Otherwise, I would've been dead ass homeless. I have relatives in every borough, but at age 30 (last year), I shudder at the thought of not having my own place when I was accustomed to that for the past few years. Although the situation is less than ideal (even if it were Uptown and not Staten Island), I shant complain. She's been very gracious and welcoming and has made things a bit less stressful for me when I have otherwise been stressed out to the max for the past 14 months.
I managed to land a summer camp counselor job through a now-former friend last year and that was a train wreck from the get-go. I won't get into that again, as I wrote about it in-depth when it ended horribly last August, but that precluded me from interviewing for anything in Manhattan all summer. It eventually set me up for an awful summer -- couldn't hang with my friends for more than one weekend in a month -- and an even worse fall and winter; as I was broke, the commute is even more unnerving when it is cold and there were no job prospects nor any resources available to start a business (you know people who have never had to struggle to survive are quick to tell you to "create your own opportunities" when you've bankrupted yourself just to pay for college OUT OF POCKET for four years and spent three other years and tens of thousands of dollars on two other businesses that I never truly could dedicate any time to due to my ministry and academic requirements). To make matters worse, SOMEHOW, being an ideal candidate for the public assistance programs that New York City and New York State offer, I had been ineligible to receive anything (even unemployment before embarking on a 9 month BITTER FIGHT for my benefits and still only received 1/4 of the $10,000 that was due to me) that would enable me to 1) get my own place, 2) subsist and 3) be in position to be gainfully employed again. Thoughts of starting another business had to be put on the back burner, because I had to worry about having clothes on my back, a roof over my head and food to eat ALONG WITH the massive costs of transporting myself with the ever-maddening MTA cutting services left and right but always threatening fare-hikes at the same time.
I went on 63 interviews from September 2009 until March 31, 2010. I felt like I wasted a colossal amount of time doing so. I know for a fact almost all of them only brought me in so that they could fulfill a "quota" of "interviewing" a certain number of "minority" candidates so that they wouldn't be cited for discrimination (hey folks, bullshit "interviews" and hiring unqualified buddies of yours or sticking to those who are "unthreatening" -- read: Whites, Asians, females and uneducated Black yes-men does not constitute "equal opportunity employer" status).
I finally hit with Rapid Realty, and while it would otherwise be good -- especially if I had stacks; which you need for ANY commission job (reminder: I left Aetna in August 2005 with 12 stacks -- I always had money before wasting it all on a useless Bachelor's Degree that I almost regret going back to school to get -- what has it done for me???) it's not right now. I have to commute two hours to get to ANY of our 15 offices and the majority of my clients have been less than ideal with their lack of funds, credit scores, understanding of the market and willingness to come off exorbitant requests for little to no money . It's highly frustrating, because I have now spent three months and been more of a tour guide than a realtor. And some of these people are native New Yorkers who have been through the process before.
Side note: please explain to me why someone expects to spend less than $1,500 but want to live on the Upper West Side? Or only want to spend $800 but want not to be in or NEAR the 'hood in Brooklyn? Are we THAT out of touch with reality, folks?
It has depleted my funds and not having much to begin with -- especially after being short-changed by the Dept. of Labor for my unemployment -- that isn't sitting well with me right now. I'm back in that vicious cycle where I really don't care anymore and it's dangerous for me and for those who get in my way. Consider this a warning.
I am not a drunkard, but I would have liked to have gone to Nevada's every (or at least most) Thursday, or go to shows, house parties, Hip Hop festivals, events that I get invited to (Tisha Blu Moon, this is to you ha) and what have you, but again, if I'm not in Harlem, I can't fathom doing it. If I have drinks, the 2 hour commute isn't palatable to me. Most people have a 20-30 minute subway/bus/cab ride home after such an evening. I have a 20 minute walk, a subway ride (or two, in some cases), the ferry or the express bus and then ANOTHER bus (or a 20 minute walk on the tail end of it) to consider. Raise your hand if you feel like doing that after you've partied, had drinks, had some kush/haze, etc. I DIDN'T THINK SO.
I just want you all to know I am not being standoffish and "stuck up". I hate weekends. Most of you live for them, but they are the most uneventful times of the week for me. The MTA is at its worst on the weekends and the express buses run both more infrequently and don't go anywhere NEAR my house on weekends. I am going to put the MTA on blast in another blog coming up later tonight.
However, I am holding out hope that something will break soon. I have a promising interview on Monday in Herald Square and I'm still lining up appointments for real estate (but only by appointment-only and pretty much taking referrals from my friends and friends of friends; chasing down half-assed leads has me on icy terms with my company because they're expecting me to turn water into wine when I'm dealing with people with Section 8 budgets looking for a fucking Upper East Side penthouse with their ridiculous demands).
Nevertheless, it is what it is.
All I can say is, despite it all, I play hard every day trying to do my best to remedy the situation with ZERO help from anyone.
God Bless and Good Night.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Explaining Free Agency: By The Numbers (And Knicks Scenarios For 0'10)
Explaining Free Agency: By The Numbers (And Knicks Scenarios For 0'10)
M.D. Wright
7.1.10
I need to school some'a yah, because I swear I hear nothing but video game scenarios when it comes to these free agent signings. I blame ESPN partly for all of the fodder, because I think a lot of their willfully erroneous reporting of the salary cap situations of the Bulls and Heat (neither can sign two max salary players, despite everything that has been said over the past two weeks) has fueled the rampant speculation.
First of all, the Knicks are the ONLY team that can offer two max contracts. The Heat can only do so if Wade becomes a free agent (and he doesn't have Bird Rights). Even if he does so, the Heat must re-sign him and any two "max players" who were to go to to Miami would need to settle for 90% of the maximum salary (based off their previous contracts which expired on June 30, 2010 when they either became unrestricted or exercised out of their player options to extend their previous deals). Why this isn't being reported properly is beyond me.
Same with the Bulls. I hear James Johnson and Luol Deng being mentioned as sacrificial lambs with regards to clearing off the remaining space the Bulls need to be able to sign two guys. For one, James Johnson is on his rookie scale contract. That won't clear enough space. Deng is set to make a little over $11M in 2010-2011, but coming off an injury-riddled season and only being slightly above average as is, who wants that contract? Especially when all sane (which describes 28 of the 30 GMs in the NBA if you're scoring at home) GMs know the Bulls are doing this to land LeBron James and Chris Bosh? Contrary to what people thought about the Grizzlies/Lakers trade in early 2008, which wasn't gift-wrapped (the Lakers gambled, mortgaged their future by giving up multiple draft picks -- one of which was used to draft OJ Mayo, an expiring contract worth $9M in Kwame Brown, the rights to Marc Gasol -- who may end up being better than his brother Pau and Javaris Crittendon in the process -- ALL to take the risk that Pau Gasol would acclimate to the Lakers' triple post offense quickly enough to be successful -- he did and so they won back to back titles. But it was a huge risk for a guy who was viewed as middling and grossly overpaid at $21M per leading up to the 2008-2009 season).
First of all, the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement has several "Exceptions" written into the language. With all the rumors, speculation and armchair GMs swearing up and down that they know something, I have to dispel this garbage with some hard facts that will either preclude or enable teams to make deals.
Secondly, the Heat may indeed find suckers to take on Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers (while surrendering draft picks and cash considerations in the process) in order to clear off the space they need to sign the two players they covet, but just as is the case with the Bulls, who is going to willfully help Pat Riley out while crippling their team in the process with two do-nothing players whose contracts, even when they expire, don't even enable the trade partner with the Heat to even sign a player above the Mid-Level Exception?
Segue.
The "Exceptions" are plentiful, let's get right to them.
Mid-Level Exception
A team is allowed to sign one player to a contract equal to the average NBA salary, even if the team is over the salary cap already, or if the signing would put them over the cap. This is known as the Mid-level exception (MLE). The MLE may be used on an individual free agent or split among multiple free agents, and is available to any team that exceeds the salary cap at the beginning of the offseason. The Mid-Level Exception for the 2008-09 NBA season was $5.585 million. The MLE is $5.854 million for the 2009-10 NBA regular season.
An example would be the Toronto Raptors' acquisition of Jason Kapono during the 2007 off-season, and the Los Angeles Lakers' signing of Ron Artest in 2009.
Bi-annual Exception
The bi-annual exception may be used to sign any free agent to a contract starting at $1.672 million. Like the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception can also be split among more than one player, and can be used to sign players for up to two years, with raises limited to 8% per year. This exception was referred to as the "$1 million exception" in the 1999 CBA, although it was valued at $1 million for only the first year of the agreement.
An example of the bi-annual exception was the Los Angeles Lakers' signing of Karl Malone to a contract before the 2003-04 season.
Rookie Exception
The CBA allows teams to sign their 1st-round draft choices to rookie "scale" contracts even if their payroll exceeds the cap.
Larry Bird Exception
Perhaps the most well-known of the NBA's salary cap exceptions, it is so named because the Boston Celtics were the first team permitted to exceed the salary cap to re-sign one of their own players (in that case, Larry Bird). Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "qualifying veteran free agents" or "Bird Free Agents" in the CBA, and this exception falls under the auspices of the Veteran Free Agent exception. In essence, the Larry Bird exception allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, at an amount up to the maximum salary. To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can obtain "Bird rights" by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination thereof. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Bird exception to re-sign him. Bird-exception contracts can be up to six years in length.
Early Bird Exception
This is the lesser form of the Larry Bird Exception. Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "early qualifying veteran free agents," and qualify after playing two seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. Using this exception, a team can re-sign its own free agent for either 175% of his salary the previous season, or the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater. Early Bird contracts must be for at least two seasons, but can last no longer than five seasons. If a team agrees to a trade that would make a player lose his Early Bird Rights, he has the power to veto the trade.
A much-publicized example for this was Devean George, who vetoed his inclusion into a larger trade during the 2007-08 season that would have sent him from the Dallas Mavericks to the New Jersey Nets.
Non-Bird Exception
Free Agents who qualify for this exception are called "non-qualifying free agents" in the CBA, meaning they do not qualify under either the Larry Bird Exception or the Early Bird Exception. Under this exception, teams can re-sign a player to a contract beginning at either 120% of his salary for the previous season, or 120% of the league's minimum salary, whichever amount is higher. Contracts signed under the Non-Bird exception can last up to six years.
OTHER EXCEPTIONS
Minimum Salary Exception: Teams can sign players for the NBA's minimum salary even if they are over the cap, for up to two years in length. In the case of two-year contracts, the second-season salary is the minimum salary for that season. The contract may not contain a signing bonus. This exception also allows minimum-salary players to be acquired via trade. There is no limit to the number of players that can be signed or acquired using this exception.
Traded Player Exception: If a team trades away a player with a higher salary than the player they acquire in return (we'll call this initial deal "Trade #1"), they receive what is called a Traded Player Exception, also known colloquially as a "Trade Exception". Teams with a trade exception have up to a year in which they can acquire more salary in other trades (Trade #2, #3, etc) than they send away, as long as the gulf in salaries for Trade #2, #3, etc are less than or equal to the difference in salary for Trade #1. This exception is particularly useful when teams trade draft picks straight-up for a player; since draft picks have no salary value, often the only way to get salaries to match is to use a trade exception, which allows trades to be made despite unbalanced salaries. It is also useful to compensate teams for losing free agents as they can do a sign and trade of that free agent to acquire a trade exception that can be used later. Note this exception is for single player trades only, though additional cash and draft picks can be part of the trade.
Disabled Player Exception: Allows a team that is over the cap to acquire a replacement for a disabled player who will be out for either the remainder of that season (for in-season injuries/deaths) or the next season (if the disability occurs during the offseason). The maximum salary of the replacement player is either 50% of the injured player's salary, or the average salary, whichever is less. This exception requires an NBA-designated doctor to verify the extent of the injury.
Note that while teams can often use one exception to sign multiple players, they cannot use a combination of exceptions to sign a single player.
--------------
Now that I have put that out there, THE KNICKS HAVE BIRD RIGHTS ON DAVID LEE.
Why is this important? Because it dispels the notion that we cannot sign any players. The Knicks have 7 players under contract. The Heat only have 3 (before Wade opts out, IF he does). The Bulls only have 5. The Knicks have more tangible cap space than either one, because as I have mentioned many times before (and reiterated by explaining the exceptions in detail for the lackwits who refuse to cognate simply logic nor simply READ), we can sign TWO MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS, regardless of a sign and trade -- before even doing anything with Lee. We don't HAVE to trade him to Toronto (although the Raptors would like it, so would the Suns -- since they can possibly lose Stoudemire for nothing). We can sign him after signing two max players, to a near-maximum contract and exceed the salary cap in doing so, because that's what the whole Bird Rights clause was all about 20 years ago when it was instituted. But the idiots bellyaching the most on message boards and the talking heads on ESPN have yet to mention this, when it looms LARGE in this free agent market for 0'10.
Not to mention the full mid-level exception to add a player along the lines of Richard Hamilton (who plays the same position as Ben Gordon and is expendable) and Mike Miller and a host of other secondary wing players who would jump at the chance to win alongside of James and Bosh -- added to the youth of Douglas, Lee, Gallinari and Chandler.
After those players, the Knicks can make a qualifying offer to Sergio Rodriguez to ensure a steady backup, and/or trade Eddy Curry (who exercised his player option for 2010-2011 the other day -- and is set to become an unrestricted free agent next July at $12M; cap space for teams next offseason = big value), one of the 2010 picks in this year's draft by the Knicks, the Rockets' 1st round lottery-protected pick for next year and even cash considerations to either New Orleans (Chris Paul) or Denver (Carmelo Anthony).
I'm still waiting for ESPN or any other sports outlet to report these very real possibilities and not impossibilities such as James, Bosh and Wade playing together in Miami (with 7 total players and no bench whatsoever) or Rose, James, Bosh, Noah and whoever (when the Bulls will not have takers for Deng's contract to even make it happen to begin with -- and again, as with Miami -- NO BENCH WHATSOEVER).
Rob Parker is one of the few people who wrote an article even scratching the surface on this and it didn't even receive 100 comments (Miami and Chicago rumor-based columns received 3,000 apiece), and almost all of the comments on Parker's column were Knick bashers and people from outta town who have inferiority complexes to New Yorkers.
Hmmmmm.
M.D. Wright
7.1.10
I need to school some'a yah, because I swear I hear nothing but video game scenarios when it comes to these free agent signings. I blame ESPN partly for all of the fodder, because I think a lot of their willfully erroneous reporting of the salary cap situations of the Bulls and Heat (neither can sign two max salary players, despite everything that has been said over the past two weeks) has fueled the rampant speculation.
First of all, the Knicks are the ONLY team that can offer two max contracts. The Heat can only do so if Wade becomes a free agent (and he doesn't have Bird Rights). Even if he does so, the Heat must re-sign him and any two "max players" who were to go to to Miami would need to settle for 90% of the maximum salary (based off their previous contracts which expired on June 30, 2010 when they either became unrestricted or exercised out of their player options to extend their previous deals). Why this isn't being reported properly is beyond me.
Same with the Bulls. I hear James Johnson and Luol Deng being mentioned as sacrificial lambs with regards to clearing off the remaining space the Bulls need to be able to sign two guys. For one, James Johnson is on his rookie scale contract. That won't clear enough space. Deng is set to make a little over $11M in 2010-2011, but coming off an injury-riddled season and only being slightly above average as is, who wants that contract? Especially when all sane (which describes 28 of the 30 GMs in the NBA if you're scoring at home) GMs know the Bulls are doing this to land LeBron James and Chris Bosh? Contrary to what people thought about the Grizzlies/Lakers trade in early 2008, which wasn't gift-wrapped (the Lakers gambled, mortgaged their future by giving up multiple draft picks -- one of which was used to draft OJ Mayo, an expiring contract worth $9M in Kwame Brown, the rights to Marc Gasol -- who may end up being better than his brother Pau and Javaris Crittendon in the process -- ALL to take the risk that Pau Gasol would acclimate to the Lakers' triple post offense quickly enough to be successful -- he did and so they won back to back titles. But it was a huge risk for a guy who was viewed as middling and grossly overpaid at $21M per leading up to the 2008-2009 season).
First of all, the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement has several "Exceptions" written into the language. With all the rumors, speculation and armchair GMs swearing up and down that they know something, I have to dispel this garbage with some hard facts that will either preclude or enable teams to make deals.
Secondly, the Heat may indeed find suckers to take on Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers (while surrendering draft picks and cash considerations in the process) in order to clear off the space they need to sign the two players they covet, but just as is the case with the Bulls, who is going to willfully help Pat Riley out while crippling their team in the process with two do-nothing players whose contracts, even when they expire, don't even enable the trade partner with the Heat to even sign a player above the Mid-Level Exception?
Segue.
The "Exceptions" are plentiful, let's get right to them.
Mid-Level Exception
A team is allowed to sign one player to a contract equal to the average NBA salary, even if the team is over the salary cap already, or if the signing would put them over the cap. This is known as the Mid-level exception (MLE). The MLE may be used on an individual free agent or split among multiple free agents, and is available to any team that exceeds the salary cap at the beginning of the offseason. The Mid-Level Exception for the 2008-09 NBA season was $5.585 million. The MLE is $5.854 million for the 2009-10 NBA regular season.
An example would be the Toronto Raptors' acquisition of Jason Kapono during the 2007 off-season, and the Los Angeles Lakers' signing of Ron Artest in 2009.
Bi-annual Exception
The bi-annual exception may be used to sign any free agent to a contract starting at $1.672 million. Like the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception can also be split among more than one player, and can be used to sign players for up to two years, with raises limited to 8% per year. This exception was referred to as the "$1 million exception" in the 1999 CBA, although it was valued at $1 million for only the first year of the agreement.
An example of the bi-annual exception was the Los Angeles Lakers' signing of Karl Malone to a contract before the 2003-04 season.
Rookie Exception
The CBA allows teams to sign their 1st-round draft choices to rookie "scale" contracts even if their payroll exceeds the cap.
