NFL Week 11 Picks: Express Edition

NFL Week 11 Picks: Express Edition
M.D. Wright
11.12.08

The NFL goes to Thursday Night games at this time of the year, so I have to get my picks out three days earlier. This, of course, increases my likelihood of being erroneous. You don't know who is injured, who's practicing all week, and how that will ultimately affect the games. However, I'm going to give it a go. I have to finish this season strong. My goal is to pick 'em at a .667 clip this year, YE DIIIIIG???

Let's do it.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
*Thursday*

OK, so the Vegas line is NE (-3). Whatever. The Patriots aren't convincing with that 6-3 record. The Jets have been stomping teams even when the game has been close (except their losses, in which they've looked atrocious). That should make Jets' fans nervous, except they're already Nervous Nellies by nature.

The Patriots look like a 40 & Over League at the Y on defense. The Jets run the ball very well and play great defense. I'm picking them, because as I've been saying lately: NEW YORK SPORTS 2008-2009 = COMPLETE DOMINATION.

Call:
NY Jets 24
New England 17
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Denver Broncos vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia

The Broncos are going to get killed the rest of this season with that sieve of a defense. Cutler can't win games alone. They got by last week because the Browns are a weekly Choke-In-Waiting.

The Falcons are for real. Michael Turner should have a FIELD DAY (at least he better, for fantasy purposes) and so should Roddy White (for the same reason hah). Who is going to stop either one of them? ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?!?!

Call:
Denver 20
Atlanta 31
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati, Ohio

The Iggles have proven they cannot get it done in the NFC East. They don't run the ball well enough, and Donovan McNabb just isn't clutch anymore (arguable if he ever was, with his skip-hop throws 3 yards short of the WR). They will handle the Bengals, though. They've put up 40+ points against the sorry teams they've played this year.

Call:
Philadelphia 41
Cincinnati 24
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Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin

The Bears are still solid, but their defense isn't as good as its reputation has been. The Packers get a lot of INTs/Returned INTs for TDs, but otherwise, they don't scare you on either side of the ball. HOWEVER, Kyle Orton has been a stabilizing force for the Bears' offense and even Rex Grossman played semi-decently vs. Tennessee. Matt Forte will get his 100 yards.

Call:
Chicago 17
Green Bay 13
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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana

I hereby give up on the Texans.
Plus, the Colts know they pretty much have to win out in order to ensure that they make the playoffs. They don't HAVE to, but they are going to play like it, while we will all be at home wondering when 1) Andre Johnson is going to skip town 2) Steve Slaton is going to go off in Fantasy after everyone who picked him up TRADES him and 3) We will see Sage-copter again lmao. The Colts' defense is BACK, BTW.

Call:
Houston 14
Indianapolis 31
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New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri

The Saints COULD lose this game. The Chiefs have been playing very inspired football of late. This is my upset special of the week. Herm Edwards once again proved last week that he plays to win the game, and they will do that this Sunday.

Call:
New Orleans 23
Kansas City 27
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Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami, Florida

The Raiders will leave Miami with a tan, a few skrippas and CLAWS in their backs from the Wildcat offense (and less than 150 yards of their own... again. hah.)

Call:
Oakland 2
Miami 17
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Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium at the New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey

I will admit, I am nervous about this game. Not because of the Ravens' defense; because we've played a half dozen good-to-great ones this season thus far. It's because they have been scoring roughly 35 PPG in the past four weeks -- something that is UNHEARD OF from them. Despite having the stingiest run defense in the NFL, no one has been able to, nor CAN stop the Giants from running it. Even if not for the 160 yards per game that they are accustomed to, they will run it for the sake of running it and put a stranglehold on the time of possession (Giants in TOP = COMPLETE DOMINATION).

Flacco will make mistakes and it will be the difference in the game. But if Ray Rice plays and they break out the Wildcat offense with Troy Smith, watch out. The Giants' defense is particularly vulnerable when the front four cannot get to the QB and they have to blitz, leaving the secondary on islands (although they are BETTER than the haters suggest). The real nervous point is the average-speed LBs who have to cover downfield. Antonio Pierce gets beat deep quite a bit by very good TEs. The Ravens might have something in the works, using Todd Heap. This is going to be a good game. But the Giants will pull it out due to their poise, moxie, experience and the 12th man in East Rutherford.

Call:
Baltimore 17
NY Giants 30
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida

The Bucs are the most boring team to watch in the NFL. I almost wonder how they win. Adrian Peterson is going to carry the Vikes for the rest of the season. He's going to possibly broach his single-game rushing record and YES I'm saying that vs. Tampa's defense.

Call:
Minnesota 20
Tampa Bay 17
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Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina

0-16, B!!! Jake Delhomme sucks once a month, but he got that out of the way last week.

Call:
Detroit -5
Carolina 34
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St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California

This game does not warrant mentioning. Neither team has players you even want to see play. However, Head Coach Mike Singletary has the Niners playing hard. That is SOMEWHAT palpable. The Rams have mailed it in after two good games -- they've played two STINKERS in a row.

Call:
St. Louis 6
San Francisco 24
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington

OK. The Cards do not possess a killer instinct yet. They commit too many silly penalties and turnovers. However, these ARE like your Father's Seabags...

Call:
Arizona 41
Seattle 8
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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida

If the Jags are EVER going to put a two-game winning streak together, they MUST do it now. They will play their beset game Sunday, while the Titans will finally suffer that loss they've been flirting with the past three weeks.

Call:
Tennessee 13
Jacksonville 16
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San Diego Not-So-Super Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

The Chargers stink on defense. Offensively, they can compete with anyone. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in QB Rating, ya know...

However, Tomlinson is only ever going to reach 85% this season with that toe. I just hope he isn't like Deion Sanders after he had turf toe (at the same age, virtually) in 1998. Now that I mention it, the guy who ran by Prime on that play where he injured his toe is dropping passes more often than Braylon Edwards right now. I'll let you look up who that guy is who basically sent Deion's career slowly spiraling downward after a meteoric rise from 1989-1998.

Anyway. The Steelers are smarting (as Hubie Brown would say). The Chargers, along with their ability to seize the AFC West lead and having a chip on their shoulder, will pull this out.

Call:
San Diego 38
Pittsburgh 24
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
*SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL*

The Cowboys will come out with the full arsenal after their bye week. The Redskins have been reeling of late. Clinton Portis lost his lead in the NFL in rushing and I think he's peaked, as far as great games go this season. He may be in better shape, but I don't see Portis being able to keep up this pace, especially since teams have figured out Jason Campbell's tendencies.

I hate both teams, so I have no bent when it comes to the prediction. I just think Dallas has more to prove and are eager to prove it.

Call:
Dallas 31
Washington 23
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Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
*Monday Night Football*

Why is this game on Monday Night? Jamal Lewis already said the Browns have mailed in their season... Buffalo is fighting for their playoff life here.

Call:
Cleveland 17
Buffalo 31
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More later...