2009 Major League Baseball Predictions

2009 Major League Baseball Predictions
M.D. Wright
10.6.09

While we have a 163rd regular season game/playoff to decide the last team in the American League wild card, I will go ahead with who I think will win that game and go on from there with the predictions in each circuit.

WILD CARD DIVISIONAL SERIES

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL Central Champion Minnesota Twins.


vs.

AL East Champion New York Yankees.


Twins are scrappy. Their pitching staff is nothing special, but they are never really out of games. However, the Yankees own the Twins historically in the regular season and playoffs. Top to bottom the Yankees are better.

Yanks in 3.
--------------------------

AL Wild Card Champion Boston Red Sox.


vs.

AL West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.


The Red Sox OWN the Angels, but I do believe this is the year the Angels snap that spell. For one, they led the majors in offence without sacrificing good pitching. In years past, they got wins by manufacturing them base to base. They have tons of guys who have high slugging percentages and total bases. This is the year the Angels beat the Red Sox.

The Sox are also entering the playoffs on a hot streak, but their offence CAN go cold at times and it will in this series.

Angels in 4.
----------------------------

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL West Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.


vs.

NL Central Champion St. Louis Cardinals.


I just think the Cardinals have two of the best pitchers in all of baseball and enough consistent offence (if Holliday is healthy) to outscore the Dodgers, regardless of who is on the mound for LAD. They're too banged up and inconsistent with their starters.

Cards in 4.
-----------------------------

NL Wild Card Champion Colorado Rockies.


vs.

NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies.


The Phillies whine too much. They whine about having to play at 2:30 today. SO WHAT. Would you rather that the Braves made the playoffs in your stead? Play ball, wuss boys. I think the Rockies are feisty and the Phillies have enough pitching questions that the Rockies WILL beat them.

Rockies in 5.
------------------------------

LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim


vs.

New York Yankees.


Yanks have homefield. It matters. Against a team in Anaheim, which has owned the Yankees this entire decade, it is imperative to have any advantage working for you. The Angels can score just as much as the Yankees do, so it's a pick 'em there. The Angels' pitching can be just as good -- although we know CC Sabathia's struggles in the past will be mitigated this year by run support and Andy is ALWAYS clutch. For the first time in years, the Yanks don't bog down offensively and win the pennant.

Yankees in 6.
-------------------------

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Colorado Rockies


vs.

St. Louis Cardinals.


The Rockies will fight to the death, but the Cards are just too good across the board to beat them with luck over 7 games.

Cardinals in 5.
-------------------------

WORLD SERIES

St. Louis Cardinals


vs.

New York Yankees.


The Cards can score, no doubt. They "Ulbert" The Machine. They have Wainwright and Carpenter. However, give me Andy in any series twice and I love the Yanks' chances. Check the stats. And ask any REAL non-bragging Yankee fan. ANDY IS AUTOMATIC.

Yankees in 6.

YANKEES WIN. THEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN.

NFL Week 5 Powre Rankings

NFL Week 5 Powre Rankings
M.D. Wright
10.6.09

What an exciting weekend of NFL football. FROM START TO FINISH. The 4 or 5 great teams are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. The worst teams in the NFL are pretty much determined and the 15 or 16 teams that aren't going anywhere are evident and identical at this point. I love the 1/4 mark of the season. Things become clearer:

1. New York Giants.

Again. I say it every week, but Best Offensive Line + Best Defense + Best Running Game + Top 5 QB = Best Team in the NFL. 4-0, regardless of opponents, lands them #1 until they are unseated. And yes, the next two teams are extremely close.

2. Minnesota Vikings.

They are solid all around. Favre is playing well FOR NOW. We know that won't last all season. AD is the best RB in the NFL. Their defence is a bit overrated, however. They get it done with Kevin Williams (Pat is overrated -- just fat), Jared Allen is a machine at RE (Edwards is nothing to speak of at LE) and Antione Winfield is the most underrated CB in the NFL -- has been for years. HOWEVER, their pass defence is poor and susceptible to big plays. That is probably the sole reason (apart from Favre's inevitable killer INTs) why they can't be #1.

3. Indianapolis Colts.

Man oh man, Peyton continues to prove why he is the best QB in the NFL (Brees and his brother are the only ones playing at his level as of Week 5 in 2009). Whoever the Colts trot out there at WR, Peyton makes them look good (Garçon, for instance). The running game has not been explosive, but it gets the job done. The Colts are opportunistic on defence. They win. That's all that matters.

4. New Orleans Saints.

Explosive as all hell on offence. They fly around and are opportunistic on defence. However, they have tons of holes on both sides of the ball. Their defence can be scored upon by great QBs and their offence appears to be one-dimensional with no-names at running back. BUT, they win.

5. Denver Broncos.

UGH. I hate putting them here, but they keep winning and they have only yielded 26 points in FOUR GAMES. Can't hate.

6. Cincinnati Bengals.

THE YOUNG BENGALS. I will say it every week, but aside from a fluky play in Denver, they would be 4-0. It was an ugly win vs. Cleveland in Week 4, but they won.