Larry Bird Exception
Perhaps the most well-known of the NBA's salary cap exceptions, it is so named because the Boston Celtics were the first team permitted to exceed the salary cap to re-sign one of their own players (in that case, Larry Bird). Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "qualifying veteran free agents" or "Bird Free Agents" in the CBA, and this exception falls under the auspices of the Veteran Free Agent exception. In essence, the Larry Bird exception allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, at an amount up to the maximum salary. To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can obtain "Bird rights" by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination thereof. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Bird exception to re-sign him. Bird-exception contracts can be up to six years in length.
Early Bird Exception
This is the lesser form of the Larry Bird Exception. Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "early qualifying veteran free agents," and qualify after playing two seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. Using this exception, a team can re-sign its own free agent for either 175% of his salary the previous season, or the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater. Early Bird contracts must be for at least two seasons, but can last no longer than five seasons. If a team agrees to a trade that would make a player lose his Early Bird Rights, he has the power to veto the trade.
A much-publicized example for this was Devean George, who vetoed his inclusion into a larger trade during the 2007-08 season that would have sent him from the Dallas Mavericks to the New Jersey Nets.
Non-Bird Exception
Free Agents who qualify for this exception are called "non-qualifying free agents" in the CBA, meaning they do not qualify under either the Larry Bird Exception or the Early Bird Exception. Under this exception, teams can re-sign a player to a contract beginning at either 120% of his salary for the previous season, or 120% of the league's minimum salary, whichever amount is higher. Contracts signed under the Non-Bird exception can last up to six years.
OTHER EXCEPTIONS
Minimum Salary Exception: Teams can sign players for the NBA's minimum salary even if they are over the cap, for up to two years in length. In the case of two-year contracts, the second-season salary is the minimum salary for that season. The contract may not contain a signing bonus. This exception also allows minimum-salary players to be acquired via trade. There is no limit to the number of players that can be signed or acquired using this exception.
Traded Player Exception: If a team trades away a player with a higher salary than the player they acquire in return (we'll call this initial deal "Trade #1"), they receive what is called a Traded Player Exception, also known colloquially as a "Trade Exception". Teams with a trade exception have up to a year in which they can acquire more salary in other trades (Trade #2, #3, etc) than they send away, as long as the gulf in salaries for Trade #2, #3, etc are less than or equal to the difference in salary for Trade #1. This exception is particularly useful when teams trade draft picks straight-up for a player; since draft picks have no salary value, often the only way to get salaries to match is to use a trade exception, which allows trades to be made despite unbalanced salaries. It is also useful to compensate teams for losing free agents as they can do a sign and trade of that free agent to acquire a trade exception that can be used later. Note this exception is for single player trades only, though additional cash and draft picks can be part of the trade.
Disabled Player Exception: Allows a team that is over the cap to acquire a replacement for a disabled player who will be out for either the remainder of that season (for in-season injuries/deaths) or the next season (if the disability occurs during the offseason). The maximum salary of the replacement player is either 50% of the injured player's salary, or the average salary, whichever is less. This exception requires an NBA-designated doctor to verify the extent of the injury.
Note that while teams can often use one exception to sign multiple players, they cannot use a combination of exceptions to sign a single player.
--------------
Now that I have put that out there, THE KNICKS HAVE BIRD RIGHTS ON DAVID LEE.
Why is this important? Because it dispels the notion that we cannot sign any players. The Knicks have 7 players under contract. The Heat only have 3 (before Wade opts out, IF he does). The Bulls only have 5. The Knicks have more tangible cap space than either one, because as I have mentioned many times before (and reiterated by explaining the exceptions in detail for the lackwits who refuse to cognate simply logic nor simply READ), we can sign TWO MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS, regardless of a sign and trade -- before even doing anything with Lee. We don't HAVE to trade him to Toronto (although the Raptors would like it, so would the Suns -- since they can possibly lose Stoudemire for nothing). We can sign him after signing two max players, to a near-maximum contract and exceed the salary cap in doing so, because that's what the whole Bird Rights clause was all about 20 years ago when it was instituted. But the idiots bellyaching the most on message boards and the talking heads on ESPN have yet to mention this, when it looms LARGE in this free agent market for 0'10.
Not to mention the full mid-level exception to add a player along the lines of Richard Hamilton (who plays the same position as Ben Gordon and is expendable) and Mike Miller and a host of other secondary wing players who would jump at the chance to win alongside of James and Bosh -- added to the youth of Douglas, Lee, Gallinari and Chandler.
After those players, the Knicks can make a qualifying offer to Sergio Rodriguez to ensure a steady backup, and/or trade Eddy Curry (who exercised his player option for 2010-2011 the other day -- and is set to become an unrestricted free agent next July at $12M; cap space for teams next offseason = big value), one of the 2010 picks in this year's draft by the Knicks, the Rockets' 1st round lottery-protected pick for next year and even cash considerations to either New Orleans (Chris Paul) or Denver (Carmelo Anthony).
I'm still waiting for ESPN or any other sports outlet to report these very real possibilities and not impossibilities such as James, Bosh and Wade playing together in Miami (with 7 total players and no bench whatsoever) or Rose, James, Bosh, Noah and whoever (when the Bulls will not have takers for Deng's contract to even make it happen to begin with -- and again, as with Miami -- NO BENCH WHATSOEVER).
Rob Parker is one of the few people who wrote an article even scratching the surface on this and it didn't even receive 100 comments (Miami and Chicago rumor-based columns received 3,000 apiece), and almost all of the comments on Parker's column were Knick bashers and people from outta town who have inferiority complexes to New Yorkers.
Hmmmmm.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
2010 NBA Free Agent Forecast
2010 NBA Free Agent Forecast
M.D. Wright
6.30.10
The much discussed 2010 NBA Free Agent class is nearly in session. Teams can begin officially negotiating contracts with unrestricted free agents, and some players will officially become restricted free agents (able to opt out of their deals, exercise player options and teams can void contracts if they have options on a player) at 12:01 AM, EDT on July 1.
With all the talk about where LeBron James will go (Cleveland is 99.999% not going to be the locale) along with Dwyane Wade (if anywhere at all), Chris Bosh and a host of other players, the time is fitting to put the official stamp on the entire magilla right here and right now.
----
First of all, here is what I wrote back on May 23, 2010:
I get asked daily "Mike, where do you think so and so is going after the season???" Hey, I'm not in those guys' heads. I dunno. People think "going back home" is automatically atop a guy's list of priorities when considering signing with a different team. It rarely is, in reality -- going back to familiar surroundings usually means more trouble than success; as guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and others have realized. So to propose with authority that I know where someone is going to sign is ludicrous. I can only guess, based off factors such as teams' salary cap space, existing rosters/teams' needs, who is truly a "max player" (there are only 7 or 8 in the NBA in 2010 -- and that's being generous) and how championship-ready a team is. Some teams run their franchises as a business. Others are in it SOLELY focused on winning 'chips -- and money comes as a result.
With that said, here is the list:
(Again, note that with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, there is contract-specific language and there are different types of Free Agents)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Ray Allen, Boston
Emanuel Ginobili, San Antonio
Marcus Camby, Portland
Tracy McGracy, New York
Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland
Brad Miller, Chicago
Jermaine O'Neal, Miami
Mike Miller, Washington
Richard Hamilton, Detroit
There are some intriguing names on this list. None of them are superstars (the one or two who once were are DONE), but they can be effective players on new teams. A few will have to take massive pay-cut (McGrady, Allen, BOTH O'Neals, for instance) just to be able to crack a roster on a good team, because most of the contenders are pressed against the cap, well over the cap, aren't necessarily looking for another superstar (and obviously unable to afford one), so thus will be using their mid-level exceptions (and any other exception the NBA grants them) to sign players.
Speaking of exceptions, the number of lackwit buffoons on message boards, Facebook, team pages running around with theories about where certain players "definitely won't be going" astounds me and sometimes makes me chuckle. I see and hear anti-Knick hatred all the time. Fans who hated the Knicks in the 90s took delight in watching the Knicks struggle like a dyslexic reading Latin, but one of my favourite jabs is "the Knicks only have 3 players under contract for next season" (we have 6, and another has a player option -- Eddy Curry, who I HOPE doesn't use it ha), and "how can the Knicks sign LeBron, Wade or Bosh AND the 5 other spots that need to be filled?"
Look, there are a dozen different salary cap exceptions in the NBA. Most hacks only know about the Bird exceptions and the mid-level exceptions. But those are elementary both in intent and usage. Teams also have what is called a MINIMUM SALARY EXCEPTION -- which enables a team to sign as many players at the NBA League Minimum salary, guaranteed, for up to two years each -- as the team sees fit in order to fill their roster. In all honesty, in a scenario where the Knicks were to land two of the players they'd like and filling their roster, they can easily do this. #shotsfired at people who continue to think "there is no way LeBron is leaving Cleveland". Don't be so sure, the Knicks' stock hit the NYSE (as "MSG") last fall, and James would have the ability to buy stock in the team if he saw fit. Do we really want to count the number of benefits that playing in New York offers a player of his calibre -- a number which far exceeds any other city? INCLUDING Los Angeles?
Back to the column.
***MAX PLAYERS (IN MY OPINION):
LeBron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Pau Gasol
Carmelo Anthony
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Paul (when healthy)
* Dwight Howard
* - Denotes PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-POST GAME
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AS FOR PENDING FREE AGENTS --
I'm going to tackle each one of these players' attributes and surmise where I believe their options are in terms of a potential new team.
Joe Johnson.
You know me, I'm a blunt, straight-forward and honest guy. This dude is overrated. I heard people say for years "he's so underrated!" How so? He played for a bum team for years until Mike Woodson brought them to playoff level in 2008. Putting up big (hollow) numbers on bad teams isn't impressive to me. Especially when you don't get near the number of rebounds that you should, nor assists, and your defense is virtually non-existent.
Don't get me wrong, he can score and he shoots a decent percentage. But that just makes him Glenn Robinson Lite, not a MAX PLAYER. And what's more, his disappearance in the past two seasons' playoffs should be enough of a warning to teams who still had an idea that Johnson was a max-level player. He doesn't have the heart, complete skill set, the killer instinct, nor the explosive ability to change a game. Max players MUST have two of those four attributes to warrant a maximum contract, in my opinion. Johnson is a good complimentary piece, or he can dupe the Hawks into an Allan Houston move (getting the team to bid against itself, when no one else was offering near the contract that was eventually awarded). He isn't a guy you build around, but he's a good 2nd or 3rd option with the right mix of players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Atlanta, New Jersey, Miami, Washington.
Ray Allen.
Old Man Allen. The ex-Husky from UConn. He gets respect from me (although he lost some of it for a while there due to his verbal jabs/hating lobbed at Kobe a few years back when he was with Seattle), but he will be 35 in two months. And he was making $20M this season. That's not going to happen again, obviously. Two big questions arise with Allen, ESPECIALLY if the Celtics do not win the 2010 NBA Finals -- 1) Does he even want to continue playing? If so, for how long? and 2) How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? He may have to take a 40% cut down to $12M or even about a roughly 2/3 cut to accept the veteran's minimum and either remain in Boston and squeeze one more year out there, or play nomad and hitch his wagon to the Lakers or wherever LeBron James lands.
His situation is actually more alluring to me than most of the so-called "Top Tier" free agents, because he can still stroke it and is a glue guy who you can depend on every night to give you his best. I just do not see anyone paying him more than $10M-$12M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Any contender -- seriously (Boston, Cleveland -- should James remain, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas and non-contenders such as Chicago and New York).
Emanuel Ginobili.
I just don't see the Spurs parting with him under any circumstances. Although Richard Jefferson's contract was a bad move ($14.2M) by RC Buford and Gregg Popovich, the Spurs do still maintain enough flexibility to retain Ginobili. I honestly cannot see him playing elsewhere and the aforementioned front office tandem always knows how to work the cap and makes smart personnel moves.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: San Antonio.
Marcus Camby.
Interesting and intriguing. The guy was brittle when he was with the Knicks, but at the same time, his production here is what made him somewhat coveted in the 6 or 7 years since he was moved to Denver. I just have concerns about his age now. He is 36. However, he has been healthy the past 2-3 seasons and contributed mightily. Maybe all that time he sat over the years makes him more like 32, 33 than 36 ha?
We'll see, but I think Portland may keep him for a year or two, unless he really thinks he is worth more than the $7.6M he received last year -- just a shade over the mid-level exception. Could he return to New York? Who knows. The fans still love him here.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Portland, Detroit, Toronto, Charlotte.
Tracy McGrady.
The Knicks only traded for him in order to secure his expiring contract of $23M. He was easily the highest paid player in the NBA last season, which is embarrassing. Yes, he's been injured, but even at 100% health and 5 years ago McGrady wasn't worth that much money. However, the Knicks are glad he's coming off THEIR books. That frees up such cap space that the Knicks can sign two maximum level players. Thanks Tracy.
As to where he goes? It's tough to call. That balky knee of his flared up after just one (very good game, BTW) with the Knicks after the trade. He was hobbled and icing his knees like 1998's Patrick Ewing after that. Hard to imagine anyone wants him for anything more than the veteran's minimum or the MLE -- and even then, it would have to be a contender. None of the contender really needs someone of McGrady's ilk unless he is HEALTHY. And there is no guarantee that will be, after 5 straight seasons of various nicks and bumps, and trips on the injured list.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New York (VM), Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio, Oklahoma City.
Shaquille O'Neal.
Hard to say what he will do. He says he still wants to play (and claims he has 3-4 good years left?)
................
Anyway, his contract expired at the $20M annually he received when he initially went to Miami for 5 years, $100M. Everyone knows he's not getting that, and he's finally come back to earth long enough to realize he's not a #1 guy or even a #2 anymore. But if he is willing to subjugate himself into a proper role with the right team, he might be able to ride another team's coattails to another ring. But it won't be at $20M per. Nor $10M (unless Prokhorov decides to get crazy with the spending, and all indications are that he WON'T).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Jersey (Shaq is originally from Newark and could be a good backup), Orlando (irony on two levels, although it is only a funny possible storyline as the Magic are woefully over the cap due to the horrendous contracts of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter), San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City.
Brad Miller.
He doesn't have much left in the tank. When big men hit 33, 34, they really slide QUICKLY when it comes to athleticism. Miller, his age compounded by his past injuries looks the part. He doesn't give the Bulls much, as they would prefer to run. He's a better halfcourt player than anything else. Would be a good fit on a younger team such as Philadelphia or maybe Atlanta. And certainly not at $12.2M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Golden State, Philadelphia, Atlanta.
Jermaine O'Neal.
He's done. I always thought he was slightly overrated even at his apex. He's nearing the nadir of his career (I'm not entertaining the injury excuses anymore at this point) and with the astronomical contract he had before, there's no way he's getting more than the mid-level exception to maybe help the Rockets or Grizzlies. The Heat need his cap space to sign a couple of big name players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Houston, Memphis.
Mike Miller.
Mike Miller is a nice player, shoots well, sometimes plays defense and won't KILL you, causing you to lose games -- but he won't win them, either. He's just a nice addition to the right team. Indications are he's staying put, but it's hard to see how he's going to warrant a raise. He's making $10M at this point and the Bullets Wizards value the near-$30M in cap space they'll have should the front office decide not to pick up the $12M option on Josh Howard. Very interesting scenario in Washington.
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Washington, Houston, Miami, Boston.
Richard Hamilton.
Pretty much a one-trick pony at this point in his career -- definitely heading toward the downside. He was never strong enough to create his own shot consistently and at 32, obviously has lost a step. But the Pistons have a glut in their backcourt and with Ben Gordon tied up for 4 more years and $11M per, Hamilton is likely the odd man out. There's not a huge market for him. He's likely going to be one of those guys whose destination will be determined by what the Top Tier players decide to do, as he's gone from a Second Tier guy to a Third Tier guy in the past two seasons.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, Los Angeles (both teams).
There are guys with Player Options/Early Termination Options for 2010-2011, and can opt out this summer (2010) as well:
Yao Ming, Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire, Phoenix.
LeBron James, Cleveland.
Dwyane Wade, Miami.
Chris Bosh, Toronto.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas.
Josh Howard, Washington.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee.
Tyson Chandler, Charlotte.
A lot of room for hit-or-miss signings with these guys. James, Wade and Nowitzki are sure things. You know what you are going to get with them. Bosh, depending on the scenario, you do not know. Stoudemire can put up offensive numbers at times, but he doesn't play defense nor rebound as well as his height and athleticism would suggest. Chandler MUST be paired with a good-to-great point guard to even be effective, Josh Howard can't stay healthy and poor Michael Redd might just be done with those Patrick Ewing knees of his. Same with Yao and his Bill Walton feet.
Yao Ming.
You'd think Houston would be trying to hang onto him, broken foot and all -- injury history as a whole and all. I can't see them moving him, especially since they did nothing to fill the void (with the hopes he will return in 2010-2011; quite frankly he needed the rest after playing basketball year round on three continents for 8 straight years). I'm going to put this down as a lead-pipe lock pick that he's not moving. The Rockets even still have the cap space to re-sign him. What will be interesting is how Houston deals with the need to re-sign Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, both of whom are up (Scola being unrestricted, Hayes with a team-option).
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire.
I have seen him drop big numbers. He did so tonight (May 23, 2010). But his defensive deficiencies and lack of consistent rebounding preclude him from becoming a max player in my opinion. Nevertheless, he is 6'10", 240, still runs like a gazelle and is in the prime of his career, 7 years into the NBA and at age 28. Someone will make a run at him, although he is a 1b. type player. Not QUITE a max player, but just a hair under. Not a guy who would flourish without a Top 5 point guard. Will also be interesting to see how he works outside of a pick and roll system. However, someone will make a huge offer, and Stoudemire has the right of first refusal, as he has a player option to return at $17.7M next year in Phoenix.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Phoenix, Chicago, Miami, Wherever LeBron James goes.
