NFL Week 14 Bettor's Guide

NFL Week 14 Bettor's Guide
M.D. Wright
12.11.09

Arrite, I had to go OT and take care of some family business, on both ends of the emotional spectrum for the past two weeks, but I'm back with the picks. We're in crunch time now and this is when the cream rises to the top -- not only in the NFL but for bettor's and handicappers such as myself. I'm usually batting about .725 this time of the year. YEAH, THAT'S ATS AND NOT SU.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans
Reliant Stadium
Houston, Texas
Over/Under: 44.5
HOU: -6.5
SEA: +240
HOU: -280

The Seabags are a monstrosity. I wonder how they even win games. The Texans' problem is inconsistency, not playmaking ability, that's for sure. They'll win this one easy. Why, you ask? Because they're not in the playoff hunt anymore, so they'll win these games that they would've lost a month ago when they were in contention for a wild card. Kubiak should be fired.

Pick:
Seattle 17
Houston 30

FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Metrodome
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Over/Under: 43.5
MIN: -6.5
CIN: +240
MIN: -280

Not sure why Cincinnati is getting almost 7 points. Before that game Sunday night and consequently losing MLB EJ Henderson (who shouldn't have even been in the game, down 30-17 with 4 minutes remaining), I would've said the Bengals have little shot to go into the dome and beat the Vikes. However, given the aforementioned facts, plus the fact that Adrian Peterson has either a) worn down and/or b) been flat out neutralized against good run defenses this year, I am taking the Bengals to cover, win straight up, their money line AND the OVER. Easiest pick of the week, IMO.

Pick:
Cincinnati 31
Minnesota 24

FINAL
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Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis, Indiana
Over/Under: 44
IND: -7
DEN: +250
IND: -300

NO CHANCE. Their playoff aspirations go COMPLETELY down the drain with this loss (look at the tiebreakers).

Pick:
Denver 16
Indianapolis 34

FINAL
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New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida
Over/Under: 37
TB: +3
NYJ: -180
TB: +160

The pessimistic Jet fan knows this is the type of game that the Jets lose. They have a prime chance to get back into contention for winning the AFC East, they gained new life with the Steelers losing 5 straight and the Ravens losing their last couple of games in the Wild Card also. Although I do believe with Clemens in for Sanchez, the Jets will run the ball a good 40 times this Sunday and avoid any of the foolish mistakes that have cost them in all but one of their games.

Pick:
NY Jets 23
Tampa Bay 9

FINAL
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
Over/Under: 37.5
KC: +1

Buffalo, on the road at always-tough Arrowhead? I dunno. But the Bills have played inspired ball for coach Fewell. The Chiefs are dangerous. And I'm going to continue to remind you that I called that they would get strong by the end of this season (said it from the beginning -- go check) and will be able to build off it next year with that chump RB off the team and not holding them back now. I'm taking the Chiefs and the cheap cover. No over, though.

Pick:
Buffalo 10
Kansas City 17

FINAL
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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Soldier Field
Chicago, Illinois
Over/Under: 41
CHI: +3.5
GB: -210
CHI: +175

Trap game for the Packers. The Bears stink. I know it. YOU, my readers, KNOW IT. Lovie Smith knows it, but you wouldn't know that he knows it because his expression never changes.

Just when Packer Nation sought an opening to sneak back into the NFC North division title picture or grab a strangle hold on a wild card spot...

Pick:
Green Bay 24
Chicago 27

FINAL - OT
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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Georgia Dome
Atlanta, Georgia
Over/Under: 50
ATL: +10
NO: -550
ATL: +425

With Matthew Ice, I would've said the Fulcons get their revenge from that B.S. 4th Quarter in the first matchup, but without him and Chris Redman (yeah, HIM) in, NO CHANCE.

Pick:
New Orleans 34
Atlanta 17

FINAL
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Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Over/Under: 39.5
BAL: -13.5
DET: +550
BAL: -750

No way the woefully inconsistent Ravens should be giving away this many points in any game. Not even against the Lions -- who will fight them to the end. The Ravens will run the ball all day against the cats, though.

Pick:
Detroit 14
Baltimore 23

FINAL
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Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
Over/Under: 44
JAX: -3
MIA: +120
JAX: -140

Just when a few people were getting ready to come around on the Jags, and when a few others were ready to write the Fins off (before last week) the Fins will go into Jacksonville and ruin the Jags' resurgent season. Turns out the AFC East may have been the most balanced division out there. Lookit -- the Pats, Jets, Fins all could be 7-6 after Sunday. As a matter of fact, when you see my upset pick of the week, I'm COUNTING ON IT.

Pick:
Miami 20
Jacksonville 17

FINAL - OT
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St. Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans
LP Field
Nashville, Tennessee
Over/Under: 41
TEN: -13
STL: +500
TEN: -700

The only thing noteworthy about this game is watching the RBs. Steven Jackson is having an excellent season, and Chris Johnson is on his way to having 2,000 yards this year. He will get about 215 of the 491 yards he needs to reach 2,000 in this game alone. DEAR GOD@THE RAMS RUN DEFENSE.

Pick:
St. Louis 13
Tennessee 28

FINAL
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Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Over/Under: 44
NE: -13
CAR: +500
NE: -700

I'm hearing all kinds of excuses from the Patriots fans out there. I see Belichick at his old games trying to throw off John Fox and his defense with the Brady reports.

Whatever.

Just admit they've played over their heads on defense most of the season, but are otherwise too slow to really be considered contenders. Giving up Seymour killed their pass rush and weakside run defense. They do their thing offensively, but so do about 10 other teams. If you can't stop the run, you're not going to win week in and week out. And I really believe the Panthers will be working the perimeter with the run game AND the short passing game to take advantage of the Pats' lack of speed.

***UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK***
Pick:
Carolina 27
New England 21

FINAL
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Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders
The Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Oakland, California
Over/Under: 37.5
OAK: +1

......................



Nah, honestly, this may turn out to be an entertaining game. You know, the one they flip over to at 7:36 PM when the others are going off and Gradkowski is scrambling around wildly looking for Lou Murphy with 6 seconds left ha?

Pick:
Washington 24
Oakland 22

FINAL
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San Diego Chargers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys Stadium
Arlington, Texas
Over/Under: 48.5
DAL: -3
SD: +145
DAL: -165

Can't go against the Bolts at this point.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDiCxhtGMhc

Pick:
San Diego 38
Dallas 28

FINAL
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Football Giants
Giants Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 44
NYG: -1

The divsion lead is at stake. Here is the breakdown: the Iggles win, and (if the SD vs. DAL game goes as I picked) they control the NFC East with the tiebreaker over the Giants in any scenario -- and a huge game coming up against Dallas Week 17. The Giants win and have the tiebreaker over both Dallas and Philadelphia with control of their own destiny and three games remaining @Washington, vs. Carolina and @Minnesota -- who may very well be resting their starters.

In other words -- HUGE GAME.

The Giants are back to playing Giants football and the Eagles have proven they are no more than the 49ers when they can't get the big plays (which the Giants haven't given up since benching CC Brown). GET IT?

Pick:
Philadelphia 17
NY Giants 27

FINAL
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Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Candlestick Park
San Francisco, California
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 44.5
SF: +3.5
ARI: -190
SF: +165

What happened to SF sheesh? The Curds have been inconsistent at times, but they looked mighty strong vs. Minnesota and impressed me. With a chance to put the Niners away and stop all talk about the NFC West being up for grabs, they'll take care of business relatively easy.

Pick:
Arizona 37
San Francisco 21

FINAL
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