7. Chicago Bears.

UGH.

8. New England Patriots.

Whatever. They should be 1-3. Buffalo had them beat and with the aide of two of the most BOGUS roughing the passer penalties I've seen this decade, they managed to "win" in Week 4.

9. New York Jets.

Nothing to hang their heads for. Actually shut down a vaunted Saints' offence. Only Sanchez' rookie mistakes, which will happen, were the difference. They played the Saints neck and neck otherwise.

10. Houston Texans.

Texans' MO: Score a ton against good teams. Give up a ton to good teams. Score a ton on bad teams. Give up nothing against bad teams. That simple formula yields 2/3 percentages. .667 is a good winning percentage in the NFL and if they manage that this year, it would be the Texans' best season and a Wild Card berth, since the Colts are going to win that division.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers.

They miss Polamalu, but otherwise, they are fine.

12. Baltimore Ravens.

Yielding more points than ever this year, but they were screwed by terrible officiating in Week 4.

13. Philadelphia Eagles.

We will be waiting all season for this supposed "unstoppable" offence. Yes, on paper, those names look great and if they're healthy, yes, they are formidable. Their defence has more holes than ever. They can't win it all with that defence. They are the Saints North.

14. Dallas Cowboys.

Romo can make plays that no one else can. But he makes dumb mistakes that no (supposed) great QB does nor should. Otherwise, they'd be 4-0.

15. San Francisco 49ers.

They have to do it back to back weeks. Granted, they lost on a last second play, but they looked shaky before Seattle handed them the game in Week 4.

16. Atlanta Falcons.

Nothing special here. They don't kill themselves, but they're not a good road team and that will land them in this precise spot when the season ends (i.e. last team in the playoff wild card in the NFC).

17. San Diego Chargers.

Waiting until the 4th quarter to play football won't get it done. This team was inked to win the AFC West by 5 games. They may barely make the playoffs (again) at this rate.

18. Arizona Cardinals.

The OTHER underachieving team of the year with San Diego. You have two STUDS at WR and the best slot WR in the NFC and you can't score against average defences?

19. Miami Dolphins.

Blew out the Bills -- in MY face.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars.

Finally coming alive. Two straight strong games.

21. Tennessee Titans.

FALLING FAST. Time to bench Collins. Told you this would happen.

22. Green Bay Packers.

Have to knock them. Their offensive line SUCKS. Rodgers is just THAT MUCH OF A STUD that he is able to get it done with NO time to pass.

23. Seattle Seahawks.

Seriously UNclutch.

24. Buffalo Bills.

Edwards just can't cut it. He looked good in the preseason, but there's no excuse for this with his weapons. Dick Jauron sucks as a coach, though. Owens won't blow up like everyone predicts, however.

25. Detroit Lions.

Still making strides. They try so hard.

26. Washington Redskins.

Zorn is skating on thin ice with every game. Win or lose.

27. Carolina Panthers.

They need to fix their offense QUICKLY -- and wake Julius Peppers.

28. Oakland Raiders.

JaMarcus Russell GOOD HEAVENS.

29. Kansas City Chiefs.

They're feisty, but years from contention.

30. Cleveland Browns.

YUCK. Dumb coach, no continuity offensively and they don't know who their QB is going to be week to week.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

When you suck like Tampa does, you have to play to win the game. Coach Morris doesn't appear to have a set of brass ones, as evidenced by his decisions late in the Redskins game Week 4.

32. St. Louis Rams.

The absolute worst team I've seen for three straight years outside of the Lions prior to this year and some of the Tampa teams from my childhood. DEAR. GOD.

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 4 Picks
M.D. Wright
10.2.09

Another great week for my picks both straight up and ATS.

Week 1: 11-5.
Week 2: 11-5.
Week 3: 11-5.

NOW, we begin to see what teams are really made of, with the Saints hosting the Jets and Ravens going to New England. Let's get it!

Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas

Over/Under: 42.5
HOU: -8.5
OAK: +320
HOU: -400

Oakland is getting 8.5? I don't trust Houston's defence enough to cover that. One of the safe wagers this week may be to take the Raiders to cover. I wouldn't take them straight up because they don't have even a semi-competent QB; but they will be able to run the ball against Houston and there will be some deep plays to be had (the ONE thing Russell "excels" at).

Pick:
Oakland 16
Houston 21

FINAL
------------------

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida

Over/Under: 41.5
JAX: +3
TEN: -150
JAX: +130

Ugly game. Do the Titans finally get off the schnide (no)? Are the Jaguwires irreparable (yes)? I hate watching these two teams play against ANYONE.
Johnson should get yards against the Jags' front seven, but I don't see MJD doing the same against the Titans. That's the only palpable matchup.

Pick:
Tennessee 17
Jacksonville 16

FINAL
-------------

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts

Over/Under: 44.5
NE: -1.5
PICK 'EM

This will be one of the best games this weekend if it goes like I expect. The Ravens aren't playing defence at QUITE the calibre of the teams from earlier in the decade -- which were defences for the AGES -- but they are still very formidable. Thomas will be dirty.

Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should get good yardage against the Patriots' front. I take the Ravens to cover, take the over and if there is a money line by game time, take the Ravens' as well.

Pick:
Baltimore 24
New England 20

FINAL
-------------

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio

Over/Under: 37.5
CLE: +6
CIN: -260
CLE: +220

The Bengals are riding high off two impressive wins -- and what could possibly have been a 3-0 start, if not for a fluky play to end the game Week 1 vs. Denver. The Browns are so inept (led by their monumentally inept head coach) that the Bengals will cover those 6 points they're giving to the Browns. UGH, the Browns should've just cut their losses when the old Browns left to go to Baltimore and become the Ravens. They have been disgusting all but one year since they re-entered the NFL in 1999.

Pick:
Cincinnati 27
Cleveland 9

FINAL
-------------

New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri

Over/Under: 42
KC: +8.5
NYG: -400
KC: +320

Yawn.

Pick:
NY Giants 31
Kansas City 10

FINAL
-------------

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois

Over/Under: 40.5
CHI: -10.5
DET: +375
CHI: -475

There is NO reason THIS Bears team should be giving 10 1/2 points to the Lions DEAR GOD. Is Vegas trying to lure people in for the kill with that -475 ha? The Bears are still an ugly team, even if they've won twice (somehow). This game will be close and it may come down to a fluky play or two.

Pick:
Detroit 21
Chicago 24

FINAL
------------

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland

Over/Under: 36.5
WAS: -7.5
TB: +280
WAS: -340

The Skins? Giving away 7.5 points? Maybe it is because a 2nd year player is starting for the Bucs this week. But the Skins are a train wreck themselves -- especially offensively. THE BUCS WILL COVER. Josh Johnson will confound the Skins with his ability to run.

Pick:
Tampa Bay 16
Washington 13

FINAL
------------

Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lukas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana

Over/Under: 43.5
IND: -10
SEA: +425
IND: -550

And the Peyton train rolls on. Even with Addai in and out of the lineup, with Gonzalez out. With Garçon taking Marv Harrison's role and doing it pretty well thus far. Even with Freeney out defensively, the Colts will still score 30 and win going away.

The Seabags have three running backs and at the same time don't have one. Will Hasselbeck be out? What do they even have? Their FG kicker can't even make a timely kick.

Pick:
Seattle 13
Indianapolis 34

FINAL
------------

New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana

Over/Under: 45
NO: -7
NYJ: +250
NO: -300

WHAT ON EARTH? The Jets GETTING 7 points ha? Brees hasn't been pressured all season. He will be Sunday. Those passing stats and 40.5 PPG numbers will come down -- drastically. The game is still going over, though. Between the pass rush on Brees, the Saints' lack of a consistent running game, the Jets' ABILITY to run the ball and manage the clock with time-consuming possessions, this game should cause Vegas to cough up some big chips ha. Jets will cover, win straight up and the +250 doesn't seem that far-fetched at all. Brees to Colston falls short at the end.

Pick:
NY Jets 28
New Orleans 27

FINAL
------------

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida

Over/Under: 37
PICK 'EM

Agh. But hey, the Bills NEVER traveled to Miami well -- even in the 90s when they were good. They do get Marshawn Lynch back and the Fish are playing their backup QB at this point. The Wildcat Offence should work against a slow Buffalo front 7.

Pick:
Buffalo 26
Miami 17

FINAL
-------------

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California

Over/Under: 36.5
SF: -9.5
STL: +350
SF: -450

The Rams don't warrant a write-up.

Pick:
St. Louis 6
San Francisco 24

FINAL
-------------

Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado

Over/Under: 42
DEN: +3
DAL: -145
DEN: +125

The Cowboys are trying to get on a roll after a non-convincing win vs. Carolina on Monday night. Marion Barber may be out, along with Felix Jones. The Broncos figure to fall back to earth soon enough, however. They are like the '07 Packers -- doing it ALL with smoke and mirrors.

Pick:
Dallas 27
Denver 20

FINAL
-----------

San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Over/Under: 42.5
PIT: -6
SD: +225
PIT: -265

Should be a good game here. The Chargers' weak run defence vs. the Steelers weak running game. The Steelers' passing game against the Chargers' underrated secondary. The Chargers passing game against the injured and hampered Steelers' passing game. The Chargers get Tomlinson back for this game also. Finally, revenge for the Chargers.

Pick:
San Diego 31
Pittsburgh 27

FINAL
-------------

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***

Over/Under: 45.5
MIN: -3.5
GB: +160
MIN: -190

Hopefully, this game lives up to all the hype and billing. All the Favre talk. Peterson should have a game for the ages. This game should be fun to watch. The Vikes will need another Favre come-from-behind drive to win. I think they get it, at home.

Pick:
Green Bay 23
Minnesota 28

FINAL
-------------

Looking to go 12-4 or 13-3 for the first time this year.

As always, WHO CAN PICK 'EM BETTER THAN MR. (ALMOST ALWAYS) WRIGHT???