LeBron James.
Listen, I've written extensively about this -- there is a nice summation on my Facebook page (for those who are friends with me on there), so I won't get into the whole deal again. Let's just break down the realities and diffuse all the armchair psychiatrist/wannabe GM talk.
1. No one knows what he is thinking, not World Wide Wes, not Jay-Z, not the city of Cleveland nor his most ardent fans, NOR DO YOU.
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Now that we have that out of the way.
1. Playing and excelling/winning in New York trumps everything. It trumps anything Chicago can possibly offer, anything Los Angeles can offer, as well as Washington, Miami and any other team whose fans have concocted baseless reasons for believing James is going to sign there. For all we know he has no intention to leave Cleveland whatsoever, but in lieu of recent events, that looks scant at best.
2. The Cavaliers as presently constructed were overrated from the get-go. Throwing Shaq onto the team set them back two steps from the three steps forward they had made last year. 2007 -- Finals appearance, 2008 -- lose to Boston, 2009 -- high expectations, reach conference finals and lose to Orlando, 2010, even HIGHER expectations and lose in the 2nd round to Boston once again. Mo Williams is a 3rd tier player getting 2nd tier player recognition (All-Star???) and top tier player expectation from Cavalier fans. Delonte West is a bona fide headcase, as "recent events" further prove. Shaq was done 3 years ago. Zydrunas Ilgaukas has been a nice story of resiliency, but expecting this much from a 37-year old is absurd. The rest of their players are (BAD) role players or flop artists.
SN: Ever notice that when a writer is trying to inflate a team's success in a given season, but they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs, they call it "Conference Semifinals" (which it technically is, but it is amazing the effect words have on their readers), but when piling on a team, it is called "2nd Round" to give an illusion that they did not accomplish much?
3. Despite all the reports, all the rumors, and assessing cap situations of all teams -- the only VIABLE (logic, hometown alliances aside) options where 3 other teams do not need to get involved are the New Jersey Nets and the New York Knicks. There have been reports that Chris Bosh of Toronto has a 5-team list that basically patterns itself after the teams that LeBron James is most likely to chose should he leave Cleveland at all. To hitch your future to the uncertainty of another is folly, but understandable in this case.
Dallas is $30M over the cap BEFORE they ship away a player or two in a trade just to be able to RE-SIGN DIRK NOWITZKI -- never mind even thinking about LeBron James.
Chicago would need to send Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich and hope Toronto accepts them as they're both grossly overpaid (but whose salaries would match Bosh's in a scenario where Bosh signed with Toronto for the maximum 6 years, $125M, or on the average about $21M annually) just to have the CHANCE to attempt to sign James.
Washington has the cap space, but there is uncertainty from the very top (The Pollin Family's sale of the team to Ted Leonsis will be complete in the next two weeks -- no guarantees that Grunfeld and Saunders will be there come November and no one knows whether Gilbert Arenas and his massive contract will be there either), even with the widely-understood idea that the Wizards are going to select John Wall out of Kentucky with their #1 Overall Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.
Meanwhile, Miami, while maneuvering around to generate the cap space must attempt to persuade Wade to remain, before entertaining the internet-generated rumor that James would join Wade in Miami because they are "best friends" (not because the salary cap precludes this, though, huh? Or more importantly, owner Mickey Arison is loathe to pay the luxury tax?) Throw it out. The Heat are a bigger reach than both NY area teams combined.
New Jersey has the cap space, and a couple of young pieces, but in my opinion on PAPER they are a long shot. I just don't know what new Russian owner Mike Prokhorov has up his sleeve. He sounds (from listening to him speak about his new toy, the Nets) like he knows how to work the NBA system. Besides, you don't become worth $14B without knowing how to manage money and make shrewd deals and acquisitions. If you have followed Mike closely, you hear him emphasize his desire to make the Nets a GLOBAL brand -- that most NBA owners think locally/Mom & Pop, while he's looking to break down global barriers. What better way than to have the soon-to-be (sharing the spotlight with The Snake, no homo, until 2014) solo face of the NBA in James, Yi Jianlian and possibly Dirk Nowitzki to cater to three distinct fan bases, here in the US, Germany and parts of Europe and southeast Asia? Bears watching -- I really think the Nets will be active in free agency. And they're right in my backyard, so I have eyes and ears on it daily.
New York has the cap space, the amenities and fringe benefits that no other team's city can offer. The Knicks' players are currently no worse without LeBron currently, than the current Cavaliers team will be should James leave. In fact, the Knicks can lure the "other" superstar that the Cavs have never been able to do in Cleveland. They can also sign one of the aforementioned players coming off max deals who would be willing to play for an exception or two just to have the chance to play alongside James and superstar to be named later, as they'd become the best team in the Eastern Conference by default. Again, bears watching. I pass by both MSG and the NBA HQ every day that I am in the city. I will most likely be standing outside one or the other when the signing occurs. If anything breaks, you'll hear it here ha.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: All of the above and throw in both Los Angeles teams should a three-team deal be worked out in either circumstance.
Dwyane Wade.
Simple. Surround him with another star and better complimentary players or wave goodbye. No way he's going to Chicago (this is where that "he can come home" BS needs to just go away, along with the Nancy Boys who think like this. There's too much drama there off the court and Rose is a Wade clone. That is not going to work.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Miami, New York.
Chris Bosh.
He has hitched his wagon to LeBron James without saying as much in so many words. James' signing will precipitate a domino effect, so the best bet when predicting Bosh's destination is to just follow James'. He's not returning to Toronto, and will most likely be accommodated by the team with a sign-and-trade deal (netting Bosh an extra year of making $2M more annually than signing outright with another team for five years).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Wherever LeBron James goes.
Dirk Nowitzki.
I have heard questions even before Dirk announced that he will opt out of his contract after all. I predicted he would, but not because of Dallas' playoff woes or to join James or Wade. The NBA has an obscure rule called the "Over-36" clause. Dirk will be 32 in June. Whereas the other major free agents are younger than 30, or are at least 6 years younger than their 36th birthday, Nowitzki is not. Why is this important, you ask? It isn't a MAJOR deal unless he were to sign elsewhere. Otherwise, the difference in getting a further extension on his current contract would net him virtually the same monies as if he signed a brand new contract with Dallas -- but he does have the option to sign for a 5th year with the team with that maximum annual salary that he will receive. If he were to sign outright with New Jersey, for instance, he could only receive a four-year deal with maximum salary. It is almost certain that he will remain in Dallas unless owner Mark Cuban is made an offer he cannot refuse.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Dallas, New Jersey, Miami.
Josh Howard.
So many missteps, so many times putting his foot in his mouth -- and on top of that, he hasn't been fully healthy in two seasons. He's only 30, but it is hard to imagine he will garner more than $10-$12M on the open market -- which is what he's currently making -- and most likely not in Washington, because he is not that type of impact player. I've been wrong before, but I just have a feeling he's heading back to the Western Conference.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Orleans, Golden State, Sacramento.
Michael Redd.
I wish son the best, but I haven't seen more than a small handful of guys come back from multiple knee injuries with little to no cartilage and be anything more than a fringe player at best.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Decent backup on the Top 4 at the mid-level.
Tyson Chandler.
Tough market for him. He's a big man, but limited skills. And after 9 seasons, he is what he is. He tries hard, but without even an above average point guard (neither Augustin [yet] nor Felton [will never be] is such) he cannot excel. Chris Paul made him look great, but he's been average since leaving New Orleans -- even when he is healthy. He is still just 27, so the Bobcats may keep him, as their main objective is to land a legitimate scorer on the wing who has a "closer" mentality. Right now, the only player available for the Cats to stand any realistic chance of landing (if he opts out) and meets that role is Jamal Crawford.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Charlotte.
More Opt-Out Guys:
Carlos Boozer, Utah
Chris Paul, New Orleans
I separate these two with good reason -- their futures have so many caveats tied to them that it is fathomable for them to do anything from remain with their current teams or go to one of a number of different teams. STAY TUNED. Boozer is a semi-impactful player, but Chris Paul is one of the max players who can shift a team's level of success just by stepping on the court.
And again, they may not even opt out, so it's not important to address them anymore than noting they are ELIGIBLE to opt out this summer as well as the others above.
Other free agents for 2010:
Ben Wallace, Detroit.
Larry Hughes, Charlotte.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland.
Al Harrington, New York.
Darko Milicic, Minnesota.
Udonis Haslem, Miami.
Jamal Crawford, Atlanta.
Eddy Curry, New York.
Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers.
(There are others, just none worth noting).
Wallace isn't costing the Pistons anything, and no one else wants him at this point in his career. Larry Hughes is on the cheap also. A good backup/3rd player/spot starter. Ilgauskas and Varejao can both opt out of their contracts with Cleveland along with LeBron and that's potentially huge. Al Harrington definitely will not be back with the Knicks at his cost and disjointed/missing production. Milicic is heading back overseas. Haslem is a decent player. Maybe he returns to Miami? Orlando could use an enforcer next to Howard. Crawford will remain in his division, in my opinion. Curry (if he is smart) will protect himself by using his player option for 2010-2011. However, the Knicks will protect themselves by using his then to-be expiring contract as bait to offer a trade either after the initial free agency period or later in February (Denver, for Anthony?) Fish is a Laker or retiring.
NEW YORK KNICKS NEEDS AND PERSONAL PREFERENCES:
1. The Knicks need someone to patrol the paint on both ends. Curry, even at his best, can only do that offensively. And he may not be back, anyway. There will be some question about who will be signed alongside any max player(s) the Knicks sign, as they will only have minimum cap space (before exceptions) to sign the other 5 players who will not be under contract -- in order to reach the NBA requisite minimum roster number of 13.
*** It should be noted that draft picks do not necessarily count towards the cap number for each team.
2. A NEW COACH (but that's personal).
D'Antoni may not be back, especially if that becomes a bone of contention for James and/or Bosh and determining whether they decide to come to New York or not.
PERSONAL:
What I'd like to see is Toronto execute a sign-and-trade with Chris Bosh, offer him the max deal he wants (although he is much like Stoudemire as a 1b.) and New York signs David Lee to a $12-$14M deal, sending another player (Rodriguez, who will then become an unrestricted free agent after next season) and cash considerations to Toronto.
Sign Dwyane Wade OR LeBron James.
With remaining cap space offer deals to either Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton or another player at the MLE and draft wisely.
OR
Sign LeBron James, Rudy Gay, trade for Caron Butler and offer one of the aforementioned players at the MLE. Yes, if you've put 2+2 together with these names, it APPEARS "that's" what I'm implying, but I'm not on that hokey "fill a roster with guys from the same school" nonsense -- it's just highly convenient that certain players are in walk years and others are coming up on them next year and would be effective on the same team.
To go with young Toney Douglas, Will The Thrill Chandler and Young Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) that would be a tough core and the best in the Eastern Conference.
Too many ifs, in-turns, and only once so and so does this, that or the third -- type scenarios to do more than speculate at this point. However, I will have bi-weekly updates once the NBA Finals conclude and especially (as situations warrant) once the NBA Draft is complete. I am planning to be present at the Draft this year, while failing last year to secure tickets while standing on a line with Jayson Albert in front of Madison Square Garden for over an hour. Live reports from inside if I am able to get in this year.
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AS FOR NOW, about six weeks later on June 30, 2010, a great number of beneath-the-surface caveats have formed. It is time to turn off ESPN, CBSportsline and Yahoo and break out the abacus, accounting notebook and learn the NBA's collective bargaining agreement. Because if you listen to ESPN hacks like Chad Ford and CHRIS BROUSSARD, you'd think the NBA's CBA was non-existent. Some of these supposed deals cannot happen. Plain and simple.
Breaking news:
Small Forward Paul Pierce opts out of his contract with the Boston Celtics. Interesting of note for a few reasons 1) Pierce will be 33 upon the arrival of the 2010-2011 NBA season. The Over-36 Rule weighs heavily into contract negotiations regarding an extension, as Boston cannot offer him more than 3 years on a new deal. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement may also prove to be prohibitive for Pierce. 2) Opting out gives the Celtics flexibility to potentially re-sign Shooting Guard Ray Allen. 3) Doc Rivers, in his poor attempt at imitating Brett Favre and Phil Jackson, decides today he will return to coach Boston and 4) Pierce DOES stand to receive an all-important 4th year and potentially $96M from a team outside of Boston. Celtics' GM Danny Ainge realistically and openly admitted the possibility that Pierce could bolt to another team for such a deal. Pierce leaves $21.5M on the table for the 2010-2011 season by opting out of his current deal. There is no way Boston is giving him that much on any contract going forward, because he is not worth it anymore, and again, will be 33 in October. Furthermore, the best the Celtics will probably offer is 3 years and about $49M. Even in doing so, signing Ray Allen will certainly put the Celtics over the luxury tax threshold and be a tell-tale sign that the Celtics are gearing up for another season with the thought that they can coast through the season (again) and hope to get hot late, as all three of their leading scorers are a year older. Bears watching, especially if Pierce does indeed leave Boston under some currently unforeseen circumstance.
Dallas Mavericks' Power Forward Dirk Nowitzki opts out of his contract with the team, but is in the same situation as Pierce with the Over 36 rule and potentially using the leverage that the player option provides to get close to the same $21M salary from Dallas for four more years without giving up the $3-$4M that he would almost certainly be giving up if he were not to be given an extension from Dallas or leave for another team (and only receive four years instead of five). There is an outside shot that Nowitzki leaves Dallas, but only to line up with a player like Dwyane Wade. There isn't a situation where Dirk will team with LeBron James, so anyone mentioning this is wishing.
The New Jersey Nets cleared $3M in cap space on June 29 by waiving Yi Jianlian. It doesn't do much for their hopes, because they still do not have the cap space to sign the requisite two max-level players it will need in order to acquire LeBron James. Dwyane Wade was out of their reach to begin with, and a player like Amaré Stoudemire was making more than most of the actual Top Tier free agents, meaning his max-contract dollar amount would be higher (he can make up to 105% more annually on a new deal, as can the others), so the prospect of signing any of those players in tandem is out. The Nets would have to trade one of the players they are building around to have an outside shot of signing two max-level players and hoping to be able to use a couple of league exceptions to lure another guy who they would be able to pay about $8-$9M annually to -- or stand pat and build wisely as Mike Prokhorov stated they would upon acquiring the team from Bruce (Rat)ner.
I have never understood the hype about the Bulls. Yes, Derrick Rose is a fine player who only stands to be great (his ceiling is higher than Rajon Rondo's and Deron Williams is already all that he will ever be, believe it or not), but there is no way the Bulls are getting LeBron James. The reason? They STILL do not have the cap room to sign two max players, especially not the ones they have been "rumored" to be after. I do not know how message board buffoonery ends up as front page fodder on ESPN or even mentioned over the airwaves as fact, but this has never been true. Had they not pulled a panic move and given away one of their main players (Kirk Hinrich $9M) and their 1st Round Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, Kevin Seraphim, they would barely be able to afford a max contract and enough money to add to the full mid-level exception to POSSIBLY pay another player $10M annually. That $10M certainly isn't going to be enough to lure any of the top names, and certainly not Chris Bosh, who is reportedly following LeBron James like a little brother with regards to signing destinations. Not when these guys were making 30%-40% more on their previous contracts. Winning is a great salve, but I doubt anyone (despite their declarations to the contrary) is SOLELY about winning and has a total disregard to finances, when they're looking at taking a nearly 50% pay cut (factor in the escalation in salary due to inflation written into the CBA) just for the PROSPECT of winning with a team that isn't more than a paper threat to uproot both of the current conference champions. A team of James, Rose, Noah and Bosh looks promising, but the Bulls would have a very thin bench, with currently only six players guaranteed signed through next season (including Noah and Rose). Yes, there are exceptions galore, and all teams under the cap can spend and bring in players who would otherwise set them over the spending limit as long as they are under the cap BEFORE the transaction takes place, but the Bulls' best options are to focus on acquiring a shooting guard (Joe Johnson) and a solid, albeit not great -- big man (Stoudemire). It is the most they can do unless they are able to find a taker for Luol Deng's embarrassing contract (Bryan Colangelo are you listening?)
Don't understand the Miami hype either. Bosh isn't one to spew lip service, and he echoes my sentiments (regarding the Wade, James, Bosh, player to be named later talks that have surfaced from NBA Trade Machine hacks and rabid Heat fans) "I don't see how it can happen". And I agree. People widely reported the Heat have $40M in cap space. They do not. The only way they can do so is if Wade opts out of his contract. By doing so, they will initially have space, but obviously the intent is to keep Wade and add two pieces for a "super team". And re-signing Wade to a new deal, with the 105% increase makes it prohibitive for the Heat to sign any more than one max player. Someone would have to be willing to take a contract in the range of $10-$12M in order for it to work the way the imbeciles on the sports message boards and talk radio claim they have "inside knowledge" about. The Heat have basically declined every team option and traded, waived and bought out everyone on their roster. They cannot re-sign PF Udonis Haslem and acquire any more than one of these guys and no GM is going to be willing to take SF Michael Beasley nor PG Mario Chalmers without the Heat mortgaging their future by giving up a 1st Round Pick or two (this is my insinuation regarding a possible sign and trade for Bosh or Nowitzki). If you're counting at home, that would leave the Heat with 5 contract players, no cap space for a bench, no 1st round picks in 2011 and/or possibly 2012 and still no lock to even make the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are better off (if Wade stays) signing Carlos Boozer for a little less than the max and HOPING that is enough to lure James to Ocean Blvd. They could then use their mid level exception to bring in the shooter they will desperately need as they basically gave away Daequan Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder along with their 18th pick in the 1st round of the 2010 NBA Draft. The nonsense needs to die. The Heat made a last ditch effort to get in position to be able to TALK, but they're not any closer to signing the players people seem to think they will.
