NFL Week 3 Picks

NFL Week 3 Picks
By Michael D. Wright
9.19.08

Okay, we have some potential high-scoring affairs and a couple of potential snoozers coming up this week. However, I was wrong... DEAD WRONG on a couple of picks last week, so I'll just stick to what I can tell with the information I have as of 4PM EDT.

Week 3

Kansas City vs. Atlanta. Things are ugly for the Chiefs. Larry Johnson is already doing what most people do when they hit a tough stretch in a relationship -- he is ready to bail (see his thinly veiled pleas for a trade on YouTube). The Chiefs are on their third QB of the season, their third DIFFERENT QB starting a game this season. Indeed, the Chiefs had three different QBs play in their Week 2 loss to Oakland alone! The Chiefs have no running game whatsoever, they don't have receivers and they don't have a QB who can get them the ball consistently. Their defense, while not bad, stays on the field far too long to be effective.

The Falcons, on the other hand, can at least run the ball. Matt Ryan hasn't looked bad, since he is being thrown into the fire immediately out of college. The Falcons also still have John Abraham, who can get to the QB and Keith Brooking manning the middle of the field at Mike LB. This could very well be a blowout, but since it is the Falcons, I won't stretch it.

Call:
Kansas City 9
Atlanta 24
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Oakland vs. Buffalo. The Bills are very good. Their 2-0 is not a fluke. The Raiders looked a little better in Week 2 after being blown to dust by the Broncos in Week 1. JaMarcus Russell has a LONG way to go, but the Raiders can definitely run the ball. Fargas seems to get 100 yds every game and Darren McFadden burst out with a 164-yd performance last week. While I do not believe either one of those RBs will approach those numbers vs. Buffalo, I still believe that as long as the offensive line for Oakland can give Russell time, that he can get the ball to Ronald Curry and Javon Walker (provided he plays). The Bills have a pretty decent offense, with Trent Edwards playing well at QB, Marshawn Lynch running the ball and Lee Evans being the deep threat. I see Buffalo ekeing this one out.

Call:
Oakland 27
Buffalo 31
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Tampa Bay vs. Chicago. I still believe the Bears are overrated. Too much has been made of their "win" vs. Indianapolis in Week 1. Manning was rusty and so is the offensive line, missing LT Tony Ugoh and C Jeff Saturday. The Bears have discovered a RB in Matt Forte, but I dare anyone to name their WRs. The Bears play solid defense, don't give up too many points and occasionally score on defense themselves. No wonder, given that Chicago's head coach, Lovie Smith, was an assistant coach under current Tampa Bay defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin. Tampa (Gruden, that is) doesn't know who to make QB week to week. Earnest Graham rushed for over 100 yards last week, but I doubt that he does that this week. WHOEVER the Bucs' QB is, he will have to be precise out there. Ronde Barber is still a ballhawk and Brian Kelly, who gets burned a lot, still makes a lot of plays in run support. Old man Derrick Brooks is still the best LB that the Bucs have and he still flies to the ball. This should be a very good game for those who like defense.

Call:
Tampa Bay 17
Chicago 13
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Carolina vs. Minnesota. Well, the Black Cats get "Steven" Smith back this week. They have hardly missed him, but let's not be frivolous; the Panthers are MUCH BETTER with Smith in the lineup. Jake Delhomme has been accurate and making most of the throws. Muhsin Muhammad being back in Charlotte helps open things up for Smith on the other side. Combine the passing attack with the one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and the Panthers look a lot like the team that went to the Super Bowl in 2003. I know you have the Williams boys in the middle of Minnesota's defense, but both Panthers' backs have the speed to get outside (along with the linemen who can kick out and pull in order to set up blocks out in space).

Minnesota is benching QB Tavaris Jackson. While he could have played better thus far, the fans have been relentless with their (largely) unnecessary boos. Instead of supporting the QB that head coach Brad Childress believes in, they booed him after every incomplete pass, every three and out series and every turnover, even when they were not his fault. Gus Frerotte is no savior, but he doesn't make the number of mental errors that Jackson makes. The Vikings also have a potent running game, second to the Giants' in caliber. Adrian Peterson is questionable as of 4 PM EDT on Friday. Chester Taylor, while a 1,200+ back himself, is no A.D. Could be a long day for Minny if the Panthers come out guns ablaze.

