NFL Week 16 Picks: The Bowling Green/Lexington Avenue Local Edition

NFL Week 16 Picks: The Bowling Green/Lexington Avenue Local Edition
M.D. Wright
12.18.08

I darn near forgot to do my picks. These Thursday games throw me off, even though I have known they were scheduled since April. Sue me.

We have HUGE games this weekend. Not just because the 1-2 teams in both conferences are playing each other -- and the 2 teams are both going to the 1 teams' home stadiums. This is for all the chips. The winner takes all.

However, the other games have playoff implications and the teams who aren't number 1 seeds should NOT be overlooked. There are three legitimate teams that aren't top 2 seeds that have serious shots to make it to the Super Bowl.

BTW, I am rolling out the official spreads and over/unders from Vegas for each game, as I do annually in the playoffs -- a couple of weeks early.

With that, let's commence...

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
*THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL*
(IND -6)
(O/U 44)

The Colts look to secure a playoff berth with a win tonight. The Jags are done. They are a mess. However, the Colts will not have WR Marvin Harrison tonight. No matter. They win. Easily.

Call:
Indianapolis 31
Jacksonville 14
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys
Texas Stadium
Irving, Texas
*SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL*
(DAL -4)
(O/U 39.5)

This is a HUGE game for both teams. Suddenly, after forfeiting a chance at the AFC North title and losing to PIT, BAL is in a must-win situation. There are three other teams in the AFC with 9-5 records. Knowing before the game whether or not IND has sewn up their playoff berth, the Ravens will know if they are one of at least four teams angling for the last wild card playoff berth.

Dallas is setting themselves up with their contrived drama (as Jerry Jones readily admits) to have the media in their faces regardless of the outcome. If they win, they're in the catbird seat to secure the 5 seed in the playoff hunt. If they lose, questions will abound and they could miss the playoffs altogether. This is not going to be an easy game for either.

DeMarcus Ware is an X-factor. Can the Ravens protect QB Joe Flacco? For the most part, they should. However, it is not whether or not whether Ware WILL get sacks, but WHEN they will occur and how directly will they affect the game. The Ravens will employ more sets with Ray Rice in the backfield and the Cowboys do not have Marion Barber 100% healthy. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis will cause problems for QB Tony Romo. I am going with BAL here.

Call:
Baltimore 27
Dallas 21
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New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
(NO -7)
(O/U 50.5)

Dear god. The Saints should win this easily, considering the Lions do not defend the pass well at all. However, RB Reggie Bush is out for the season. No matter. The Saints have been using Pierre Thomas with great results of late. This should be a laugher.

Call:
New Orleans 38
Detroit 20
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
*GAME OF THE WEEK, PT. I*
(PIT -1.5)
(O/U 34)

Two titans facing off. However, this isn't going to be that big of a pick for me. DT Albert Haynesworth's absence is going to hurt TEN. As well as DE Kyle Vanden Bosch's. The Titans will run the ball, but the pressure PIT brings with OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley (along with the secondary play led by Troy Polamalu and the defencive line led by NT Casey Hampton) and QB Kerry Collins is in for a long day. TEN brings pressure and has solid players in MLB Keith Bulluck and CB Courtland Finnegan, but QB Ben Roethlisberger can move. Along with RB Willie Parker getting healthy at the right time, I am taking PIT in this one.

Call:
Pittsburgh 20
Tennessee 10
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San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
(SF -5.5)
(O/U 43.5)

ZZZZZZZZZZZZ... plenty of scoring, but who will care?

Call:
San Francisco 31
St. Louis 20
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium
Cleveland, Ohio
(CLE -2.5)
(O/U 32)

Dear god.

Call:
Cincinnati 16
Cleveland 10
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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
(MIA -4)
(O/U 40)

The Dolphins can take a huge step toward their quest to go from worst team in the NFL in 2007 (1-15) to winning the AFC East. It is very much feasible if they win this game. Following this game, they set off to play the New York Football Jets to possibly decide the division in Week 17. However, the Chiefs are no slouches. They just don't close games out. The Fish will pull this out.

