M.D. Wright
11.19.2009
Hit 'n' Run again, let's get right to the picks. I don't have the free time to do this like does ha.
***EDITOR'S NOTE: The picks I like are in BOLD.
Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
***THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 42
CAR: -3.5
MIA: +170
CAR: -200
The Fins need this game to remain in playoff contention. The Panthers need this game to remain in playoff contention. Other than the stakes, please tell me what is interesting about this game? NFL Network has some eyesore games DEAR GOD.
Pick:
Miami 24
Carolina 17
FINAL
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Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
Over/Under: 37.5
DET: -3.5
CLE: +165
DET: -190
Probably a good thing this monstrosity is blacked out. Or... ehhh... BROWNED out.
Pick:
Cleveland 13
Detroit 24
FINAL
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Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
Over/Under: 42.5
JAX: -8.5
BUF: +320
JAX: -400
I'm still trying to figure out how the "Jagwires" are a potential wild card team with only one player on both sides of the ball. However, this line seems about right. The Bills are dead in the water. The only thing that could set this off is the team somehow waking up and playing inspired ball for a new coach (Dick Jauron was fired on Tuesday).
Maurice Jones-Drew should have a day for the ages against this porous and slow defense.
Pick:
Buffalo 10
Jacksonville 23
FINAL
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
Over/Under: 40
KC: +10
PIT: -550
KC: +425
First thing that jumps out to me is the fact that this line is far too high. The Steelers will have to fight to win this one. Their fans don't want to admit that, nor do they like the thought of it, but the Chiefs are somewhat renewed with crybaby Larry Johnson off the team (may very well be the final nail in the coffin his career, given that he's 30 and lost a step).
The Steelers are going into still-hostile Arrowhead and will find this game a lot closer than they'd like.
Pick:
Pittsburgh 20
Kansas City 17
FINAL
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Over/Under: 44
BAL: +1.5
I like this game. I think the Colts can win anywhere, anytime against anyone at this point. The Ravens have stumbled here and there, but still feature a superb offense. They may experience success rushing against the Colts, but the Ravens have had trouble closing games out. The Colts, however, have had two very dramatic comebacks this year and fear no deficits or late-game situations. Even on the road, I'm taking the Colts, the points and the OVER.
Pick:
Indianapolis 31
Baltimore 21
FINAL
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Over/Under: 46
NYG: -6.5
ATL: +255
NYG: -310
Perfect team for the Giants to get off the schnide. They were able to stay home, rest (Tuck), recuperate (Boley, Canty, ROSS) and two weeks to gameplan for Matthew Ice & Co. The Fulcons are down Michael Turner and, along with their other problems (smallish on both sides of the ball -- nightmares going against a punishing offensive line and a swarming front seven) and their notoriously poor travel record, the Giants SHOULD be fine here.
However, keep in mind my rule about the Giants giving more than 5 points. That is, NEVER TAKE THEM in that scenario.
Pick:
Atlanta 23
NY Giants 27
FINAL
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Over/Under: 42
GB: -6.5
SF: +240
GB: -280
Interesting scenario here from a bettor's standpoint. The Niners do not travel outside of the West Coast well at all. They are playing a semi-hot Packers team that is feeling good about itself after nearly shutting out the most powerful rushing attack in the NFC last week. The Packers still don't protect Rodgers, but if they are able to run the ball effectively as they did last week, it may not matter here.
I am just not sold on Alex Smith, especially in Green Bay.
Pick:
San Francisco 24
Green Bay 28
FINAL
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Over/Under: 46
MIN: -10.5
SEA: +425
MIN: -550
I like this, if you are a bettor. The Seabags are a NIGHTMARE. They're going into the loud Metrodome against a Super Bowl contending team. Meanwhile, they (Seabags) are injured up and down and on both sides of the ball. They aren't going to even be able to slow Adrian Peterson down, much less stop him. Brett Favre can lob it all day to Sidney Rice and hit young Percy Harvin in the seam all game. They may score 40.
Pick:
Seattle 17
Minnesota 42
FINAL
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Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Over/Under: 41.5
DAL: -11
WSH: +425
DAL: -550
The Skins are missing Clinton Portis for the 2nd straight game. Tough baskets (or tough yards) for them. Ladell "Tricky" Betts has filled in admirably, but he's not Portis. The Skins actually feature a somewhat formidable defense, so the Cowboys won't run away with this game (nor cover those 11 points they're giving Washington) but the Skins still have problems moving the ball consistently and scoring points with their smallish WRs who never seem to get open (outside of my man 'tana on Go routes at times).
