NFL Week 19 Picks: Divisional Playoff Edition

NFL Week 19 Picks: Divisional Playoff Edition
M.D. Wright
1.8.09

Doing Power Rankings are pointless now, so I'm going to just do the picks for these four GREAT games we have coming up this week.

Remember three things for me in regards to all the "tendencies" people like to bring up here:

1. So what with the weather; these guys are playing for ALL the stakes. No one is going to let weather affect them.

2. Same with the Cardinals in their West to East travails. They will be fine.

3. Who cares about Jim Johnson's defence? They didn't stop Jacobs when he was healthy -- we won. He's healthy for Sunday. Do the math.

With that... let's get it.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
Line: TEN -3
Over/Under: 34.5

On paper, this looks like a mismatch. To me, Baltimore has more going for it than Tennessee does; they're motivated, they have momentum, their running game is doing just as much as Tennessee's will, they have a BETTER QB (I am telling you -- this IS the time when the REAL Kerry Collins rears his ugly head) and an overall better defence. Ed Reed >>> ANYONE Tennessee has back there in their secondary (and that includes Finnegan and Hope).

Albert Haynesworth is going to play, but how fresh is he going to be? Is he out of shape? Still banged up? Will he be effective? We'll see, I doubt it, seriously. Kevin Mawae may play; Kyle Vanden Bosch is not going to be 100%. Getting pressure on Flacco is going to matter. If they can't, he's going to pick them apart. The Titans have average LBs and a pretty active secondary, but even with that, you can be beaten without pressure on the QB.

Ravens get revenge for the ref-aided/bad call on T. Suggs earlier this year.

Call:
Baltimore 17
Tennessee 9
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
Line: CAR -10
Over/Under: 48.5

Please explain to me why the Panthers are 10 point favorites? Dear God. Anyway, as I said before -- throw all that nonsense about traveling east out the window. The Curds already broke a trend last week by running the ball more than they had in three months. It caught the Fulcons off guard and was the difference in the ball game. They won't sneak up on the Black Cats with that running game, but the Panthers aren't all that effective in stopping the run when teams are persistent about it (See Week 16: Giants rushed for 301 yards on Carolina's "vaunted" rush defence). With a shaky QB like Jake Delhomme, I cannot FATHOM why Carolina is favored by so much. Yes, little Stevie Smith and Moose are great, but if Jake isn't effective, THEN what? The Cards shut down Michael Turner last week (better than either guy Carolina has) and Jonathan Stewart has been largely ineffective since Week 12 -- he's done nothing more than spell DeAngelo Williams. The Cards can stop Williams. Can the Curds stop the Traveling Kurts? I doubt it, seriously.

Call:
Arizona 34
Carolina 31
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium at the New Jersey Meadowlands
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 40

The line looks about right, the over/under? I can't tell ya about it. This game can either be in the 30s (total) or high 50s. Who knows? Yes, "they know each other" and all that stuff, but who do the Iggles have to stop Jacobs? The last time he was healthy, the Giants won. PERIOD. At this point, all else being equal (McNabb and Manning, Iggles' LBs and Jints' LBs) and the Giants' offencive and defencive lines having a bit of an edge over the Iggles' that's the difference. Sure, Westbrook MAY get ONE big play (remember, he did not have one in the first matchup, and his two big plays in the 2nd game was the only difference in the 2nd game; even with as poorly as the Giants played). For once, someone is either going to make some money or lose tons with that line if it doesn't move lower to -3. No more pushes!

Call:
Philadelphia 20
NY Giants 24
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San Diego Super Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Line: PIT -6
Over/Under: 37.5

37.5??? They'll be fortunate to get out of the 20s hah. But LaDainian Tomlinson? Stick a fork in him. He's done (in terms of these playoffs). I think Darren Sproles will be able to get on the perimeter and take advantage of Woodley and Harrison (which is why he won DPOY and ONLY why) blitzing every other play. DO NOT underestimate the effect of taking advantage of an overpursuing defence. Sure, S Troy Polamalu seems to be ubiquitous, but c'mon. He can't be there for EVERYTHING. He's no Ed Reed hah. But I think the Chargers get revenge for that 11-10 game eaerlier. They were right there and they're playing MUCH BETTER football now; as opposed to at the time. Whereas PIT has remained consistent (although playing very well). How effective will they be at QB? We'll see. I'm going with the road dogs here. Hah.

Call:
San Diego 16
Pittsbugh 13

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