Call:
Miami 23
Kansas City 17
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Arizona Cardinals vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
(NE -7.5)
(O/U 44.5)

Usually, I don't take the Cards on the road, but I think they bounce back from two uninspired games in a row. The Patriots are banged up across the board and most IMPORTANTLY -- aren't talented enough in the secondary to stop the Warner to Boldin/Fitzgerald/Breaston attack. I am picking this is a "mild" upset for ARZ.

Call:
Arizona 37
New England 27
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San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
(TB -3.5)
(O/U 42.5)

The Chargers are desparate. The Bucs are hurting. QB Jeff Garcia may not play and quite frankly, combined with the fact that the Chargers need to win and are going to be watching to see if DEN loses to BUF -- I am taking SD. Look for RB LaDainian Tomlinson to bounce back from a... well, lackluster SEASON, not just a couple of games.

Call:
San Diego 30
Tampa Bay 21
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Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders
McAfee Coliseum
Oakland, California
(HOU -7)
(O/U 44)

The Texans are on fire. Too little, too late, though. The Raiders have the best CB in the NFL in Nnamdi Asomugha and no one knows him. He won't slow WR Andre Johnson down. And the Raiders do not stuff the run well. RB Steve Slaton will have a field day.

Call:
Houston 34
Oakland 13
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New York Football Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
(NYJ -4)
(O/U 44)

The Jets do not travel well going west, but the Seabags are so bad...
As long as they give the rock to RB Thomas Jones and QB Brett Favre doesn't throw it away, the Jets will win. But they will make it interesting.

Call:
NY Jets 20
Seattle 14
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Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
(DEN -6.5)
(O/U 45)

I had pronounced the Bills dead, but they played with fight at NYJ last week. Plus, DEN is so schizophrenic week in and week out. They do not stop the run well. Even with QB JP Losman in the huddle, BUF SHOULD win this by handing the ball to RB Marshawn Lynch.

Call:
Buffalo 24
Denver 20
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
(MIN -3.5)
(O/U 43)

I don't know why MIN is favored here. However, I am taking Matty Ice, Michael "The Burner" Turner and "Rowdy" Roddy White. Vikes' DT Pat Williams is out, and while it is worth noting, he's not the entire defensive line. I still believe the Falcons will be able to run the ball effectively. So will RB Adrian Peterson. It will come down to QB play, and despite his 11-17/4 TD performance last week, QB Tarvaris Jackson does not impress me yet. QB Matt Ryan does. Fulcons win.

Call:
Atlanta 27
Minnesota 23
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
(PHI -5)
(O/U 38.5)

This game looked huge four weeks ago. Now, it doesn't. It's only big for PHI. Warshington is DONE.

Call:
Philadelphia 30
Washington 17
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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium at The New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
*GAME OF THE WEEK, PT. II*
*SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL*
(NYG -3)
(O/U 37.5)

Snow+win+Brandon Jacobs starting = Classic Giants Football. As good as the Panthers have been of late, especially with their running game, they DO still have QB Jake Delhomme under center. With that weather, the Panthers can't be totally confident. It should be noted that DT Fred Robbins did not play Sunday vs. Dallas. He is pivotal to the Giants' run defense. The Panthers will not be mustering 300, 200 or 150 yards against the Giants' defence. Jake Delhomme will have to beat them with his arm -- and as great as WR Steve Smith is and as steady as WR Muhsin Muhammad is, I do not need it happening. Close game.

Call:
Carolina 17
NY Giants 23
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
(CHI -4)
(O/U 41)

Who cares? Anyway, for old times' sake -- the oldest rivalry in the NFL (putting on the vintage John Facenda voice from NFL Films)

"As we renewwwww the old rivalray... the Greeeeeeen Baaaaaay PACKUZZZZZ versus the Chicaaaagoooo Buzzzzzz"

Green Bay's dead. Chicago's playing for their playoff lives. You do the math.

Call:
Green Bay 24
Chicago 28
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...you already know