SF Rudy Gay was given a qualifying offer from the Memphis Grizzlies. This is big, because it sets the market for Gay. Teams know how much they are going to have to offer to lure him from Memphis and any talks about lining him up with wherever Wade or James goes has to be taken into consideration with the offer sheet granted by Memphis. No news yet regarding the qualifying offer, but if I know my hoops, I'm figuring it is in the $11-$12M range.
San Antonio Spurs' SF Richard Jefferson opted out of his contract today (doing the Spurs a HUGE favor in the process). The Spurs were deadlocked by Jefferson's contract, which paid him $15M next season. He knows his best chance to win is playing 3rd wheel on the right team and making closer to $10M instead of what he had been making the past three seasons; he had never been worth it, as he is still very much one-dimensional and coming up on 30, that's not worth anything more than $10M. The Spurs may still keep him, as RC Buford is the best GM in the NBA hands down -- he'll either find a way to make Jefferson work, or allow Jefferson to walk and then use the cap space to lure in a player that no one saw going to the Spurs -- which is the way the Spurs seem to always get it done. Jefferson could end up anywhere from Chicago, Miami, Charlotte, back in New Jersey or even Memphis (if Gay leaves).
I have always felt that Joe Johnson would remain in Atlanta. He met with the team today. I believe all talk regarding him going to this team or that team is leverage created by his camp to cause the Hawks to bid against exactly no one for the rights to sign Johnson. He's clearly not a max player (strictly a scorer and doesn't even do THAT when it matters, plays no defense, doesn't set anyone up and only gets incidental rebounds -- slimmer Glenn "Black Hole" Robinson) and even the dumbest GMs and those in the worst situations (Toronto, Golden State, Indiana) wouldn't offer Johnson the max contract. He's not a splash anywhere. The Hawks fans may have turned on him, and it would be his own making, but the only place he's getting a max contract is in Atlanta. The only way he teams with the likes of James or Wade is to be a $10M-$12M guy and STILL be the 3rd option. A lineup of Wade, James and Johnson in Miami is not a winner. Nor is Rose, James, Noah and the Brothers Johnson in Chicago. Once the first domino falls, expect Johnson to quickly stay put in Atlanta and accept that he will be 33 when he comes up for his final contract and eventually have to go through this "take a pay cut and play on a contender" thing once again. Atlanta is about to fall back to mediocrity for a couple of years and by the time Johnson is 33, he will either tire of losing or be nowhere near being in position to use leverage for anything more than the market holds for him in 2015.
I think Boozer either remains in Utah or goes to Miami in some scenario with just Wade or another $12M+ guy. But the Heat won't be landing two max players.
I don't think the Nets are going to be as wild spending as some people think. Prokhorov has made it clear that he wants to win, but using the successful business model (i.e. wise investing, building piece by piece ala Sam Presti in Oklahoma City and not always making the sexy splash all at once). The Nets may very well stand pat and see what happens in February when they can be in the running to acquire Chris Paul AND/OR Carmelo Anthony.
In all actuality, the team with the best chances to sign the headline players is the Knicks. They are the only team that can truly sign two max contracts and still have six other players on the roster before signing draft picks (or trading them for another player), using their full mid-level exception and the vet minimum as they did with Chris Duhon two years ago. I do not know where all the talk about counting the Knicks out came from, and while our owner is a certified dolt who is clueless about sports, he merely signs off on what GM Donnie Walsh does. Long gone are the days of him mandating signings (commanding the best President the Knicks have ever known in Dave Checketts -- to sign Allan Houston to that dreaded 6 year/$99M contract in 2000) and trades (again, forcing Checketts to trade Oakley to Toronto for Camby in 1998 and trading Pat Ewing to Seattle in 2000), while basically making sure otherwise decent GM (yes, I'm saying this, because a lot of his moves weren't of his own making, but yet again, DOLAN'S) Scott Layden was the fall guy once the Knicks plummeted by forcing him to shed Latrell Sprewell in 2003. Layden was fired soon after and Knicks fans were forced to sit and watch Sprewell nearly make the NBA Finals in 2004 with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dolan trusts Walsh and the Knicks are in the driver's seat in several regards:
1. They have exact cap space (as of June 30, 2010) to sign "2.06" max contracts. That is, roughly $37-$40M (depending upon escalators in certain players' contracts and the team exercising David Lee's BIRD RIGHTS -- something else KNOW-NOTHINGS on message boards fail to realize the Knicks did to protect themselves coming into this season, knowing that Lee was part of their future plans along with whoever they signed.
2. Contrary to what people who only watched highlights of Knicks games claim, the team has four very good young players to build around. David Lee being the oldest player on the team (who matters) at only 27, along with league-best shooter SF Danilo Gallinari, young PG Toney Douglas who came on late in the season while finally garnering playing time of note and steady SG/SF Wilson Chandler.
3. The Knicks can sign James and/or Bosh OR Wade OR Stoudemire outright. That would give the team 7 players under contract (before discussing PF Sergio Rodriguez's option). C Eddy Curry wisely (for himself, anyway) exercised his player option for next season, which gives the Knicks flexibility for both now, or February or even next June.
4. If the Knicks are working one of the plans that was widely circulated -- that they are trying to construct a deal that involves a team taking Curry in exchange for a sign and trade, along with the rights to the Rockets' 1st round draft pick in 2011, thus freeing up nearly $12M MORE in cap space that could afford the Knicks the opportunity to make a run at free-agents-to-be in 2011, Carmelo Anthony (who the Nuggets don't want to lose for literally nothing) and Chris Paul (who the Hornets secretly would rather move and play Collison at a huge fraction in salary and just as productive -- as Shinn tries to sell the team once again), then things would be even more amenable for Walsh. This is never reported with all the redundant "Wade: I want to remain in Miami", "Bosh: I don't know nothin' about nothin'" and James' playing coy and acting like he wants to win more than he wants to be a billionaire brand like his mentor Jay-Z, but this is a VERY REAL scenario that teams are talking to the Knicks about.
5. Look for the Knicks, who were criticized for taking two identical players in the 2010 NBA Draft to package one or both along with another player who they will make a qualifying offer (Rodriguez, Harrington or Duhon) to acquire another $6M-$8M in cap space to add along with the full mid-level exception to potentially sign a player such as Ray Allen or Rudy Gay (at about $12-$13M per).
Why none of this is ever reported, and why ESPN and the other outlets willfully and ERRONEOUSLY reported that the Bulls and Heat have cap room to sign two max players is beyond me, but this is where we stand as I wrap this up 30 minutes before teams and players are free to begin negotiations. Now it is time to watch the ESPN crawl at the bottom of the screen and check our BlackBerries and iPhones incessantly for the next few weeks.
M.D. Wright
6.30.10
The much discussed 2010 NBA Free Agent class is nearly in session. Teams can begin officially negotiating contracts with unrestricted free agents, and some players will officially become restricted free agents (able to opt out of their deals, exercise player options and teams can void contracts if they have options on a player) at 12:01 AM, EDT on July 1.
With all the talk about where LeBron James will go (Cleveland is 99.999% not going to be the locale) along with Dwyane Wade (if anywhere at all), Chris Bosh and a host of other players, the time is fitting to put the official stamp on the entire magilla right here and right now.
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First of all, here is what I wrote back on May 23, 2010:
I get asked daily "Mike, where do you think so and so is going after the season???" Hey, I'm not in those guys' heads. I dunno. People think "going back home" is automatically atop a guy's list of priorities when considering signing with a different team. It rarely is, in reality -- going back to familiar surroundings usually means more trouble than success; as guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and others have realized. So to propose with authority that I know where someone is going to sign is ludicrous. I can only guess, based off factors such as teams' salary cap space, existing rosters/teams' needs, who is truly a "max player" (there are only 7 or 8 in the NBA in 2010 -- and that's being generous) and how championship-ready a team is. Some teams run their franchises as a business. Others are in it SOLELY focused on winning 'chips -- and money comes as a result.
With that said, here is the list:
(Again, note that with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, there is contract-specific language and there are different types of Free Agents)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Ray Allen, Boston
Emanuel Ginobili, San Antonio
Marcus Camby, Portland
Tracy McGracy, New York
Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland
Brad Miller, Chicago
Jermaine O'Neal, Miami
Mike Miller, Washington
Richard Hamilton, Detroit
There are some intriguing names on this list. None of them are superstars (the one or two who once were are DONE), but they can be effective players on new teams. A few will have to take massive pay-cut (McGrady, Allen, BOTH O'Neals, for instance) just to be able to crack a roster on a good team, because most of the contenders are pressed against the cap, well over the cap, aren't necessarily looking for another superstar (and obviously unable to afford one), so thus will be using their mid-level exceptions (and any other exception the NBA grants them) to sign players.
Speaking of exceptions, the number of lackwit buffoons on message boards, Facebook, team pages running around with theories about where certain players "definitely won't be going" astounds me and sometimes makes me chuckle. I see and hear anti-Knick hatred all the time. Fans who hated the Knicks in the 90s took delight in watching the Knicks struggle like a dyslexic reading Latin, but one of my favourite jabs is "the Knicks only have 3 players under contract for next season" (we have 6, and another has a player option -- Eddy Curry, who I HOPE doesn't use it ha), and "how can the Knicks sign LeBron, Wade or Bosh AND the 5 other spots that need to be filled?"
Look, there are a dozen different salary cap exceptions in the NBA. Most hacks only know about the Bird exceptions and the mid-level exceptions. But those are elementary both in intent and usage. Teams also have what is called a MINIMUM SALARY EXCEPTION -- which enables a team to sign as many players at the NBA League Minimum salary, guaranteed, for up to two years each -- as the team sees fit in order to fill their roster. In all honesty, in a scenario where the Knicks were to land two of the players they'd like and filling their roster, they can easily do this. #shotsfired at people who continue to think "there is no way LeBron is leaving Cleveland". Don't be so sure, the Knicks' stock hit the NYSE (as "MSG") last fall, and James would have the ability to buy stock in the team if he saw fit. Do we really want to count the number of benefits that playing in New York offers a player of his calibre -- a number which far exceeds any other city? INCLUDING Los Angeles?
Back to the column.
***MAX PLAYERS (IN MY OPINION):
LeBron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Pau Gasol
Carmelo Anthony
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Paul (when healthy)
* Dwight Howard
* - Denotes PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-POST GAME
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AS FOR PENDING FREE AGENTS --
I'm going to tackle each one of these players' attributes and surmise where I believe their options are in terms of a potential new team.
Joe Johnson.
You know me, I'm a blunt, straight-forward and honest guy. This dude is overrated. I heard people say for years "he's so underrated!" How so? He played for a bum team for years until Mike Woodson brought them to playoff level in 2008. Putting up big (hollow) numbers on bad teams isn't impressive to me. Especially when you don't get near the number of rebounds that you should, nor assists, and your defense is virtually non-existent.
Don't get me wrong, he can score and he shoots a decent percentage. But that just makes him Glenn Robinson Lite, not a MAX PLAYER. And what's more, his disappearance in the past two seasons' playoffs should be enough of a warning to teams who still had an idea that Johnson was a max-level player. He doesn't have the heart, complete skill set, the killer instinct, nor the explosive ability to change a game. Max players MUST have two of those four attributes to warrant a maximum contract, in my opinion. Johnson is a good complimentary piece, or he can dupe the Hawks into an Allan Houston move (getting the team to bid against itself, when no one else was offering near the contract that was eventually awarded). He isn't a guy you build around, but he's a good 2nd or 3rd option with the right mix of players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Atlanta, New Jersey, Miami, Washington.
Ray Allen.
Old Man Allen. The ex-Husky from UConn. He gets respect from me (although he lost some of it for a while there due to his verbal jabs/hating lobbed at Kobe a few years back when he was with Seattle), but he will be 35 in two months. And he was making $20M this season. That's not going to happen again, obviously. Two big questions arise with Allen, ESPECIALLY if the Celtics do not win the 2010 NBA Finals -- 1) Does he even want to continue playing? If so, for how long? and 2) How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? He may have to take a 40% cut down to $12M or even about a roughly 2/3 cut to accept the veteran's minimum and either remain in Boston and squeeze one more year out there, or play nomad and hitch his wagon to the Lakers or wherever LeBron James lands.
His situation is actually more alluring to me than most of the so-called "Top Tier" free agents, because he can still stroke it and is a glue guy who you can depend on every night to give you his best. I just do not see anyone paying him more than $10M-$12M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Any contender -- seriously (Boston, Cleveland -- should James remain, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas and non-contenders such as Chicago and New York).
Emanuel Ginobili.
I just don't see the Spurs parting with him under any circumstances. Although Richard Jefferson's contract was a bad move ($14.2M) by RC Buford and Gregg Popovich, the Spurs do still maintain enough flexibility to retain Ginobili. I honestly cannot see him playing elsewhere and the aforementioned front office tandem always knows how to work the cap and makes smart personnel moves.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: San Antonio.
Marcus Camby.
Interesting and intriguing. The guy was brittle when he was with the Knicks, but at the same time, his production here is what made him somewhat coveted in the 6 or 7 years since he was moved to Denver. I just have concerns about his age now. He is 36. However, he has been healthy the past 2-3 seasons and contributed mightily. Maybe all that time he sat over the years makes him more like 32, 33 than 36 ha?
We'll see, but I think Portland may keep him for a year or two, unless he really thinks he is worth more than the $7.6M he received last year -- just a shade over the mid-level exception. Could he return to New York? Who knows. The fans still love him here.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Portland, Detroit, Toronto, Charlotte.
Tracy McGrady.
The Knicks only traded for him in order to secure his expiring contract of $23M. He was easily the highest paid player in the NBA last season, which is embarrassing. Yes, he's been injured, but even at 100% health and 5 years ago McGrady wasn't worth that much money. However, the Knicks are glad he's coming off THEIR books. That frees up such cap space that the Knicks can sign two maximum level players. Thanks Tracy.
As to where he goes? It's tough to call. That balky knee of his flared up after just one (very good game, BTW) with the Knicks after the trade. He was hobbled and icing his knees like 1998's Patrick Ewing after that. Hard to imagine anyone wants him for anything more than the veteran's minimum or the MLE -- and even then, it would have to be a contender. None of the contender really needs someone of McGrady's ilk unless he is HEALTHY. And there is no guarantee that will be, after 5 straight seasons of various nicks and bumps, and trips on the injured list.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New York (VM), Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio, Oklahoma City.
Shaquille O'Neal.
Hard to say what he will do. He says he still wants to play (and claims he has 3-4 good years left?)
................
Anyway, his contract expired at the $20M annually he received when he initially went to Miami for 5 years, $100M. Everyone knows he's not getting that, and he's finally come back to earth long enough to realize he's not a #1 guy or even a #2 anymore. But if he is willing to subjugate himself into a proper role with the right team, he might be able to ride another team's coattails to another ring. But it won't be at $20M per. Nor $10M (unless Prokhorov decides to get crazy with the spending, and all indications are that he WON'T).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Jersey (Shaq is originally from Newark and could be a good backup), Orlando (irony on two levels, although it is only a funny possible storyline as the Magic are woefully over the cap due to the horrendous contracts of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter), San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City.
Brad Miller.
He doesn't have much left in the tank. When big men hit 33, 34, they really slide QUICKLY when it comes to athleticism. Miller, his age compounded by his past injuries looks the part. He doesn't give the Bulls much, as they would prefer to run. He's a better halfcourt player than anything else. Would be a good fit on a younger team such as Philadelphia or maybe Atlanta. And certainly not at $12.2M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Golden State, Philadelphia, Atlanta.
Jermaine O'Neal.
He's done. I always thought he was slightly overrated even at his apex. He's nearing the nadir of his career (I'm not entertaining the injury excuses anymore at this point) and with the astronomical contract he had before, there's no way he's getting more than the mid-level exception to maybe help the Rockets or Grizzlies. The Heat need his cap space to sign a couple of big name players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Houston, Memphis.
Mike Miller.
Mike Miller is a nice player, shoots well, sometimes plays defense and won't KILL you, causing you to lose games -- but he won't win them, either. He's just a nice addition to the right team. Indications are he's staying put, but it's hard to see how he's going to warrant a raise. He's making $10M at this point and the Bullets Wizards value the near-$30M in cap space they'll have should the front office decide not to pick up the $12M option on Josh Howard. Very interesting scenario in Washington.
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Washington, Houston, Miami, Boston.
Richard Hamilton.
Pretty much a one-trick pony at this point in his career -- definitely heading toward the downside. He was never strong enough to create his own shot consistently and at 32, obviously has lost a step. But the Pistons have a glut in their backcourt and with Ben Gordon tied up for 4 more years and $11M per, Hamilton is likely the odd man out. There's not a huge market for him. He's likely going to be one of those guys whose destination will be determined by what the Top Tier players decide to do, as he's gone from a Second Tier guy to a Third Tier guy in the past two seasons.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, Los Angeles (both teams).
There are guys with Player Options/Early Termination Options for 2010-2011, and can opt out this summer (2010) as well:
Yao Ming, Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire, Phoenix.
LeBron James, Cleveland.
Dwyane Wade, Miami.
Chris Bosh, Toronto.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas.
Josh Howard, Washington.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee.
Tyson Chandler, Charlotte.
A lot of room for hit-or-miss signings with these guys. James, Wade and Nowitzki are sure things. You know what you are going to get with them. Bosh, depending on the scenario, you do not know. Stoudemire can put up offensive numbers at times, but he doesn't play defense nor rebound as well as his height and athleticism would suggest. Chandler MUST be paired with a good-to-great point guard to even be effective, Josh Howard can't stay healthy and poor Michael Redd might just be done with those Patrick Ewing knees of his. Same with Yao and his Bill Walton feet.
Yao Ming.
You'd think Houston would be trying to hang onto him, broken foot and all -- injury history as a whole and all. I can't see them moving him, especially since they did nothing to fill the void (with the hopes he will return in 2010-2011; quite frankly he needed the rest after playing basketball year round on three continents for 8 straight years). I'm going to put this down as a lead-pipe lock pick that he's not moving. The Rockets even still have the cap space to re-sign him. What will be interesting is how Houston deals with the need to re-sign Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, both of whom are up (Scola being unrestricted, Hayes with a team-option).
