NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 5 Picks
Michael D. Wright
10.4.08

OK, so I am hovering around 55% on my picks this year. That is a departure from the near 75% that I usually have every year. YES, 75%. So instead of thinking I am losing it, I'd like to credit the parity within the league and the MONSTROSITY called Injured Reserve. I am waiting until the very last minute to post this, because too many pivotal players are game-time decisions for tomorrow's games (both for the sake of these picks and FANTASY FOOTBALL...)

Alright, without all the balderdash, now to the picks...

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
1PM

The Bears SHOULD win this handily, but you just never know. They are the 2008 version of the old Giants; playing down to the level of their competition one week and the next, beating one of the better teams in the NFL. I honestly do not know what to make of them right now. Their defense could not stop Philadelphia down the stretch last week, and the running game was stifled for once - forcing Kyle Orton to "win" the game for the Bears. Surprisingly, he did it, versus a very game Iggles defense (although staying in the no-huddle for much of the first half was the key to slowing down defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's blitz schemes). The Lions are an enigma. They really should not be 0-3. But hey, it is what it is. Matt Millen is gone, so the players better be on their Ps and Qs the rest of the way, or they'll be gone. WR Calvin Johnson SHOULD have a big game even with Peanut Tillman across from him. There is no way the Bears can shut down both Johnson and WR Roy Williams. This should be a good, close game, but the Bears SHOULD win it late with a defensive stand as Jon Kitna does what he does...

Call:
Chicago 27
Detroit 23
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
1 PM

The Falcons aren't as bad as people thought they would be, nor are the Packers. For that matter, these teams are pretty evenly matched, regardless of Rodgers' status heading into the game. If Rodgers does not play, both teams would be starting a rookie QB. Up and down the depth chart, it's an even draw. I will say that the Packers' defense makes a few more plays than the Falcons' does. However, the Falcons have not been blown away but once thus far. I figured them to be odds on the worst team in the NFL going into the season. Who really knows? If Michael Turner gets his touches and puts up numbers like he did in Week 1 (which will help my fantasy), the Falcons could "steal" this one. I believe it will be close.

Call:
Atlanta 34
Green Bay 31
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San Diego (Super) Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami, Florida
1PM

The Chargers are primed and ready to go on their annual five-to-seven game winning streak. It starts right here against the Dolphins. Plus, it is time for Tomlinson to have one of his patented 27 rush, 210 yards, 3 TD, 8 rec, 86 yard, TD, TD pass games. I feel it in my bones. The Dolphins will be clinging to what they did to New England as a source of motivation after this one.

Call:
San Diego 42
Miami 17
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Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium at the New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
1 PM

The Seahawks have a bunch of gimpy WRs, a suspect running game, which will not do much against the NFC's best defense, a QB whose back feels like mine felt a month ago -- and a defense that has been unable to slow down SAN FRANCISCO. I never predict the Giants to blow teams out unless they are playing the absolute worst team in the NFL (Rams, Week 2). The Seabags aren't THAT bad, but the Giants are the best team in the NFL and will play like it.

R.I.P. Dick Lynch. TRUE Giants fans know him well.

Call:
Seattle 16
NY Giants 38
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Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
1PM

The Redskins are winning a lot of people over. I am not sold, yet. I moved them near the top of my Power Rankings earlier this week. If they win this one, I will be sold (but still not shaken, since the Giants have their number). If Brian Westbrook cannot go, the Eagles are in trouble. Donovan McNabb doesn't run anymore, and that kills the Iggles (see: Week 4 Goal Line stand by the Bears) in situations where they used to simply perplex opposing defenses/defensive coordinators. For the fourth straight year, and 13th out of the last 14th year, the Eagles have NO WRs, but DeSean Jackson, should he cease the bonehead mistakes that have contributed to two losses already this year, MIGHT be a playmaker for them.

QB Jason Campbell is smart. He has grasped Jim Zorn's version of the West Coast offense already. However, the truest test of that knowledge is against a great defense. He failed miserably against the Giants' defense, and the Iggles' defense ISN'T far behind. We will know a lot more after this game. Clinton Portis MUST get more than 80 yards for the Redskins to stay in this game.

Call:
Washington 31
Philadelphia 27
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
1 PM

The Chiefs are looking to build upon (lol -- see Herm Edwards' post-game pep talk) their win against the Broncos last week. Stunning, indeed, but the Panthers are on a MISSION this year. I don't think this game will be close. WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Steven Smith cannot be stopped.

Call:
Kansas City 13
Carolina 34
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Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
1PM

The Titans are arguably the best team in the AFC. They have the best defense, the Ravens are right there. However, the Titans can consistently move the ball offensively. QB Kerry Collins is no star, but he doesn't kill the Titans, either. RB Chris Johnson offers a change of pace from LenDale White. The Titans are LEGIT on both sides of the ball.

The Ravens feature their stalwart defense, which is perennially in the Top 5 in the NFL and usually first or second in the AFC since 2000. This year is no different. What they DO have, finally, is a playmaker at QB. Too bad he cannot do it for four quarters. Joe Flacco looked pretty good against the Steelers in the first half Monday. However, in the second half, he could not evade the pressure nor the subsequent mistakes they forced him into. RB Willis McGahee will need to gain 100 yards. Given that he is horribly out of shape, and the Titans' defense being what it is, I do NOT see that happening, nor do I see the Ravens winning. Coming off a short week does not help, either.