The Cowboys really need Romo to cut out the bonehead mistakes, because there are two things not playing in Dallas' favor in this particular game at this particular time: 1) they usually begin going south at this time of the year, as well as Romo's play and 2) they have struggled with Washington the past few years, even if the Skins have been pedestrian-to-downright atrocious at times throughout that period.
Close game, but give the edge to Dallas late at home. If it were in Landover, the Cowboys would probably lose.
Pick:
Washington 17
Dallas 23
FINAL
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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Over/Under: 51
TB: +11.5
NO: -550
TB: +425
After starting out white hot, the Saints have come back to reality. They're due to start losing every other game at this point. I would go so far as to say this one, but I'll have to think about it as I summarize everything else in this one and decide when I get to the "Pick:" field ha.
Brees has been throwing INTs lately. The Saints let the Rams stick around all game last week and struggled/had referee help and had to rely on a bad throw by Matt Ryan to beat the Falcons. They also saw the Dolphins fall completely apart in the 4th quarter of their game prior to that. Those should've been three losses. The Saints don't run the ball well and honestly they don't stop it that well. Derrick Ward could have a big game. Josh Freeman looks like he's going to be legit. He'll be able to hit some throws to Clayton here and there.
Yeah, this is going to be my upset pick. I don't automatically take the Saints in OVERS anymore, either after last week.
Pick:
New Orleans 24
Tampa Bay 27
FINAL
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Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Edward Jones Dome
St. Louis, Missouri
Over/Under: 46.5
STL: +9
ARZ: -400
STL: +320
Yeah, I know the Rams are playing slightly better and Steven Jackson is a MAYNE, but...
Pick:
Arizona 38
St. Louis 17
FINAL
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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 45
NE: -10.5
NYJ: +425
NE: -550
The spread is too high. The Jets are going to sweep the season series. Forget all that talk about the Patriots being "OD upset" after last week. Whatever. They have no one to be upset with but their own coach for that loss. The Jets thoroughly outplayed them earlier this season and they're going to do it again. I highly doubt the Patriots will be able to do electrify the skies with their offense when they can't stop the run. The Colts barely run the ball, but the Jets are the best in the conference at doing so. Different ballgame.
Pick:
NY Jets 23
New England 20
FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
Over/Under: 36
OAK: +9.5
CIN: -450
OAK: +350
...................................
Pick:
Cincinnati 34
Oakland 6
FINAL
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San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field at Mile High Stadium
Denver, Colorado
Over/Under: 41.5
DEN: +6.5
SD: -270
DEN: +230
The Chargers are taking no shorts (yeah, I went back to the early 90s) and they're on their annual White Hot Streak. The Broncos have a decent team, but their QB has been playing so far over his head all season that it was about time that he came crashing back to normalcy. The Chargers win EASILY on the road.
Pick:
San Diego 30
Denver 21
FINAL
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 45
CHI: +3
PHI: -155
CHI: +135
Perfect lines. The Iggles are not overwhelming by any stretch. They've struggled with the Bears for years, even this stinkpot of a Bears team is going to keep it close. The Iggles struggle to move the ball if they can't hit big plays with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Brian Westbrook may not play anytime soon. As dynamic as McCoy can be, he isn't ready to be an every-down back.
The Bears stink for sure, but I doubt they get blown out here.
Pick:
Philadelphia 23
Chicago 24
FINAL
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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 48
HOU: -4.5
TEN: +180
HOU: -220
This game looks a lot better now on the MNF slate than it did 3-4 weeks ago when Kerry Collins was playing. Vince Young is 3-0 since being reinserted as the starter. I called for this sooner. I figured the Titans would start out slowly, not winless slow, but slowly, because Collins never has back to back good years. Besides, last year was a fluke in every sense -- the way the team started the season with Young was too small of a sample size to bench him, and Collins winning 12 out of 14 was a fluke if I ever saw it. They miss Haynesworth for sure, but with VY and Chris Johnson, they can run the ball very well.
The Texans are going to light them up, however.
Pick:
Tennessee 20
Houston 37
FINAL
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