Call:
Carolina 35
Minnesota 24
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Miami vs. New England. Does the other shoe finally drop on the Patriots this week? Nah (as much as I would like for it to do so). Cassel doesn't make mistakes. Their offense goes as WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker go. RB Laurence Maroney isn't a game-changer, because he doesn't get enough touches to do so. RB Kevin Faulk is the ex-factor in this game. Miami does not have a single solitary soul who can cover him in space. While the Patriots' defense is aging and creaky, they seem to find a way to get it done.

Miami is still atrocious, but most people would agree that this was going to be a rebuilding year for the Dolphins, with the expectation of only winning 3-5 games as a projected outcome. They don't do anything well at this point.

Call:
Miami 6
New England 28
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Cincinnati vs. New York Giants. The Bengals are the worst team in the AFC. And that is a shame, given the amount of talent they have. I believe that's what gets them this ranking. Oakland, Kansas City and Miami are all in rebuild mode, while the Bengals are proving the the New York Knicks aren't the only professional sports team that can have boatloads of talent and not win.

The Giants will get after QB Carson Palmer all day, force a couple of INTs and rack up about a half dozen sacks, which is what they do every other week or so. The Bengals' defense is a sick joke as well. With the Giants possessing the best running game in the NFC, if not the entire NFL, this could get out of hand early.

Call:
Cincinnati 10
NY Giants 41
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Houston vs. Tennessee. Hmmmm... old Oilers that moved from Houston to new Houston franchise. I think Week 1 was a fluke for the Texans. They are not a bad team at all, and Pittsburgh, with their smoke and mirrors, aren't as good as that Week 1 beatdown vs. Houston made them look. Tennessee plays great defense and aside from QB Vince Young's injuries and off-the-field woes, the Titans are very good. I look for a breakout game for QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson, though. Johnson should have a field day vs. the Titans' CBs, unless DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch spend all day in the Texans' backfield. They are a formidable duo, but we will definitely see what's really good with both teams after this one. I have it as a nailbiter.

Call:
Houston 27
Tennessee 25 (2 pt. conversion no good)
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Arizona vs. Washington. People ask if the Cardinals are for real. I say they are. They would've made the playoffs if they didn't have that overrated CAREER BACKUP by the name of Matt Leinart in there blowing close games. QB Kurt Warner isn't what he once was with the Rams, but he still gets it done (see his last 10 games dating back to last season). With WRs Anquan Boldin (FROM?!?!) and Larry Fitzgerald putting up Pro Bowl numbers perennially, you just need a QB who can get the ball to them. Warner does that. RB Edgerrin James gets his yards here and there and will end up with about 1,200 "quiet" yards this year. The real eye-opener for the Cards is how TOUCH they are on defense. DT Darnell Dockett (FROM?!?!), LB Karlos Dansby and CBs Antrel Rolle (FROM?!?! The U.) and Adrian Wilson (FROM?!?! High Point, NC!) they are not a mirage.

The Redskins, even after their "fortunate win" vs. a beat up New Orleans team last week are still going to be bad for the first half of the season. QB Jason Campbell and RB Clinton Portis will be feeling some serious pains on Monday. Indeed, Portis got into it with a local Washington, DC sports talk guy this week. Portis is already looking like a wounded lion, then he unleashes on this radio guy. Hmmm.

Call:
Arizona 38
Washington 28
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Detroit vs. San Francisco. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...

Call:
Detroit 17
San Francisco 12
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St. Louis vs. Seattle. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ... (aren't all the NFC West teams aside from Arizona terrible?)

Call:
St. Louis ZZZ
Seattle ZZZ

Nah,

St. Louis 17
Seattle 21
---

New Orleans vs. Denver. I don't know to make of QB Jay Cutler. I still think he's overrated. No one outside of Denver can name their WRs. I only know their names because I follow all the teams. They are very good, but the Broncos' change in philosophy from running the ball 60% of the time has been overhauled. Now they are passing it about 65% of the time. Hey, it's working for them. Why change?

The Saints are beat up in their secondary. They are also missing WR Marques Colston, who took a helmet to the forearm after making a catch in front of CB Ronde Barber in Week 1. QB Drew Brees still has weapons in Shockey and Henderson, as well as Reggie Bush out in space, but this is a tough game to pick.