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire.
I have seen him drop big numbers. He did so tonight (May 23, 2010). But his defensive deficiencies and lack of consistent rebounding preclude him from becoming a max player in my opinion. Nevertheless, he is 6'10", 240, still runs like a gazelle and is in the prime of his career, 7 years into the NBA and at age 28. Someone will make a run at him, although he is a 1b. type player. Not QUITE a max player, but just a hair under. Not a guy who would flourish without a Top 5 point guard. Will also be interesting to see how he works outside of a pick and roll system. However, someone will make a huge offer, and Stoudemire has the right of first refusal, as he has a player option to return at $17.7M next year in Phoenix.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Phoenix, Chicago, Miami, Wherever LeBron James goes.
LeBron James.
Listen, I've written extensively about this -- there is a nice summation on my Facebook page (for those who are friends with me on there), so I won't get into the whole deal again. Let's just break down the realities and diffuse all the armchair psychiatrist/wannabe GM talk.
1. No one knows what he is thinking, not World Wide Wes, not Jay-Z, not the city of Cleveland nor his most ardent fans, NOR DO YOU.
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Now that we have that out of the way.
1. Playing and excelling/winning in New York trumps everything. It trumps anything Chicago can possibly offer, anything Los Angeles can offer, as well as Washington, Miami and any other team whose fans have concocted baseless reasons for believing James is going to sign there. For all we know he has no intention to leave Cleveland whatsoever, but in lieu of recent events, that looks scant at best.
2. The Cavaliers as presently constructed were overrated from the get-go. Throwing Shaq onto the team set them back two steps from the three steps forward they had made last year. 2007 -- Finals appearance, 2008 -- lose to Boston, 2009 -- high expectations, reach conference finals and lose to Orlando, 2010, even HIGHER expectations and lose in the 2nd round to Boston once again. Mo Williams is a 3rd tier player getting 2nd tier player recognition (All-Star???) and top tier player expectation from Cavalier fans. Delonte West is a bona fide headcase, as "recent events" further prove. Shaq was done 3 years ago. Zydrunas Ilgaukas has been a nice story of resiliency, but expecting this much from a 37-year old is absurd. The rest of their players are (BAD) role players or flop artists.
SN: Ever notice that when a writer is trying to inflate a team's success in a given season, but they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs, they call it "Conference Semifinals" (which it technically is, but it is amazing the effect words have on their readers), but when piling on a team, it is called "2nd Round" to give an illusion that they did not accomplish much?
3. Despite all the reports, all the rumors, and assessing cap situations of all teams -- the only VIABLE (logic, hometown alliances aside) options where 3 other teams do not need to get involved are the New Jersey Nets and the New York Knicks. There have been reports that Chris Bosh of Toronto has a 5-team list that basically patterns itself after the teams that LeBron James is most likely to chose should he leave Cleveland at all. To hitch your future to the uncertainty of another is folly, but understandable in this case.
Dallas is $30M over the cap BEFORE they ship away a player or two in a trade just to be able to RE-SIGN DIRK NOWITZKI -- never mind even thinking about LeBron James.
Chicago would need to send Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich and hope Toronto accepts them as they're both grossly overpaid (but whose salaries would match Bosh's in a scenario where Bosh signed with Toronto for the maximum 6 years, $125M, or on the average about $21M annually) just to have the CHANCE to attempt to sign James.
Washington has the cap space, but there is uncertainty from the very top (The Pollin Family's sale of the team to Ted Leonsis will be complete in the next two weeks -- no guarantees that Grunfeld and Saunders will be there come November and no one knows whether Gilbert Arenas and his massive contract will be there either), even with the widely-understood idea that the Wizards are going to select John Wall out of Kentucky with their #1 Overall Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.
Meanwhile, Miami, while maneuvering around to generate the cap space must attempt to persuade Wade to remain, before entertaining the internet-generated rumor that James would join Wade in Miami because they are "best friends" (not because the salary cap precludes this, though, huh? Or more importantly, owner Mickey Arison is loathe to pay the luxury tax?) Throw it out. The Heat are a bigger reach than both NY area teams combined.
New Jersey has the cap space, and a couple of young pieces, but in my opinion on PAPER they are a long shot. I just don't know what new Russian owner Mike Prokhorov has up his sleeve. He sounds (from listening to him speak about his new toy, the Nets) like he knows how to work the NBA system. Besides, you don't become worth $14B without knowing how to manage money and make shrewd deals and acquisitions. If you have followed Mike closely, you hear him emphasize his desire to make the Nets a GLOBAL brand -- that most NBA owners think locally/Mom & Pop, while he's looking to break down global barriers. What better way than to have the soon-to-be (sharing the spotlight with The Snake, no homo, until 2014) solo face of the NBA in James, Yi Jianlian and possibly Dirk Nowitzki to cater to three distinct fan bases, here in the US, Germany and parts of Europe and southeast Asia? Bears watching -- I really think the Nets will be active in free agency. And they're right in my backyard, so I have eyes and ears on it daily.
New York has the cap space, the amenities and fringe benefits that no other team's city can offer. The Knicks' players are currently no worse without LeBron currently, than the current Cavaliers team will be should James leave. In fact, the Knicks can lure the "other" superstar that the Cavs have never been able to do in Cleveland. They can also sign one of the aforementioned players coming off max deals who would be willing to play for an exception or two just to have the chance to play alongside James and superstar to be named later, as they'd become the best team in the Eastern Conference by default. Again, bears watching. I pass by both MSG and the NBA HQ every day that I am in the city. I will most likely be standing outside one or the other when the signing occurs. If anything breaks, you'll hear it here ha.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: All of the above and throw in both Los Angeles teams should a three-team deal be worked out in either circumstance.
Dwyane Wade.
Simple. Surround him with another star and better complimentary players or wave goodbye. No way he's going to Chicago (this is where that "he can come home" BS needs to just go away, along with the Nancy Boys who think like this. There's too much drama there off the court and Rose is a Wade clone. That is not going to work.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Miami, New York.
Chris Bosh.
He has hitched his wagon to LeBron James without saying as much in so many words. James' signing will precipitate a domino effect, so the best bet when predicting Bosh's destination is to just follow James'. He's not returning to Toronto, and will most likely be accommodated by the team with a sign-and-trade deal (netting Bosh an extra year of making $2M more annually than signing outright with another team for five years).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Wherever LeBron James goes.
Dirk Nowitzki.
I have heard questions even before Dirk announced that he will opt out of his contract after all. I predicted he would, but not because of Dallas' playoff woes or to join James or Wade. The NBA has an obscure rule called the "Over-36" clause. Dirk will be 32 in June. Whereas the other major free agents are younger than 30, or are at least 6 years younger than their 36th birthday, Nowitzki is not. Why is this important, you ask? It isn't a MAJOR deal unless he were to sign elsewhere. Otherwise, the difference in getting a further extension on his current contract would net him virtually the same monies as if he signed a brand new contract with Dallas -- but he does have the option to sign for a 5th year with the team with that maximum annual salary that he will receive. If he were to sign outright with New Jersey, for instance, he could only receive a four-year deal with maximum salary. It is almost certain that he will remain in Dallas unless owner Mark Cuban is made an offer he cannot refuse.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Dallas, New Jersey, Miami.
Josh Howard.
So many missteps, so many times putting his foot in his mouth -- and on top of that, he hasn't been fully healthy in two seasons. He's only 30, but it is hard to imagine he will garner more than $10-$12M on the open market -- which is what he's currently making -- and most likely not in Washington, because he is not that type of impact player. I've been wrong before, but I just have a feeling he's heading back to the Western Conference.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Orleans, Golden State, Sacramento.
Michael Redd.
I wish son the best, but I haven't seen more than a small handful of guys come back from multiple knee injuries with little to no cartilage and be anything more than a fringe player at best.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Decent backup on the Top 4 at the mid-level.
Tyson Chandler.
Tough market for him. He's a big man, but limited skills. And after 9 seasons, he is what he is. He tries hard, but without even an above average point guard (neither Augustin [yet] nor Felton [will never be] is such) he cannot excel. Chris Paul made him look great, but he's been average since leaving New Orleans -- even when he is healthy. He is still just 27, so the Bobcats may keep him, as their main objective is to land a legitimate scorer on the wing who has a "closer" mentality. Right now, the only player available for the Cats to stand any realistic chance of landing (if he opts out) and meets that role is Jamal Crawford.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Charlotte.
More Opt-Out Guys:
Carlos Boozer, Utah
Chris Paul, New Orleans
I separate these two with good reason -- their futures have so many caveats tied to them that it is fathomable for them to do anything from remain with their current teams or go to one of a number of different teams. STAY TUNED. Boozer is a semi-impactful player, but Chris Paul is one of the max players who can shift a team's level of success just by stepping on the court.
And again, they may not even opt out, so it's not important to address them anymore than noting they are ELIGIBLE to opt out this summer as well as the others above.
Other free agents for 2010:
Ben Wallace, Detroit.
Larry Hughes, Charlotte.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland.
Al Harrington, New York.
Darko Milicic, Minnesota.
Udonis Haslem, Miami.
Jamal Crawford, Atlanta.
Eddy Curry, New York.
Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers.
(There are others, just none worth noting).
Wallace isn't costing the Pistons anything, and no one else wants him at this point in his career. Larry Hughes is on the cheap also. A good backup/3rd player/spot starter. Ilgauskas and Varejao can both opt out of their contracts with Cleveland along with LeBron and that's potentially huge. Al Harrington definitely will not be back with the Knicks at his cost and disjointed/missing production. Milicic is heading back overseas. Haslem is a decent player. Maybe he returns to Miami? Orlando could use an enforcer next to Howard. Crawford will remain in his division, in my opinion. Curry (if he is smart) will protect himself by using his player option for 2010-2011. However, the Knicks will protect themselves by using his then to-be expiring contract as bait to offer a trade either after the initial free agency period or later in February (Denver, for Anthony?) Fish is a Laker or retiring.
NEW YORK KNICKS NEEDS AND PERSONAL PREFERENCES:
1. The Knicks need someone to patrol the paint on both ends. Curry, even at his best, can only do that offensively. And he may not be back, anyway. There will be some question about who will be signed alongside any max player(s) the Knicks sign, as they will only have minimum cap space (before exceptions) to sign the other 5 players who will not be under contract -- in order to reach the NBA requisite minimum roster number of 13.
*** It should be noted that draft picks do not necessarily count towards the cap number for each team.
2. A NEW COACH (but that's personal).
D'Antoni may not be back, especially if that becomes a bone of contention for James and/or Bosh and determining whether they decide to come to New York or not.
PERSONAL:
What I'd like to see is Toronto execute a sign-and-trade with Chris Bosh, offer him the max deal he wants (although he is much like Stoudemire as a 1b.) and New York signs David Lee to a $12-$14M deal, sending another player (Rodriguez, who will then become an unrestricted free agent after next season) and cash considerations to Toronto.
Sign Dwyane Wade OR LeBron James.
With remaining cap space offer deals to either Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton or another player at the MLE and draft wisely.
OR
Sign LeBron James, Rudy Gay, trade for Caron Butler and offer one of the aforementioned players at the MLE. Yes, if you've put 2+2 together with these names, it APPEARS "that's" what I'm implying, but I'm not on that hokey "fill a roster with guys from the same school" nonsense -- it's just highly convenient that certain players are in walk years and others are coming up on them next year and would be effective on the same team.
To go with young Toney Douglas, Will The Thrill Chandler and Young Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) that would be a tough core and the best in the Eastern Conference.
Too many ifs, in-turns, and only once so and so does this, that or the third -- type scenarios to do more than speculate at this point. However, I will have bi-weekly updates once the NBA Finals conclude and especially (as situations warrant) once the NBA Draft is complete. I am planning to be present at the Draft this year, while failing last year to secure tickets while standing on a line with Jayson Albert in front of Madison Square Garden for over an hour. Live reports from inside if I am able to get in this year.
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AS FOR NOW, about six weeks later on June 30, 2010, a great number of beneath-the-surface caveats have formed. It is time to turn off ESPN, CBSportsline and Yahoo and break out the abacus, accounting notebook and learn the NBA's collective bargaining agreement. Because if you listen to ESPN hacks like Chad Ford and CHRIS BROUSSARD, you'd think the NBA's CBA was non-existent. Some of these supposed deals cannot happen. Plain and simple.
Breaking news:
Small Forward Paul Pierce opts out of his contract with the Boston Celtics. Interesting of note for a few reasons 1) Pierce will be 33 upon the arrival of the 2010-2011 NBA season. The Over-36 Rule weighs heavily into contract negotiations regarding an extension, as Boston cannot offer him more than 3 years on a new deal. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement may also prove to be prohibitive for Pierce. 2) Opting out gives the Celtics flexibility to potentially re-sign Shooting Guard Ray Allen. 3) Doc Rivers, in his poor attempt at imitating Brett Favre and Phil Jackson, decides today he will return to coach Boston and 4) Pierce DOES stand to receive an all-important 4th year and potentially $96M from a team outside of Boston. Celtics' GM Danny Ainge realistically and openly admitted the possibility that Pierce could bolt to another team for such a deal. Pierce leaves $21.5M on the table for the 2010-2011 season by opting out of his current deal. There is no way Boston is giving him that much on any contract going forward, because he is not worth it anymore, and again, will be 33 in October. Furthermore, the best the Celtics will probably offer is 3 years and about $49M. Even in doing so, signing Ray Allen will certainly put the Celtics over the luxury tax threshold and be a tell-tale sign that the Celtics are gearing up for another season with the thought that they can coast through the season (again) and hope to get hot late, as all three of their leading scorers are a year older. Bears watching, especially if Pierce does indeed leave Boston under some currently unforeseen circumstance.
Dallas Mavericks' Power Forward Dirk Nowitzki opts out of his contract with the team, but is in the same situation as Pierce with the Over 36 rule and potentially using the leverage that the player option provides to get close to the same $21M salary from Dallas for four more years without giving up the $3-$4M that he would almost certainly be giving up if he were not to be given an extension from Dallas or leave for another team (and only receive four years instead of five). There is an outside shot that Nowitzki leaves Dallas, but only to line up with a player like Dwyane Wade. There isn't a situation where Dirk will team with LeBron James, so anyone mentioning this is wishing.
The New Jersey Nets cleared $3M in cap space on June 29 by waiving Yi Jianlian. It doesn't do much for their hopes, because they still do not have the cap space to sign the requisite two max-level players it will need in order to acquire LeBron James. Dwyane Wade was out of their reach to begin with, and a player like Amaré Stoudemire was making more than most of the actual Top Tier free agents, meaning his max-contract dollar amount would be higher (he can make up to 105% more annually on a new deal, as can the others), so the prospect of signing any of those players in tandem is out. The Nets would have to trade one of the players they are building around to have an outside shot of signing two max-level players and hoping to be able to use a couple of league exceptions to lure another guy who they would be able to pay about $8-$9M annually to -- or stand pat and build wisely as Mike Prokhorov stated they would upon acquiring the team from Bruce (Rat)ner.
I have never understood the hype about the Bulls. Yes, Derrick Rose is a fine player who only stands to be great (his ceiling is higher than Rajon Rondo's and Deron Williams is already all that he will ever be, believe it or not), but there is no way the Bulls are getting LeBron James. The reason? They STILL do not have the cap room to sign two max players, especially not the ones they have been "rumored" to be after. I do not know how message board buffoonery ends up as front page fodder on ESPN or even mentioned over the airwaves as fact, but this has never been true. Had they not pulled a panic move and given away one of their main players (Kirk Hinrich $9M) and their 1st Round Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, Kevin Seraphim, they would barely be able to afford a max contract and enough money to add to the full mid-level exception to POSSIBLY pay another player $10M annually. That $10M certainly isn't going to be enough to lure any of the top names, and certainly not Chris Bosh, who is reportedly following LeBron James like a little brother with regards to signing destinations. Not when these guys were making 30%-40% more on their previous contracts. Winning is a great salve, but I doubt anyone (despite their declarations to the contrary) is SOLELY about winning and has a total disregard to finances, when they're looking at taking a nearly 50% pay cut (factor in the escalation in salary due to inflation written into the CBA) just for the PROSPECT of winning with a team that isn't more than a paper threat to uproot both of the current conference champions. A team of James, Rose, Noah and Bosh looks promising, but the Bulls would have a very thin bench, with currently only six players guaranteed signed through next season (including Noah and Rose). Yes, there are exceptions galore, and all teams under the cap can spend and bring in players who would otherwise set them over the spending limit as long as they are under the cap BEFORE the transaction takes place, but the Bulls' best options are to focus on acquiring a shooting guard (Joe Johnson) and a solid, albeit not great -- big man (Stoudemire). It is the most they can do unless they are able to find a taker for Luol Deng's embarrassing contract (Bryan Colangelo are you listening?)
Don't understand the Miami hype either. Bosh isn't one to spew lip service, and he echoes my sentiments (regarding the Wade, James, Bosh, player to be named later talks that have surfaced from NBA Trade Machine hacks and rabid Heat fans) "I don't see how it can happen". And I agree. People widely reported the Heat have $40M in cap space. They do not. The only way they can do so is if Wade opts out of his contract. By doing so, they will initially have space, but obviously the intent is to keep Wade and add two pieces for a "super team". And re-signing Wade to a new deal, with the 105% increase makes it prohibitive for the Heat to sign any more than one max player. Someone would have to be willing to take a contract in the range of $10-$12M in order for it to work the way the imbeciles on the sports message boards and talk radio claim they have "inside knowledge" about. The Heat have basically declined every team option and traded, waived and bought out everyone on their roster. They cannot re-sign PF Udonis Haslem and acquire any more than one of these guys and no GM is going to be willing to take SF Michael Beasley nor PG Mario Chalmers without the Heat mortgaging their future by giving up a 1st Round Pick or two (this is my insinuation regarding a possible sign and trade for Bosh or Nowitzki). If you're counting at home, that would leave the Heat with 5 contract players, no cap space for a bench, no 1st round picks in 2011 and/or possibly 2012 and still no lock to even make the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are better off (if Wade stays) signing Carlos Boozer for a little less than the max and HOPING that is enough to lure James to Ocean Blvd. They could then use their mid level exception to bring in the shooter they will desperately need as they basically gave away Daequan Cook to the Oklahoma City Thunder along with their 18th pick in the 1st round of the 2010 NBA Draft. The nonsense needs to die. The Heat made a last ditch effort to get in position to be able to TALK, but they're not any closer to signing the players people seem to think they will.