Call:
Tennessee 24
Baltimore 13
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
1PM

The Texans begin a four-game homestand. This should improve their play and their record. I think the Colts, coming off their bye week, will play better -- however, the Texans will, also. I am picking an upset here, and with no real justification why LOL

Call:
Indianapolis 27
Houston 28
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos
Invesco Field at Mile High
Denver, Colorado
4:05PM

Call me crazy, but I said what I said about Denver before the season began for a reason. I believe they are closer to the way they played last week vs. KC than they appeared vs. SD. And yes, I know I have flip-flopped on them more than a presidential candidate, but I am just not convinced. With a defense that would make Jim Mora go into one of his legendary rants, how CAN you be?

Tampa Bay has been playing with the house's money of late. Brian Griese has hoisted over 100 passes the past two games and thrown many passes up for grabs, resulting in several INTs, however, they manage to win. I think they will do it again. Quietly, Earnest Graham, who I have viewed as overrated since he (somehow) gained 100 yds against my Florida State Seminoles back in college several years ago, keeps getting it done. He's had 100 yds these past two games, also, not surprisingly. The Broncos cannot stop the run nor get to the QB. Too bad for Champ Bailey and D. Foxworth, huh?

Call:
Tampa Bay 35
Denver 31
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys
Texas Stadium
Irving, Texas
4:15PM

Dallas will either come out like gangbusters and put the Bengals away early, or this will be a carryover from last week's loss to Washington. If QB Carson Palmer cannot go for the Bengals (game-time decision?), then everything I am about to say is irrelevant.

WR Ocho Cinco pledged to have a breakout game vs. Dallas. You know what? He CAN do it. The Dallas defense is strong up front, but their secondary is full of holes, despite high draft picks and free agent acquisitions. CB Terrence Newman looks like he is scared to touch anyone, S Roy Williams looks 38, not 28 back there. Ironically, their only real playmaker is CB Adam Don't-Call-Me-Pacman-Anymore Jones. He has no INTs yet.

QB Tony Romo should have a pretty easy day against one of the league's worst defenses. However, the Bengals played well versus the Giants in Week 3, and the Giants have one of the NFL's best offensive lines. Could be interesting in Texas!

Call:
Cincinnati 31
Dallas 37
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Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
4:15PM

The Cards are coming off two tough losses, but they've both been on the road. They play infinitely better at home. We will see if the Bills travel well, but I do not believe they will -- not in this case, even though the Cards will be missing WR Anquan Boldin, who is recovering from a cheap shot from one of the Jets' sucker defensive backs. They still have plenty of firepower.

However, if Kurt Warner coughs up the ball as he did vs. the Jets (56 pts to a below-average team???) then all bets are off.

Call:
Buffalo 24
Arizona 28
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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
4:15PM

These two teams are evenly matched, now that Tom Brady is injured. Scoff if you will, but the Pats aren't intimidating anymore with that aging defense. The 49ers were able to run the ball well against better defenses (Seattle) and should be able to do the same vs. NE.

However, this team goes, ultimately, as J.T. O'Sullivan goes. Imagine that. J.T. O'Sullivan???

Call:
New England 13
San Francisco 17
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
8:15PM

There is one thing certain about this game. I AM SICK AND TIRED OF SEEING THE PITTSBURGH STEELERS IN PRIMETIME. Why are they featured more than the teams that were in the Super Bowl? I hate watching them play when healthy, and they are missing several key players (RB Willie Parker, T Kendall Simmons, rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall) and others are nicked up (QB Ben Roethlisberger), along with the obvious hole that Alan Faneca left on the offensive line. Without those players, the Steelers look verrrrrrrrry average on offense. The glaring lack of real playmakers (Santonio Holmes is a deep threat ONLY right now, and without time, Roethlisberg won't be able to get the ball to him) and Hines Ward, who I hate -- always have -- will play a bigger role. However, without the deep threat, and no running game, the Steelers are in trouble.

The Jagwires aren't playing great, as Dave Garrard has already thrown as many INTs (3) as he did all of last year. I think they will win this game solely on the strength of their running game with Fred Taylor, Greg Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Call:
Pittsburgh 17
Jacksonville 30
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Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
8:30PM (Monday Night Football)

No one knows what the Vikings' plan is. Not even head coach Brad Childress. Their puzzling change at QB will not help things, since Gus Frerotte is no better than Tavaris Jackson at this point. Face it, this team goes as Adrian Peterson goes. If he can run freely for more than 5 yards per carry, they win, if not, the QB has to do too much, and without any WRs worth mentioning, that is asking ALOT.

The Vikings' defense is still strong with the Williams DTs, but outside of that and CB Antoine Winfield, there aren't many playmakers out there. LB EJ Henderson is a beast, but he will have his hands full having to keep up with Reggie Bush in space. I think the Saints will pull this out, but it will be close.

Call:
Minnesota 17
New Orleans 21
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Summary coming on Tuesday.