I think the Broncos showed more moxie in "beating" San Diego in Week 2 (even though Ed Hochuli, my favorite referee, gave them the game) than New Orleans did in losing to Washington in Week 2. I give the slight edge to Denver.

Call:
New Orleans 34
Denver 38
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Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia. The Battle For Pennsylvania? I don't think the Eagles are that good. They are a game or two better than I picked them originally (6-10), but Dallas' defense isn't that good, so those 37 they hung on the Cowboys are rather empty in the grand scheme of things. If they can put up HALF of that vs. the Steelers, I'd be convinced. As for right now, two costly sacks and a killer fumble by McNabb vs. Dallas shows that most leopards cannot change their spots. Add in a couple of his patented skip-passes that bounce 5 feet in front of an open receiver and you have a LONG day for Iggles fans.

Call:
Pittsburgh 31
Philadelphia 21
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Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis. This is the game I want to see. The Jaguars usually give Peyton Manning fits. But losing DT Marcus Stroud to Buffalo has set the Jags' defense back a step or two. They're above average, but they rarely make big plays. They are more of a bend-but-don't break defense. Manning and the Colts' offense should be better in tune for this game. The first two games saw RB Joseph Addai rush for an alarmingly low 64 yards total on nearly 30 carries. That won't get it done, even with Manning at QB. The Colts are about to experience another setback with S Bob Sanders suffering his annual 4-6 week visit to the injury list. In the past, whenever he has been out, the Colts' defense looks like toy soldiers. Given that the Jaguwires throw RBs Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew and FB Greg Jones (remember Dexter Reid, Aug. 30, 2003 vs. FSU LOL -- look it up on YouTube) at you and it could be a very long day for the Colts. Since the Jags don't score much and Garrard has thrown the same number of INTs this year (3) as he did all of last year, it's safe to say that these aren't the Jags from last year. I still have the Colts winning somehow in the end. But it will be close.

Call:
Jacksonville 24
Indianapolis 28
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Cleveland vs. Baltimore. On paper, the Browns are much better than the Ravens. Inside my TV set, they look awful. How can this be? They have Jamal Lewis running the ball. They have QB Derek Anderson getting the ball to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon "Butterfingers" Edwards, who I swear is related to Kwame Brown. I don't get it. The Ravens are starting a rookie QB in Joe Flacco (FROM?!?! Delaware Blue Hens!) and Willis McGahee has been out. The defense is old and not as formidable as they were from 1999-2005. They are still good, though. If they bring enough heat to Anderson and force him to make bad throws, Ed Reed could have a field day at safety, so could CB Samari Rolle (FROM?!?!?!)

Call:
Cleveland 23
Baltimore 28
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Dallas vs. Green Bay. We will see what Aaron Rodgers is made of in this game. Again, Dallas' defense is overrated. Their offense is NOT, however. Rodgers should be able to get the ball to his WRs and has to hope that RB Ryan Grant is 100%. The Cowboys can blow anyone out of any game on the strength of their offense alone. It will be important for the Packers to establish the run, because the Cowboys have a bona fide BEAST in Marion Barber back there, along with rookie Felix Jones.

Matchup to watch: WR Terrell Owens vs. CBs Al Harris and/or Charles Woodson. Harris usually plays Owens, but Owens moves to both sides of the field. Whether Harris shifts with him remains to be seen. I don't see either one of them stopping Owens, however.

Add to that, the Cowboys' running game vs. an average Packer defense...

Dallas 34
Green Bay 28
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New York Jets vs. San Diego. The Chargers should very well be 2-0. A fluke play at the end of Week 1 vs. Carolina and Ed Hochuli's Broncos getting new life to score at the last second in Week 2 is the only difference between them being a 2-0 and 0-2 team. The Jets aren't very good. Whether they come on late in the season remains to be seen, but if they were unable to muster more than 10 points vs. the Patriots, they'll be hard-pressed to do anything more vs. the Chargers.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson has been slowed by a toe, OLB Shawne Merriman is out for the year and the defense looked discombobulated vs. Denver. I expect that to change with the Jets. Although the Jets have decent WRs in Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles, they don't have favorable matchups vs. CBs Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie. If the Jets WRs aren't open, QB Brett Favre will DEFINITELY try to force it in. I see him throwing at least 2 INTs in this game, breaking the Jets' collective backs.

Call:
NY Jets 17
San Diego 38

Feel free to comment here up through Monday Night and check back to see how my picks turned out in Week 3!