SF Rudy Gay was given a qualifying offer from the Memphis Grizzlies. This is big, because it sets the market for Gay. Teams know how much they are going to have to offer to lure him from Memphis and any talks about lining him up with wherever Wade or James goes has to be taken into consideration with the offer sheet granted by Memphis. No news yet regarding the qualifying offer, but if I know my hoops, I'm figuring it is in the $11-$12M range.
San Antonio Spurs' SF Richard Jefferson opted out of his contract today (doing the Spurs a HUGE favor in the process). The Spurs were deadlocked by Jefferson's contract, which paid him $15M next season. He knows his best chance to win is playing 3rd wheel on the right team and making closer to $10M instead of what he had been making the past three seasons; he had never been worth it, as he is still very much one-dimensional and coming up on 30, that's not worth anything more than $10M. The Spurs may still keep him, as RC Buford is the best GM in the NBA hands down -- he'll either find a way to make Jefferson work, or allow Jefferson to walk and then use the cap space to lure in a player that no one saw going to the Spurs -- which is the way the Spurs seem to always get it done. Jefferson could end up anywhere from Chicago, Miami, Charlotte, back in New Jersey or even Memphis (if Gay leaves).
I have always felt that Joe Johnson would remain in Atlanta. He met with the team today. I believe all talk regarding him going to this team or that team is leverage created by his camp to cause the Hawks to bid against exactly no one for the rights to sign Johnson. He's clearly not a max player (strictly a scorer and doesn't even do THAT when it matters, plays no defense, doesn't set anyone up and only gets incidental rebounds -- slimmer Glenn "Black Hole" Robinson) and even the dumbest GMs and those in the worst situations (Toronto, Golden State, Indiana) wouldn't offer Johnson the max contract. He's not a splash anywhere. The Hawks fans may have turned on him, and it would be his own making, but the only place he's getting a max contract is in Atlanta. The only way he teams with the likes of James or Wade is to be a $10M-$12M guy and STILL be the 3rd option. A lineup of Wade, James and Johnson in Miami is not a winner. Nor is Rose, James, Noah and the Brothers Johnson in Chicago. Once the first domino falls, expect Johnson to quickly stay put in Atlanta and accept that he will be 33 when he comes up for his final contract and eventually have to go through this "take a pay cut and play on a contender" thing once again. Atlanta is about to fall back to mediocrity for a couple of years and by the time Johnson is 33, he will either tire of losing or be nowhere near being in position to use leverage for anything more than the market holds for him in 2015.
I think Boozer either remains in Utah or goes to Miami in some scenario with just Wade or another $12M+ guy. But the Heat won't be landing two max players.
I don't think the Nets are going to be as wild spending as some people think. Prokhorov has made it clear that he wants to win, but using the successful business model (i.e. wise investing, building piece by piece ala Sam Presti in Oklahoma City and not always making the sexy splash all at once). The Nets may very well stand pat and see what happens in February when they can be in the running to acquire Chris Paul AND/OR Carmelo Anthony.
In all actuality, the team with the best chances to sign the headline players is the Knicks. They are the only team that can truly sign two max contracts and still have six other players on the roster before signing draft picks (or trading them for another player), using their full mid-level exception and the vet minimum as they did with Chris Duhon two years ago. I do not know where all the talk about counting the Knicks out came from, and while our owner is a certified dolt who is clueless about sports, he merely signs off on what GM Donnie Walsh does. Long gone are the days of him mandating signings (commanding the best President the Knicks have ever known in Dave Checketts -- to sign Allan Houston to that dreaded 6 year/$99M contract in 2000) and trades (again, forcing Checketts to trade Oakley to Toronto for Camby in 1998 and trading Pat Ewing to Seattle in 2000), while basically making sure otherwise decent GM (yes, I'm saying this, because a lot of his moves weren't of his own making, but yet again, DOLAN'S) Scott Layden was the fall guy once the Knicks plummeted by forcing him to shed Latrell Sprewell in 2003. Layden was fired soon after and Knicks fans were forced to sit and watch Sprewell nearly make the NBA Finals in 2004 with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Dolan trusts Walsh and the Knicks are in the driver's seat in several regards:
1. They have exact cap space (as of June 30, 2010) to sign "2.06" max contracts. That is, roughly $37-$40M (depending upon escalators in certain players' contracts and the team exercising David Lee's BIRD RIGHTS -- something else KNOW-NOTHINGS on message boards fail to realize the Knicks did to protect themselves coming into this season, knowing that Lee was part of their future plans along with whoever they signed.
2. Contrary to what people who only watched highlights of Knicks games claim, the team has four very good young players to build around. David Lee being the oldest player on the team (who matters) at only 27, along with league-best shooter SF Danilo Gallinari, young PG Toney Douglas who came on late in the season while finally garnering playing time of note and steady SG/SF Wilson Chandler.
3. The Knicks can sign James and/or Bosh OR Wade OR Stoudemire outright. That would give the team 7 players under contract (before discussing PF Sergio Rodriguez's option). C Eddy Curry wisely (for himself, anyway) exercised his player option for next season, which gives the Knicks flexibility for both now, or February or even next June.
4. If the Knicks are working one of the plans that was widely circulated -- that they are trying to construct a deal that involves a team taking Curry in exchange for a sign and trade, along with the rights to the Rockets' 1st round draft pick in 2011, thus freeing up nearly $12M MORE in cap space that could afford the Knicks the opportunity to make a run at free-agents-to-be in 2011, Carmelo Anthony (who the Nuggets don't want to lose for literally nothing) and Chris Paul (who the Hornets secretly would rather move and play Collison at a huge fraction in salary and just as productive -- as Shinn tries to sell the team once again), then things would be even more amenable for Walsh. This is never reported with all the redundant "Wade: I want to remain in Miami", "Bosh: I don't know nothin' about nothin'" and James' playing coy and acting like he wants to win more than he wants to be a billionaire brand like his mentor Jay-Z, but this is a VERY REAL scenario that teams are talking to the Knicks about.
5. Look for the Knicks, who were criticized for taking two identical players in the 2010 NBA Draft to package one or both along with another player who they will make a qualifying offer (Rodriguez, Harrington or Duhon) to acquire another $6M-$8M in cap space to add along with the full mid-level exception to potentially sign a player such as Ray Allen or Rudy Gay (at about $12-$13M per).
Why none of this is ever reported, and why ESPN and the other outlets willfully and ERRONEOUSLY reported that the Bulls and Heat have cap room to sign two max players is beyond me, but this is where we stand as I wrap this up 30 minutes before teams and players are free to begin negotiations. Now it is time to watch the ESPN crawl at the bottom of the screen and check our BlackBerries and iPhones incessantly for the next few weeks.
Monday, May 24, 2010
2010 NBA Free Agent Crop: Personal Thoughts (Once And For All -- Until July 1, 2010)
2010 NBA Free Agent Crop: Personal Thoughts (Once And For All -- Until July 1, 2010)
M.D. Wright
5.23.10
I get asked daily "Mike, where do you think so and so is going after the season???" Hey, I'm not in those guys' heads. I dunno. People think "going back home" is automatically atop a guy's list of priorities when considering signing with a different team. It rarely is, in reality -- going back to familiar surroundings usually means more trouble than success; as guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and others have realized. So to propose with authority that I know where someone is going to sign is ludicrous. I can only guess, based off factors such as teams' salary cap space, existing rosters/teams' needs, who is truly a "max player" (there are only 7 or 8 in the NBA in 2010 -- and that's being generous) and how championship-ready a team is. Some teams run their franchises as a business. Others are in it SOLELY focused on winning 'chips -- and money comes as a result.
With that said, here is the list:
(Again, note that with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, there is contract-specific language and there are different types of Free Agents)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Ray Allen, Boston
Emanuel Ginobili, San Antonio
Marcus Camby, Portland
Tracy McGracy, New York
Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland
Brad Miller, Chicago
Jermaine O'Neal, Miami
Mike Miller, Washington
Richard Hamilton, Detroit
There are some intriguing names on this list. None of them are superstars (the one or two who once were are DONE), but they can be effective players on new teams. A few will have to take massive pay-cut (McGrady, Allen, BOTH O'Neals, for instance) just to be able to crack a roster on a good team, because most of the contenders are pressed against the cap, well over the cap, aren't necessarily looking for another superstar (and obviously unable to afford one), so thus will be using their mid-level exceptions (and any other exception the NBA grants them) to sign players.
Speaking of exceptions, the number of lackwit buffoons on message boards, Facebook, team pages running around with theories about where certain players "definitely won't be going" astounds me and sometimes makes me chuckle. I see and hear anti-Knick hatred all the time. Fans who hated the Knicks in the 90s took delight in watching the Knicks struggle like a dyslexic reading Latin, but one of my favourite jabs is "the Knicks only have 3 players under contract for next season" (we have 6, and another has a player option -- Eddy Curry, who I HOPE doesn't use it ha), and "how can the Knicks sign LeBron, Wade or Bosh AND the 5 other spots that need to be filled?"
Look, there are a dozen different salary cap exceptions in the NBA. Most hacks only know about the Bird exceptions and the mid-level exceptions. But those are elementary both in intent and usage. Teams also have what is called a MINIMUM SALARY EXCEPTION -- which enables a team to sign as many players at the NBA League Minimum salary, guaranteed, for up to two years each -- as the team sees fit in order to fill their roster. In all honesty, in a scenario where the Knicks were to land two of the players they'd like and filling their roster, they can easily do this. #shotsfired at people who continue to think "there is no way LeBron is leaving Cleveland". Don't be so sure, the Knicks' stock hit the NYSE (as "MSG") last fall, and James would have the ability to buy stock in the team if he saw fit. Do we really want to count the number of benefits that playing in New York offers a player of his calibre -- a number which far exceeds any other city? INCLUDING Los Angeles?
Back to the column.
***MAX PLAYERS (IN MY OPINION):
LeBron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Pau Gasol
Carmelo Anthony
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Paul (when healthy)
* Dwight Howard
* - Denotes PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-POST GAME
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AS FOR PENDING FREE AGENTS --
I'm going to tackle each one of these players' attributes and surmise where I believe their options are in terms of a potential new team.
Joe Johnson.
You know me, I'm a blunt, straight-forward and honest guy. This dude is overrated. I heard people say for years "he's so underrated!" How so? He played for a bum team for years until Mike Woodson brought them to playoff level in 2008. Putting up big (hollow) numbers on bad teams isn't impressive to me. Especially when you don't get near the number of rebounds that you should, nor assists, and your defense is virtually non-existent.
Don't get me wrong, he can score and he shoots a decent percentage. But that just makes him Glenn Robinson Lite, not a MAX PLAYER. And what's more, his disappearance in the past two seasons' playoffs should be enough of a warning to teams who still had an idea that Johnson was a max-level player. He doesn't have the heart, complete skill set, the killer instinct, nor the explosive ability to change a game. Max players MUST have two of those four attributes to warrant a maximum contract, in my opinion. Johnson is a good complimentary piece, or he can dupe the Hawks into an Allan Houston move (getting the team to bid against itself, when no one else was offering near the contract that was eventually awarded). He isn't a guy you build around, but he's a good 2nd or 3rd option with the right mix of players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Atlanta, New Jersey, Miami, Washington.
Ray Allen.
Old Man Allen. The ex-Husky from UConn. He gets respect from me (although he lost some of it for a while there due to his verbal jabs/hating lobbed at Kobe a few years back when he was with Seattle), but he will be 35 in two months. And he was making $20M this season. That's not going to happen again, obviously. Two big questions arise with Allen, ESPECIALLY if the Celtics do not win the 2010 NBA Finals -- 1) Does he even want to continue playing? If so, for how long? and 2) How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? He may have to take a 40% cut down to $12M or even about a roughly 2/3 cut to accept the veteran's minimum and either remain in Boston and squeeze one more year out there, or play nomad and hitch his wagon to the Lakers or wherever LeBron James lands.
His situation is actually more alluring to me than most of the so-called "Top Tier" free agents, because he can still stroke it and is a glue guy who you can depend on every night to give you his best. I just do not see anyone paying him more than $10M-$12M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Any contender -- seriously (Boston, Cleveland -- should James remain, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas and non-contenders such as Chicago and New York).
Emanuel Ginobili.
I just don't see the Spurs parting with him under any circumstances. Although Richard Jefferson's contract was a bad move ($14.2M) by RC Buford and Gregg Popovich, the Spurs do still maintain enough flexibility to retain Ginobili. I honestly cannot see him playing elsewhere and the aforementioned front office tandem always knows how to work the cap and makes smart personnel moves.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: San Antonio.
Marcus Camby.
Interesting and intriguing. The guy was brittle when he was with the Knicks, but at the same time, his production here is what made him somewhat coveted in the 6 or 7 years since he was moved to Denver. I just have concerns about his age now. He is 36. However, he has been healthy the past 2-3 seasons and contributed mightily. Maybe all that time he sat over the years makes him more like 32, 33 than 36 ha?
We'll see, but I think Portland may keep him for a year or two, unless he really thinks he is worth more than the $7.6M he received last year -- just a shade over the mid-level exception. Could he return to New York? Who knows. The fans still love him here.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Portland, Detroit, Toronto, Charlotte.
Tracy McGrady.
The Knicks only traded for him in order to secure his expiring contract of $23M. He was easily the highest paid player in the NBA last season, which is embarrassing. Yes, he's been injured, but even at 100% health and 5 years ago McGrady wasn't worth that much money. However, the Knicks are glad he's coming off THEIR books. That frees up such cap space that the Knicks can sign two maximum level players. Thanks Tracy.
As to where he goes? It's tough to call. That balky knee of his flared up after just one (very good game, BTW) with the Knicks after the trade. He was hobbled and icing his knees like 1998's Patrick Ewing after that. Hard to imagine anyone wants him for anything more than the veteran's minimum or the MLE -- and even then, it would have to be a contender. None of the contender really needs someone of McGrady's ilk unless he is HEALTHY. And there is no guarantee that will be, after 5 straight seasons of various nicks and bumps, and trips on the injured list.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New York (VM), Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio, Oklahoma City.
Shaquille O'Neal.
Hard to say what he will do. He says he still wants to play (and claims he has 3-4 good years left?)
................
Anyway, his contract expired at the $20M annually he received when he initially went to Miami for 5 years, $100M. Everyone knows he's not getting that, and he's finally come back to earth long enough to realize he's not a #1 guy or even a #2 anymore. But if he is willing to subjugate himself into a proper role with the right team, he might be able to ride another team's coattails to another ring. But it won't be at $20M per. Nor $10M (unless Prokhorov decides to get crazy with the spending, and all indications are that he WON'T).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Jersey (Shaq is originally from Newark and could be a good backup), Orlando (irony on two levels, although it is only a funny possible storyline as the Magic are woefully over the cap due to the horrendous contracts of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter), San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City.
Brad Miller.
He doesn't have much left in the tank. When big men hit 33, 34, they really slide QUICKLY when it comes to athleticism. Miller, his age compounded by his past injuries looks the part. He doesn't give the Bulls much, as they would prefer to run. He's a better halfcourt player than anything else. Would be a good fit on a younger team such as Philadelphia or maybe Atlanta. And certainly not at $12.2M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Golden State, Philadelphia, Atlanta.
Jermaine O'Neal.
He's done. I always thought he was slightly overrated even at his apex. He's nearing the nadir of his career (I'm not entertaining the injury excuses anymore at this point) and with the astronomical contract he had before, there's no way he's getting more than the mid-level exception to maybe help the Rockets or Grizzlies. The Heat need his cap space to sign a couple of big name players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Houston, Memphis.
Mike Miller.
Mike Miller is a nice player, shoots well, sometimes plays defense and won't KILL you, causing you to lose games -- but he won't win them, either. He's just a nice addition to the right team. Indications are he's staying put, but it's hard to see how he's going to warrant a raise. He's making $10M at this point and theBullets Wizards value the near-$30M in cap space they'll have should the front office decide not to pick up the $12M option on Josh Howard. Very interesting scenario in Washington.
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Washington, Houston, Miami, Boston.
Richard Hamilton.
Pretty much a one-trick pony at this point in his career -- definitely heading toward the downside. He was never strong enough to create his own shot consistently and at 32, obviously has lost a step. But the Pistons have a glut in their backcourt and with Ben Gordon tied up for 4 more years and $11M per, Hamilton is likely the odd man out. There's not a huge market for him. He's likely going to be one of those guys whose destination will be determined by what the Top Tier players decide to do, as he's gone from a Second Tier guy to a Third Tier guy in the past two seasons.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, Los Angeles (both teams).
There are guys with Player Options/Early Termination Options for 2010-2011, and can opt out this summer (2010) as well:
Yao Ming, Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire, Phoenix.
LeBron James, Cleveland.
Dwyane Wade, Miami.
Chris Bosh, Toronto.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas.
Josh Howard, Washington.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee.
Tyson Chandler, Charlotte.
