NFL Week 18/Wild Card Weekend Picks

NFL Week 18/Wild Card Weekend Picks
M.D. Wright
1.1.09

I will do my best to be more thorough, since we only have four games this weekend. NO MORE LOCAL COVERAGE! These are going to be four great games. I don't know how ANYONE thinks these guys in the NFL don't play for keeps.

SATURDAY GAMES

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Line: ATL -2.5
Over/Under: 51

Football is all about matchups. The Cardinals' lackadaisical finish to the 2008 season notwithstanding, they are still a dangerous team. They employ a Run-and-Shoot type offence (which has only been good for regular season success and postseason collapses/blown leads -- keep this in mind as well) with stud WRs Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (FROM?!) and Steve Breaston. One wrinkle that the Cards figure to throw at the Fulcons is the running game; which has been absent of late -- featuring RBs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower. The Cards' offencive line is very good at pass blocking. They have not opened many holes for the running game, however. The Fulcons will have to play the Cards straight up and not drop 8 guys into coverage half the game.

The Fulcons have a great running game with RB Michael Turner, who finished second in the NFL with 1,700 rushing yards and second in rushing TDs. He gives stability to the Fulcons' offence and takes pressure off rookie QB Matt Ryan, who has time to make his reads and complete good passes. Consequently, WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins have had breakout/improved years, respectively.

The real test will be the Cards' offencive line and blocking DE John Abraham. The Fulcons like to move Abraham from RE to LE, so it will be incumbent upon the Cards to chip him and prevent Abraham from hitting Warner, who is fumble-prone. If the Fulcons are unable to get to Warner, this could be a high-scoring game which the Cards could very well pull off (as Vegas does not believe in them -- being dogs at home).

Call:
Atlanta 30
Arizona 34
---

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
Line: Pick 'em (Even)
Over/Under: 51

Vegas loves 51 this Saturday. However, this game is a push with good reason: the Colts barely beat the Chargers the first time they played -- and the Chargers were not playing great football at the time. Both teams are hot right now. They match up well.

The Chargers' 3-4 defence has given QB Peyton Manning fits for the past three years. They are the healthiest they have been defencively all year. Sure, the Chargers miss Merriman, but they swarmed and enveloped Jay Cutler all night on Sunday. The Colts are the healthiest they've been on offence, also.

Peyton Manning should be the MVP this year. They not only won nine straight games to finish the season, but they've beaten the top two teams in the AFC, as well as two other playoff teams in the conference (San Diego, Baltimore). Add to that, the win vs. Minnesota earlier in the season (their first, and a comeback win, at that) and you have to recognize the Colts are in this to win it. Nonetheless, this Charger team is the one that probably poses the most serious threat to the Colts' Super Bowl run before it even gets started. The Colts MUST contain TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. Philip Rivers does not make mistakes and LaDainian Tomlinson is going to be close to 90% by game-time. I have been on the Colts' bandwagon all week once I found out about this matchup, but I think the Chargers will be fired up much like they were on Sunday Night. They're trying to avenge all their loses from the regular season during the playoffs much like the Giants did last season (three of the Giants' 4 playoff wins were against teams that had defeated them in the regular season). The Chargers avenged an earlier loss (Ed Hochuli Game) versus Denver and are looking to do the same against the Colts (and potentially, the Steelers the week afterward). See a pattern?

Call:
Indianapolis 28
San Diego 31
---

SUNDAY GAMES

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphin Stadium
Miami, Florida
Line: BAL -3.5
Over/Under: 37.5

The Ravens have momentum, but the Fish do, too. Miamuh is at home, also. I don't think homefield matters as much in this game, however. Although the Ravens' defence is very good, they really do not blitz often. QB Chad Pennington does a great job of getting rid of the ball quickly. The Wildcat offence has flummoxed many a team this year. However, the Ravens beat it earlier this year. I'm going with Vegas on this. The Hanging Chads will play well, but Baltimore has the best defencive player in the NFL (Ed Reed) on the prowl to catch Chad's fluttering passes to Anthony Fasano.

Call:
Baltimore 23
Miami 17
---

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: PHI -3
Over/Under: 41.5

Rarely have I seen the road teams being favored almost unanimously in the opening weekend of wild card weekend. As a matter of fact, if the Colts/Chargers line moves (which it most likely will by Friday night -- where the Chargers may get 2-3 points) ALL FOUR ROAD TEAMS will be favored to win. Yikes. However, the Iggles have caught lightning in a bottle. They got hot against a Giants team coming off a week of tumult, a Dallas team in disarray, Cleveland (yikes) but lost to Washington, which itself has had several bad losses of late. All that adds up to the fact that Philly is wildly inconsistent. They can beat anyone, and lose to anyone. However, that makes them dangerous.

QB Tarvaris Jackson MUST make all the throws and MUST NOT commit a single turnover. That will allow for RB Adrian Peterson (as well as RB Chester Taylor) to gain major yardage against an Iggles' defence that over-pursues on defence at times. There will be cutback lanes for Peterson. The key is no turnovers for MIN. Can the Iggles shut Berrian out? We'll see, I doubt it srsly.

The Iggles' need McNabb to basically play the same way. He cannot skip throws 5 yards short of his receivers, which is his trademark. The Iggles MUST get Brian Westbrook out on the perimeter either with sweeps or toss plays -- or swing/screen passes out in the flat to neutralize the Vikes' defencive tackles. These are all major ifs. The Viking fans will rally behind Jackson and Peterson if they get out early, but if the Vikes have to play from behind early, they are going to be chanting for Gus (which is foolish). I am going to buck the system and take the Vikes at home here -- on the strength of the fact that the Vikes have the personnel to contain Westbrook; given that he is both their "running game" and half of their pass offence. The Iggles do not have what it takes to stop the tandem of Peterson/Taylor AND force Jackson into bad throws. The Iggles will have to pick their poison.

To think, that tie vs. Cincinnati and loss to Washington might very well have the reason they aren't going to Arizona (who they match up better against) as opposed to going to Minneapolis against a team that matches up very well against them.

Call:
Philadelphia 24
Minnesota 28
---

Byes:
AFC
1 Tennessee Titans
2 Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC
1 New York Football Giants
2 Carolina Panthers
Posted by The Professor at 5:22 PM