NFL Week 20: Champeenship Weekend

NFL Week 20: Champeenship Weekend
M.D. Wright
1.17.09

Who knew? Who knew the Giants and Titans would be sitting home and the Cardinals and Eagles would be battling for a championship? The NFL, where (calls that go against you at HOME and your QB sucks playing in the wind) happens.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona
Line: PHI -3.5
Over/Under: 47

Throw out the Thanksgiving game for four reasons: 1) it was a short week, 2) the Cardinals were traveling east, 3) the Cardinals were playing a completely different style of football and 4) the Cards didn't die, so it didn't count.

Again, the Cards went to Philly seemingly thinking they'd just pass the ball and win the game. They didn't seem prepared and with a game plan in place. They were struggling with their identity. The Iggles began their run of playing better football that night (after McNabb had his worst game ever the week before -- something Iggle fans conveniently forget; along with the fact he was unspectacular the rest of the season before that except when they were playing the dregs of the NFL). I have yet to see anyone in the Iggles' secondary who can match up with WR Larry Fitzgerald and if WR Anquan Boldin plays, the Iggles are in trouble. RB Edgerrin James is being given touches (finally) and that forces teams to play the Cards honestly. That means Jim Johnson's patented blitzes will have to be timed properly, because with Fitzgerald, Boldin AND WR Steve Breaston running routes, there will be one-on-one coverage quite often and mismatches that favor the Cardinals in each of those instances.

Many people are blindly picking Philly on the strength of the first game played and that's just foolish. The Cards' defence is active and will take advantage of McNabb's inevitably errant throws. Given that RB Brian Westbrook is nowhere near 100% for the game, I do not see him being a major factor (see last week's game vs. NYG as evidence). I believe the Cards win handily.

Call:
Philadelphia 20
Arizona 35
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AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Line: PIT -6
Over/Under: 34

Two things off the bat: the Steelers have NO BUSINESS being favored by 6 (if at all, given the nature of their wins earlier in the season -- more on that in a second) and this game is DEFINITELY going under.

The Steelers won on a last minute FG by K Jeff Reed that BARELY made it within the uprights in the first meeting. In the second meeting, the Steelers won because of a bogus catch by WR Sanantonio (Santonio) Holmes that was called a touchdown. Whatever. Regardless of that, the Steelers did not win either game in convincing fashion. Given this fact, why are they favored by so many? Also, why are so many people quick to say they are going to win solely because "they won both games and they're at home"? That's lazy. I do not see them winning this game. QB Joe Flacco knows how to get rid of the ball. QB Ben Roethlisberger DOESN'T. The Ravens will definitely get after Roethlisberger all game and harass him into bad throws. The Steelers' WRs know how to find a spot in the zones between the LBs and DBs and sit down, but Roethlisberger will have to be precise in order for the Steelers to take advantange. RB Willie Parker has had two very good games leading up to this one, but I doubt he cracks 75 yards. The Ravens merely need to run the ball to control the clock, not necessarily to break 20, 30 yard runs (which will be there on Woodley's side as he tends to overpursue). It's going to come down to whose back seven can make more plays and create turnovers. And the team with ED REED in its back seven has a better chance of doing that.

Call:
Baltimore 17
Pittsburgh 10
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Baltimore vs. Arizona
Battle of the Birds
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
February 1, 2009
6:26 PM

Ha!