A lot of room for hit-or-miss signings with these guys. James, Wade and Nowitzki are sure things. You know what you are going to get with them. Bosh, depending on the scenario, you do not know. Stoudemire can put up offensive numbers at times, but he doesn't play defense nor rebound as well as his height and athleticism would suggest. Chandler MUST be paired with a good-to-great point guard to even be effective, Josh Howard can't stay healthy and poor Michael Redd might just be done with those Patrick Ewing knees of his. Same with Yao and his Bill Walton feet.
Yao Ming.
You'd think Houston would be trying to hang onto him, broken foot and all -- injury history as a whole and all. I can't see them moving him, especially since they did nothing to fill the void (with the hopes he will return in 2010-2011; quite frankly he needed the rest after playing basketball year round on three continents for 8 straight years). I'm going to put this down as a lead-pipe lock pick that he's not moving. The Rockets even still have the cap space to re-sign him. What will be interesting is how Houston deals with the need to re-sign Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, both of whom are up (Scola being unrestricted, Hayes with a team-option).
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire.
I have seen him drop big numbers. He did so tonight (May 23, 2010). But his defensive deficiencies and lack of consistent rebounding preclude him from becoming a max player in my opinion. Nevertheless, he is 6'10", 240, still runs like a gazelle and is in the prime of his career, 7 years into the NBA and at age 28. Someone will make a run at him, although he is a 1b. type player. Not QUITE a max player, but just a hair under. Not a guy who would flourish without a Top 5 point guard. Will also be interesting to see how he works outside of a pick and roll system. However, someone will make a huge offer, and Stoudemire has the right of first refusal, as he has a player option to return at $17.7M next year in Phoenix.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Phoenix, Chicago, Miami, Wherever LeBron James goes.
LeBron James.
Listen, I've written extensively about this -- there is a nice summation on my Facebook page (for those who are friends with me on there), so I won't get into the whole deal again. Let's just break down the realities and diffuse all the armchair psychiatrist/wannabe GM talk.
1. No one knows what he is thinking, not World Wide Wes, not Jay-Z, not the city of Cleveland nor his most ardent fans, NOR DO YOU.
------
Now that we have that out of the way.
1. Playing and excelling/winning in New York trumps everything. It trumps anything Chicago can possibly offer, anything Los Angeles can offer, as well as Washington, Miami and any other team whose fans have concocted baseless reasons for believing James is going to sign there. For all we know he has no intention to leave Cleveland whatsoever, but in lieu of recent events, that looks scant at best.
2. The Cavaliers as presently constructed were overrated from the get-go. Throwing Shaq onto the team set them back two steps from the three steps forward they had made last year. 2007 -- Finals appearance, 2008 -- lose to Boston, 2009 -- high expectations, reach conference finals and lose to Orlando, 2010, even HIGHER expectations and lose in the 2nd round to Boston once again. Mo Williams is a 3rd tier player getting 2nd tier player recognition (All-Star???) and top tier player expectation from Cavalier fans. Delonte West is a bona fide headcase, as "recent events" further prove. Shaq was done 3 years ago. Zydrunas Ilgaukas has been a nice story of resiliency, but expecting this much from a 37-year old is absurd. The rest of their players are (BAD) role players or flop artists.
SN: Ever notice that when a writer is trying to inflate a team's success in a given season, but they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs, they call it "Conference Semifinals" (which it technically is, but it is amazing the effect words have on their readers), but when piling on a team, it is called "2nd Round" to give an illusion that they did not accomplish much?
3. Despite all the reports, all the rumors, and assessing cap situations of all teams -- the only VIABLE (logic, hometown alliances aside) options where 3 other teams do not need to get involved are the New Jersey Nets and the New York Knicks. There have been reports that Chris Bosh of Toronto has a 5-team list that basically patterns itself after the teams that LeBron James is most likely to chose should he leave Cleveland at all. To hitch your future to the uncertainty of another is folly, but understandable in this case.
Dallas is $30M over the cap BEFORE they ship away a player or two in a trade just to be able to RE-SIGN DIRK NOWITZKI -- never mind even thinking about LeBron James.
Chicago would need to send Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich and hope Toronto accepts them as they're both grossly overpaid (but whose salaries would match Bosh's in a scenario where Bosh signed with Toronto for the maximum 6 years, $125M, or on the average about $21M annually) just to have the CHANCE to attempt to sign James.
Washington has the cap space, but there is uncertainty from the very top (The Pollin Family's sale of the team to Ted Leonsis will be complete in the next two weeks -- no guarantees that Grunfeld and Saunders will be there come November and no one knows whether Gilbert Arenas and his massive contract will be there either), even with the widely-understood idea that the Wizards are going to select John Wall out of Kentucky with their #1 Overall Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.
Meanwhile, Miami, while maneuvering around to generate the cap space must attempt to persuade Wade to remain, before entertaining the internet-generated rumor that James would join Wade in Miami because they are "best friends" (not because the salary cap precludes this, though, huh? Or more importantly, owner Mickey Arison is loathe to pay the luxury tax?) Throw it out. The Heat are a bigger reach than both NY area teams combined.
New Jersey has the cap space, and a couple of young pieces, but in my opinion on PAPER they are a long shot. I just don't know what new Russian owner Mike Prokhorov has up his sleeve. He sounds (from listening to him speak about his new toy, the Nets) like he knows how to work the NBA system. Besides, you don't become worth $14B without knowing how to manage money and make shrewd deals and acquisitions. If you have followed Mike closely, you hear him emphasize his desire to make the Nets a GLOBAL brand -- that most NBA owners think locally/Mom & Pop, while he's looking to break down global barriers. What better way than to have the soon-to-be (sharing the spotlight with The Snake, no homo, until 2014) solo face of the NBA in James, Yi Jianlian and possibly Dirk Nowitzki to cater to three distinct fan bases, here in the US, Germany and parts of Europe and southeast Asia? Bears watching -- I really think the Nets will be active in free agency. And they're right in my backyard, so I have eyes and ears on it daily.
New York has the cap space, the amenities and fringe benefits that no other team's city can offer. The Knicks' players are currently no worse without LeBron currently, than the current Cavaliers team will be should James leave. In fact, the Knicks can lure the "other" superstar that the Cavs have never been able to do in Cleveland. They can also sign one of the aforementioned players coming off max deals who would be willing to play for an exception or two just to have the chance to play alongside James and superstar to be named later, as they'd become the best team in the Eastern Conference by default. Again, bears watching. I pass by both MSG and the NBA HQ every day that I am in the city. I will most likely be standing outside one or the other when the signing occurs. If anything breaks, you'll hear it here ha.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: All of the above and throw in both Los Angeles teams should a three-team deal be worked out in either circumstance.
Dwyane Wade.
Simple. Surround him with another star and better complimentary players or wave goodbye. No way he's going to Chicago (this is where that "he can come home" BS needs to just go away, along with the Nancy Boys who think like this. There's too much drama there off the court and Rose is a Wade clone. That is not going to work.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Miami, New York.
Chris Bosh.
He has hitched his wagon to LeBron James without saying as much in so many words. James' signing will precipitate a domino effect, so the best bet when predicting Bosh's destination is to just follow James'. He's not returning to Toronto, and will most likely be accommodated by the team with a sign-and-trade deal (netting Bosh an extra year of making $2M more annually than signing outright with another team for five years).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Wherever LeBron James goes.
Dirk Nowitzki.
I have heard questions even before Dirk announced that he will opt out of his contract after all. I predicted he would, but not because of Dallas' playoff woes or to join James or Wade. The NBA has an obscure rule called the "Over-36" clause. Dirk will be 32 in June. Whereas the other major free agents are younger than 30, or are at least 6 years younger than their 36th birthday, Nowitzki is not. Why is this important, you ask? It isn't a MAJOR deal unless he were to sign elsewhere. Otherwise, the difference in getting a further extension on his current contract would net him virtually the same monies as if he signed a brand new contract with Dallas -- but he does have the option to sign for a 5th year with the team with that maximum annual salary that he will receive. If he were to sign outright with New Jersey, for instance, he could only receive a four-year deal with maximum salary. It is almost certain that he will remain in Dallas unless owner Mark Cuban is made an offer he cannot refuse.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Dallas, New Jersey, Miami.
Josh Howard.
So many missteps, so many times putting his foot in his mouth -- and on top of that, he hasn't been fully healthy in two seasons. He's only 30, but it is hard to imagine he will garner more than $10-$12M on the open market -- which is what he's currently making -- and most likely not in Washington, because he is not that type of impact player. I've been wrong before, but I just have a feeling he's heading back to the Western Conference.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Orleans, Golden State, Sacramento.
Michael Redd.
I wish son the best, but I haven't seen more than a small handful of guys come back from multiple knee injuries with little to no cartilage and be anything more than a fringe player at best.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Decent backup on the Top 4 at the mid-level.
Tyson Chandler.
Tough market for him. He's a big man, but limited skills. And after 9 seasons, he is what he is. He tries hard, but without even an above average point guard (neither Augustin [yet] nor Felton [will never be] is such) he cannot excel. Chris Paul made him look great, but he's been average since leaving New Orleans -- even when he is healthy. He is still just 27, so the Bobcats may keep him, as their main objective is to land a legitimate scorer on the wing who has a "closer" mentality. Right now, the only player available for the Cats to stand any realistic chance of landing (if he opts out) and meets that role is Jamal Crawford.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Charlotte.
More Opt-Out Guys:
Carlos Boozer, Utah
Chris Paul, New Orleans
I separate these two with good reason -- their futures have so many caveats tied to them that it is fathomable for them to do anything from remain with their current teams or go to one of a number of different teams. STAY TUNED. Boozer is a semi-impactful player, but Chris Paul is one of the max players who can shift a team's level of success just by stepping on the court.
And again, they may not even opt out, so it's not important to address them anymore than noting they are ELIGIBLE to opt out this summer as well as the others above.
Other free agents for 2010:
Ben Wallace, Detroit.
Larry Hughes, Charlotte.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland.
Al Harrington, New York.
Darko Milicic, Minnesota.
Udonis Haslem, Miami.
Jamal Crawford, Atlanta.
Eddy Curry, New York.
Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers.
(There are others, just none worth noting).
Wallace isn't costing the Pistons anything, and no one else wants him at this point in his career. Larry Hughes is on the cheap also. A good backup/3rd player/spot starter. Ilgauskas and Varejao can both opt out of their contracts with Cleveland along with LeBron and that's potentially huge. Al Harrington definitely will not be back with the Knicks at his cost and disjointed/missing production. Milicic is heading back overseas. Haslem is a decent player. Maybe he returns to Miami? Orlando could use an enforcer next to Howard. Crawford will remain in his division, in my opinion. Curry (if he is smart) will protect himself by using his player option for 2010-2011. However, the Knicks will protect themselves by using his then to-be expiring contract as bait to offer a trade either after the initial free agency period or later in February (Denver, for Anthony?) Fish is a Laker or retiring.
NEW YORK KNICKS NEEDS AND PERSONAL PREFERENCES:
1. The Knicks need someone to patrol the paint on both ends. Curry, even at his best, can only do that offensively. And he may not be back, anyway. There will be some question about who will be signed alongside any max player(s) the Knicks sign, as they will only have minimum cap space (before exceptions) to sign the other 5 players who will not be under contract -- in order to reach the NBA requisite minimum roster number of 13.
*** It should be noted that draft picks do not necessarily count towards the cap number for each team.
2. A NEW COACH (but that's personal).
D'Antoni may not be back, especially if that becomes a bone of contention for James and/or Bosh and determining whether they decide to come to New York or not.
PERSONAL:
What I'd like to see is Toronto execute a sign-and-trade with Chris Bosh, offer him the max deal he wants (although he is much like Stoudemire as a 1b.) and New York signs David Lee to a $12-$14M deal, sending another player (Rodriguez, who will then become an unrestricted free agent after next season) and cash considerations to Toronto.
Sign Dwyane Wade OR LeBron James.
With remaining cap space offer deals to either Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton or another player at the MLE and draft wisely.
OR
Sign LeBron James, Rudy Gay, trade for Caron Butler and offer one of the aforementioned players at the MLE. Yes, if you've put 2+2 together with these names, it APPEARS "that's" what I'm implying, but I'm not on that hokey "fill a roster with guys from the same school" nonsense -- it's just highly convenient that certain players are in walk years and others are coming up on them next year and would be effective on the same team.
To go with young Toney Douglas, Will The Thrill Chandler and Young Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) that would be a tough core and the best in the Eastern Conference.
Too many ifs, in-turns, and only once so and so does this, that or the third -- type scenarios to do more than speculate at this point. However, I will have bi-weekly updates once the NBA Finals conclude and especially (as situations warrant) once the NBA Draft is complete. I am planning to be present at the Draft this year, while failing last year to secure tickets while standing on a line with Jayson Albert in front of Madison Square Garden for over an hour. Live reports from inside if I am able to get in this year.
DISCUSS>>>
M.D. Wright
5.23.10
I get asked daily "Mike, where do you think so and so is going after the season???" Hey, I'm not in those guys' heads. I dunno. People think "going back home" is automatically atop a guy's list of priorities when considering signing with a different team. It rarely is, in reality -- going back to familiar surroundings usually means more trouble than success; as guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and others have realized. So to propose with authority that I know where someone is going to sign is ludicrous. I can only guess, based off factors such as teams' salary cap space, existing rosters/teams' needs, who is truly a "max player" (there are only 7 or 8 in the NBA in 2010 -- and that's being generous) and how championship-ready a team is. Some teams run their franchises as a business. Others are in it SOLELY focused on winning 'chips -- and money comes as a result.
With that said, here is the list:
(Again, note that with the Collective Bargaining Agreement, there is contract-specific language and there are different types of Free Agents)
Unrestricted Free Agents:
Joe Johnson, Atlanta
Ray Allen, Boston
Emanuel Ginobili, San Antonio
Marcus Camby, Portland
Tracy McGracy, New York
Shaquille O'Neal, Cleveland
Brad Miller, Chicago
Jermaine O'Neal, Miami
Mike Miller, Washington
Richard Hamilton, Detroit
There are some intriguing names on this list. None of them are superstars (the one or two who once were are DONE), but they can be effective players on new teams. A few will have to take massive pay-cut (McGrady, Allen, BOTH O'Neals, for instance) just to be able to crack a roster on a good team, because most of the contenders are pressed against the cap, well over the cap, aren't necessarily looking for another superstar (and obviously unable to afford one), so thus will be using their mid-level exceptions (and any other exception the NBA grants them) to sign players.
Speaking of exceptions, the number of lackwit buffoons on message boards, Facebook, team pages running around with theories about where certain players "definitely won't be going" astounds me and sometimes makes me chuckle. I see and hear anti-Knick hatred all the time. Fans who hated the Knicks in the 90s took delight in watching the Knicks struggle like a dyslexic reading Latin, but one of my favourite jabs is "the Knicks only have 3 players under contract for next season" (we have 6, and another has a player option -- Eddy Curry, who I HOPE doesn't use it ha), and "how can the Knicks sign LeBron, Wade or Bosh AND the 5 other spots that need to be filled?"
Look, there are a dozen different salary cap exceptions in the NBA. Most hacks only know about the Bird exceptions and the mid-level exceptions. But those are elementary both in intent and usage. Teams also have what is called a MINIMUM SALARY EXCEPTION -- which enables a team to sign as many players at the NBA League Minimum salary, guaranteed, for up to two years each -- as the team sees fit in order to fill their roster. In all honesty, in a scenario where the Knicks were to land two of the players they'd like and filling their roster, they can easily do this. #shotsfired at people who continue to think "there is no way LeBron is leaving Cleveland". Don't be so sure, the Knicks' stock hit the NYSE (as "MSG") last fall, and James would have the ability to buy stock in the team if he saw fit. Do we really want to count the number of benefits that playing in New York offers a player of his calibre -- a number which far exceeds any other city? INCLUDING Los Angeles?
Back to the column.
***MAX PLAYERS (IN MY OPINION):
LeBron James
Kobe Bryant
Dwyane Wade
Pau Gasol
Carmelo Anthony
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Paul (when healthy)
* Dwight Howard
* - Denotes PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-POST GAME
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AS FOR PENDING FREE AGENTS --
I'm going to tackle each one of these players' attributes and surmise where I believe their options are in terms of a potential new team.
Joe Johnson.
You know me, I'm a blunt, straight-forward and honest guy. This dude is overrated. I heard people say for years "he's so underrated!" How so? He played for a bum team for years until Mike Woodson brought them to playoff level in 2008. Putting up big (hollow) numbers on bad teams isn't impressive to me. Especially when you don't get near the number of rebounds that you should, nor assists, and your defense is virtually non-existent.
Don't get me wrong, he can score and he shoots a decent percentage. But that just makes him Glenn Robinson Lite, not a MAX PLAYER. And what's more, his disappearance in the past two seasons' playoffs should be enough of a warning to teams who still had an idea that Johnson was a max-level player. He doesn't have the heart, complete skill set, the killer instinct, nor the explosive ability to change a game. Max players MUST have two of those four attributes to warrant a maximum contract, in my opinion. Johnson is a good complimentary piece, or he can dupe the Hawks into an Allan Houston move (getting the team to bid against itself, when no one else was offering near the contract that was eventually awarded). He isn't a guy you build around, but he's a good 2nd or 3rd option with the right mix of players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Atlanta, New Jersey, Miami, Washington.
Ray Allen.
Old Man Allen. The ex-Husky from UConn. He gets respect from me (although he lost some of it for a while there due to his verbal jabs/hating lobbed at Kobe a few years back when he was with Seattle), but he will be 35 in two months. And he was making $20M this season. That's not going to happen again, obviously. Two big questions arise with Allen, ESPECIALLY if the Celtics do not win the 2010 NBA Finals -- 1) Does he even want to continue playing? If so, for how long? and 2) How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? He may have to take a 40% cut down to $12M or even about a roughly 2/3 cut to accept the veteran's minimum and either remain in Boston and squeeze one more year out there, or play nomad and hitch his wagon to the Lakers or wherever LeBron James lands.
His situation is actually more alluring to me than most of the so-called "Top Tier" free agents, because he can still stroke it and is a glue guy who you can depend on every night to give you his best. I just do not see anyone paying him more than $10M-$12M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Any contender -- seriously (Boston, Cleveland -- should James remain, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas and non-contenders such as Chicago and New York).
Emanuel Ginobili.
I just don't see the Spurs parting with him under any circumstances. Although Richard Jefferson's contract was a bad move ($14.2M) by RC Buford and Gregg Popovich, the Spurs do still maintain enough flexibility to retain Ginobili. I honestly cannot see him playing elsewhere and the aforementioned front office tandem always knows how to work the cap and makes smart personnel moves.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: San Antonio.
Marcus Camby.
Interesting and intriguing. The guy was brittle when he was with the Knicks, but at the same time, his production here is what made him somewhat coveted in the 6 or 7 years since he was moved to Denver. I just have concerns about his age now. He is 36. However, he has been healthy the past 2-3 seasons and contributed mightily. Maybe all that time he sat over the years makes him more like 32, 33 than 36 ha?
We'll see, but I think Portland may keep him for a year or two, unless he really thinks he is worth more than the $7.6M he received last year -- just a shade over the mid-level exception. Could he return to New York? Who knows. The fans still love him here.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Portland, Detroit, Toronto, Charlotte.
Tracy McGrady.
The Knicks only traded for him in order to secure his expiring contract of $23M. He was easily the highest paid player in the NBA last season, which is embarrassing. Yes, he's been injured, but even at 100% health and 5 years ago McGrady wasn't worth that much money. However, the Knicks are glad he's coming off THEIR books. That frees up such cap space that the Knicks can sign two maximum level players. Thanks Tracy.
As to where he goes? It's tough to call. That balky knee of his flared up after just one (very good game, BTW) with the Knicks after the trade. He was hobbled and icing his knees like 1998's Patrick Ewing after that. Hard to imagine anyone wants him for anything more than the veteran's minimum or the MLE -- and even then, it would have to be a contender. None of the contender really needs someone of McGrady's ilk unless he is HEALTHY. And there is no guarantee that will be, after 5 straight seasons of various nicks and bumps, and trips on the injured list.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New York (VM), Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio, Oklahoma City.
Shaquille O'Neal.
Hard to say what he will do. He says he still wants to play (and claims he has 3-4 good years left?)
................
Anyway, his contract expired at the $20M annually he received when he initially went to Miami for 5 years, $100M. Everyone knows he's not getting that, and he's finally come back to earth long enough to realize he's not a #1 guy or even a #2 anymore. But if he is willing to subjugate himself into a proper role with the right team, he might be able to ride another team's coattails to another ring. But it won't be at $20M per. Nor $10M (unless Prokhorov decides to get crazy with the spending, and all indications are that he WON'T).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Jersey (Shaq is originally from Newark and could be a good backup), Orlando (irony on two levels, although it is only a funny possible storyline as the Magic are woefully over the cap due to the horrendous contracts of Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter), San Antonio, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City.
Brad Miller.
He doesn't have much left in the tank. When big men hit 33, 34, they really slide QUICKLY when it comes to athleticism. Miller, his age compounded by his past injuries looks the part. He doesn't give the Bulls much, as they would prefer to run. He's a better halfcourt player than anything else. Would be a good fit on a younger team such as Philadelphia or maybe Atlanta. And certainly not at $12.2M.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Golden State, Philadelphia, Atlanta.
Jermaine O'Neal.
He's done. I always thought he was slightly overrated even at his apex. He's nearing the nadir of his career (I'm not entertaining the injury excuses anymore at this point) and with the astronomical contract he had before, there's no way he's getting more than the mid-level exception to maybe help the Rockets or Grizzlies. The Heat need his cap space to sign a couple of big name players.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Houston, Memphis.
Mike Miller.
Mike Miller is a nice player, shoots well, sometimes plays defense and won't KILL you, causing you to lose games -- but he won't win them, either. He's just a nice addition to the right team. Indications are he's staying put, but it's hard to see how he's going to warrant a raise. He's making $10M at this point and the
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Washington, Houston, Miami, Boston.
Richard Hamilton.
Pretty much a one-trick pony at this point in his career -- definitely heading toward the downside. He was never strong enough to create his own shot consistently and at 32, obviously has lost a step. But the Pistons have a glut in their backcourt and with Ben Gordon tied up for 4 more years and $11M per, Hamilton is likely the odd man out. There's not a huge market for him. He's likely going to be one of those guys whose destination will be determined by what the Top Tier players decide to do, as he's gone from a Second Tier guy to a Third Tier guy in the past two seasons.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Detroit, Milwaukee, Denver, Los Angeles (both teams).
There are guys with Player Options/Early Termination Options for 2010-2011, and can opt out this summer (2010) as well:
Yao Ming, Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire, Phoenix.
LeBron James, Cleveland.
Dwyane Wade, Miami.
Chris Bosh, Toronto.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas.
Josh Howard, Washington.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee.
Tyson Chandler, Charlotte.
A lot of room for hit-or-miss signings with these guys. James, Wade and Nowitzki are sure things. You know what you are going to get with them. Bosh, depending on the scenario, you do not know. Stoudemire can put up offensive numbers at times, but he doesn't play defense nor rebound as well as his height and athleticism would suggest. Chandler MUST be paired with a good-to-great point guard to even be effective, Josh Howard can't stay healthy and poor Michael Redd might just be done with those Patrick Ewing knees of his. Same with Yao and his Bill Walton feet.
Yao Ming.
You'd think Houston would be trying to hang onto him, broken foot and all -- injury history as a whole and all. I can't see them moving him, especially since they did nothing to fill the void (with the hopes he will return in 2010-2011; quite frankly he needed the rest after playing basketball year round on three continents for 8 straight years). I'm going to put this down as a lead-pipe lock pick that he's not moving. The Rockets even still have the cap space to re-sign him. What will be interesting is how Houston deals with the need to re-sign Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, both of whom are up (Scola being unrestricted, Hayes with a team-option).
POSSIBLE DESTINATION: Houston.
Amaré Stoudemire.
I have seen him drop big numbers. He did so tonight (May 23, 2010). But his defensive deficiencies and lack of consistent rebounding preclude him from becoming a max player in my opinion. Nevertheless, he is 6'10", 240, still runs like a gazelle and is in the prime of his career, 7 years into the NBA and at age 28. Someone will make a run at him, although he is a 1b. type player. Not QUITE a max player, but just a hair under. Not a guy who would flourish without a Top 5 point guard. Will also be interesting to see how he works outside of a pick and roll system. However, someone will make a huge offer, and Stoudemire has the right of first refusal, as he has a player option to return at $17.7M next year in Phoenix.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Phoenix, Chicago, Miami, Wherever LeBron James goes.
LeBron James.
Listen, I've written extensively about this -- there is a nice summation on my Facebook page (for those who are friends with me on there), so I won't get into the whole deal again. Let's just break down the realities and diffuse all the armchair psychiatrist/wannabe GM talk.
1. No one knows what he is thinking, not World Wide Wes, not Jay-Z, not the city of Cleveland nor his most ardent fans, NOR DO YOU.
------
Now that we have that out of the way.
1. Playing and excelling/winning in New York trumps everything. It trumps anything Chicago can possibly offer, anything Los Angeles can offer, as well as Washington, Miami and any other team whose fans have concocted baseless reasons for believing James is going to sign there. For all we know he has no intention to leave Cleveland whatsoever, but in lieu of recent events, that looks scant at best.
2. The Cavaliers as presently constructed were overrated from the get-go. Throwing Shaq onto the team set them back two steps from the three steps forward they had made last year. 2007 -- Finals appearance, 2008 -- lose to Boston, 2009 -- high expectations, reach conference finals and lose to Orlando, 2010, even HIGHER expectations and lose in the 2nd round to Boston once again. Mo Williams is a 3rd tier player getting 2nd tier player recognition (All-Star???) and top tier player expectation from Cavalier fans. Delonte West is a bona fide headcase, as "recent events" further prove. Shaq was done 3 years ago. Zydrunas Ilgaukas has been a nice story of resiliency, but expecting this much from a 37-year old is absurd. The rest of their players are (BAD) role players or flop artists.
SN: Ever notice that when a writer is trying to inflate a team's success in a given season, but they lose in the 2nd round of the playoffs, they call it "Conference Semifinals" (which it technically is, but it is amazing the effect words have on their readers), but when piling on a team, it is called "2nd Round" to give an illusion that they did not accomplish much?
3. Despite all the reports, all the rumors, and assessing cap situations of all teams -- the only VIABLE (logic, hometown alliances aside) options where 3 other teams do not need to get involved are the New Jersey Nets and the New York Knicks. There have been reports that Chris Bosh of Toronto has a 5-team list that basically patterns itself after the teams that LeBron James is most likely to chose should he leave Cleveland at all. To hitch your future to the uncertainty of another is folly, but understandable in this case.
Dallas is $30M over the cap BEFORE they ship away a player or two in a trade just to be able to RE-SIGN DIRK NOWITZKI -- never mind even thinking about LeBron James.
Chicago would need to send Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich and hope Toronto accepts them as they're both grossly overpaid (but whose salaries would match Bosh's in a scenario where Bosh signed with Toronto for the maximum 6 years, $125M, or on the average about $21M annually) just to have the CHANCE to attempt to sign James.
Washington has the cap space, but there is uncertainty from the very top (The Pollin Family's sale of the team to Ted Leonsis will be complete in the next two weeks -- no guarantees that Grunfeld and Saunders will be there come November and no one knows whether Gilbert Arenas and his massive contract will be there either), even with the widely-understood idea that the Wizards are going to select John Wall out of Kentucky with their #1 Overall Pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.
Meanwhile, Miami, while maneuvering around to generate the cap space must attempt to persuade Wade to remain, before entertaining the internet-generated rumor that James would join Wade in Miami because they are "best friends" (not because the salary cap precludes this, though, huh? Or more importantly, owner Mickey Arison is loathe to pay the luxury tax?) Throw it out. The Heat are a bigger reach than both NY area teams combined.
New Jersey has the cap space, and a couple of young pieces, but in my opinion on PAPER they are a long shot. I just don't know what new Russian owner Mike Prokhorov has up his sleeve. He sounds (from listening to him speak about his new toy, the Nets) like he knows how to work the NBA system. Besides, you don't become worth $14B without knowing how to manage money and make shrewd deals and acquisitions. If you have followed Mike closely, you hear him emphasize his desire to make the Nets a GLOBAL brand -- that most NBA owners think locally/Mom & Pop, while he's looking to break down global barriers. What better way than to have the soon-to-be (sharing the spotlight with The Snake, no homo, until 2014) solo face of the NBA in James, Yi Jianlian and possibly Dirk Nowitzki to cater to three distinct fan bases, here in the US, Germany and parts of Europe and southeast Asia? Bears watching -- I really think the Nets will be active in free agency. And they're right in my backyard, so I have eyes and ears on it daily.
New York has the cap space, the amenities and fringe benefits that no other team's city can offer. The Knicks' players are currently no worse without LeBron currently, than the current Cavaliers team will be should James leave. In fact, the Knicks can lure the "other" superstar that the Cavs have never been able to do in Cleveland. They can also sign one of the aforementioned players coming off max deals who would be willing to play for an exception or two just to have the chance to play alongside James and superstar to be named later, as they'd become the best team in the Eastern Conference by default. Again, bears watching. I pass by both MSG and the NBA HQ every day that I am in the city. I will most likely be standing outside one or the other when the signing occurs. If anything breaks, you'll hear it here ha.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: All of the above and throw in both Los Angeles teams should a three-team deal be worked out in either circumstance.
Dwyane Wade.
Simple. Surround him with another star and better complimentary players or wave goodbye. No way he's going to Chicago (this is where that "he can come home" BS needs to just go away, along with the Nancy Boys who think like this. There's too much drama there off the court and Rose is a Wade clone. That is not going to work.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Miami, New York.
Chris Bosh.
He has hitched his wagon to LeBron James without saying as much in so many words. James' signing will precipitate a domino effect, so the best bet when predicting Bosh's destination is to just follow James'. He's not returning to Toronto, and will most likely be accommodated by the team with a sign-and-trade deal (netting Bosh an extra year of making $2M more annually than signing outright with another team for five years).
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Wherever LeBron James goes.
Dirk Nowitzki.
I have heard questions even before Dirk announced that he will opt out of his contract after all. I predicted he would, but not because of Dallas' playoff woes or to join James or Wade. The NBA has an obscure rule called the "Over-36" clause. Dirk will be 32 in June. Whereas the other major free agents are younger than 30, or are at least 6 years younger than their 36th birthday, Nowitzki is not. Why is this important, you ask? It isn't a MAJOR deal unless he were to sign elsewhere. Otherwise, the difference in getting a further extension on his current contract would net him virtually the same monies as if he signed a brand new contract with Dallas -- but he does have the option to sign for a 5th year with the team with that maximum annual salary that he will receive. If he were to sign outright with New Jersey, for instance, he could only receive a four-year deal with maximum salary. It is almost certain that he will remain in Dallas unless owner Mark Cuban is made an offer he cannot refuse.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Dallas, New Jersey, Miami.
Josh Howard.
So many missteps, so many times putting his foot in his mouth -- and on top of that, he hasn't been fully healthy in two seasons. He's only 30, but it is hard to imagine he will garner more than $10-$12M on the open market -- which is what he's currently making -- and most likely not in Washington, because he is not that type of impact player. I've been wrong before, but I just have a feeling he's heading back to the Western Conference.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: New Orleans, Golden State, Sacramento.
Michael Redd.
I wish son the best, but I haven't seen more than a small handful of guys come back from multiple knee injuries with little to no cartilage and be anything more than a fringe player at best.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Decent backup on the Top 4 at the mid-level.
Tyson Chandler.
Tough market for him. He's a big man, but limited skills. And after 9 seasons, he is what he is. He tries hard, but without even an above average point guard (neither Augustin [yet] nor Felton [will never be] is such) he cannot excel. Chris Paul made him look great, but he's been average since leaving New Orleans -- even when he is healthy. He is still just 27, so the Bobcats may keep him, as their main objective is to land a legitimate scorer on the wing who has a "closer" mentality. Right now, the only player available for the Cats to stand any realistic chance of landing (if he opts out) and meets that role is Jamal Crawford.
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Charlotte.
More Opt-Out Guys:
Carlos Boozer, Utah
Chris Paul, New Orleans
I separate these two with good reason -- their futures have so many caveats tied to them that it is fathomable for them to do anything from remain with their current teams or go to one of a number of different teams. STAY TUNED. Boozer is a semi-impactful player, but Chris Paul is one of the max players who can shift a team's level of success just by stepping on the court.
And again, they may not even opt out, so it's not important to address them anymore than noting they are ELIGIBLE to opt out this summer as well as the others above.
Other free agents for 2010:
Ben Wallace, Detroit.
Larry Hughes, Charlotte.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cleveland.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland.
Al Harrington, New York.
Darko Milicic, Minnesota.
Udonis Haslem, Miami.
Jamal Crawford, Atlanta.
Eddy Curry, New York.
Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers.
(There are others, just none worth noting).
Wallace isn't costing the Pistons anything, and no one else wants him at this point in his career. Larry Hughes is on the cheap also. A good backup/3rd player/spot starter. Ilgauskas and Varejao can both opt out of their contracts with Cleveland along with LeBron and that's potentially huge. Al Harrington definitely will not be back with the Knicks at his cost and disjointed/missing production. Milicic is heading back overseas. Haslem is a decent player. Maybe he returns to Miami? Orlando could use an enforcer next to Howard. Crawford will remain in his division, in my opinion. Curry (if he is smart) will protect himself by using his player option for 2010-2011. However, the Knicks will protect themselves by using his then to-be expiring contract as bait to offer a trade either after the initial free agency period or later in February (Denver, for Anthony?) Fish is a Laker or retiring.
NEW YORK KNICKS NEEDS AND PERSONAL PREFERENCES:
1. The Knicks need someone to patrol the paint on both ends. Curry, even at his best, can only do that offensively. And he may not be back, anyway. There will be some question about who will be signed alongside any max player(s) the Knicks sign, as they will only have minimum cap space (before exceptions) to sign the other 5 players who will not be under contract -- in order to reach the NBA requisite minimum roster number of 13.
*** It should be noted that draft picks do not necessarily count towards the cap number for each team.
2. A NEW COACH (but that's personal).
D'Antoni may not be back, especially if that becomes a bone of contention for James and/or Bosh and determining whether they decide to come to New York or not.
PERSONAL:
What I'd like to see is Toronto execute a sign-and-trade with Chris Bosh, offer him the max deal he wants (although he is much like Stoudemire as a 1b.) and New York signs David Lee to a $12-$14M deal, sending another player (Rodriguez, who will then become an unrestricted free agent after next season) and cash considerations to Toronto.
Sign Dwyane Wade OR LeBron James.
With remaining cap space offer deals to either Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton or another player at the MLE and draft wisely.
OR
Sign LeBron James, Rudy Gay, trade for Caron Butler and offer one of the aforementioned players at the MLE. Yes, if you've put 2+2 together with these names, it APPEARS "that's" what I'm implying, but I'm not on that hokey "fill a roster with guys from the same school" nonsense -- it's just highly convenient that certain players are in walk years and others are coming up on them next year and would be effective on the same team.
To go with young Toney Douglas, Will The Thrill Chandler and Young Gallo (Danilo Gallinari) that would be a tough core and the best in the Eastern Conference.
Too many ifs, in-turns, and only once so and so does this, that or the third -- type scenarios to do more than speculate at this point. However, I will have bi-weekly updates once the NBA Finals conclude and especially (as situations warrant) once the NBA Draft is complete. I am planning to be present at the Draft this year, while failing last year to secure tickets while standing on a line with Jayson Albert in front of Madison Square Garden for over an hour. Live reports from inside if I am able to get in this year.
DISCUSS>>>
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