NFL Week 15 Bettor's Guide

NFL Week 15 Bettor's Guide
M.D. Wright
12.16.09

Remember, the SCORE I call is based upon the spread, money lines and the Over/Under; so when I refer to my record versus the SU (Straight-Up picks) and ATS (Against The Spread), that is what it in reference to.

Let's go.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Stadium
Jacksonville, Florida
***THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 43
JAX: +3
IND: -175
JAX: +155

Hmmmm... the Jags usually give Peyton Manning fits, but I don't see it happening. And the Colts' D has been a fixture in all their games. That's why they're going to be a tough out for anyone not named San Diego.

Pick:
Indianapolis 31
Jacksonville 20

FINAL
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Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints
The Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, Louisiana
***SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 53.5
NO: -7
DAL: +260
NO: -320

The carnage continues for Dallas and their fans. How can they deal with all the December swoon talk? They're going to get blown out in this game, they always lose to Washington late and that game in Philadelphia won't mean anything unless the Iggles lose to San Francisco and Denver prior (which COULD happen, but Dallas was 8-3 and in the driver's seat just 3 weeks ago -- now they are in danger of going 8-8 and missing the playoffs altogether?)

SHEESH.

Keep in mind the Saints are gunning for that scoring record (needing to average 41 PPG in the last 3 games to do so) so they will finish off the Cowboys.

Pick:
Dallas 27
New Orleans 48

FINAL
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Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, Missouri
Over/Under: 37
KC: -1.5

The Chiefs seemed poised to take a step forward before last week, but I dunno. The Browns have (at least what THEY call momentum) after last week's win vs. PIT. Vegas sets some ugly lines when the Chiefs are involved. Tough call. UNDER CITY though.

Pick:
Cleveland 13
Kansas City 17

FINAL
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, New York
Over/Under: 40.5
BUF: +7
NE: -330
BUF: +270

People are predicting a big game by Randy Moss and a blowout by New England. But consider this: the Bills all but manhandled the Pats in their first game this season. And consider this also: the Pats' offense isn't NEAR as potent when Moss is the focal point. They are only able to move the ball consistently because of Welker's action in the slot (and never being bumped off the snap for the love of EVERYTHING SACRED). The Bills will rough up Welker and they did a decent job on Moss before. Owens has awakened since Jauron was fired, so this game is going to be closer than some think. More like the first game with the Bills possibly FINISHING what they didn't finish the first time.

Pick:
New England 27
Buffalo 31

FINAL
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions
Ford Field
Detroit, Michigan
Over/Under: 47
DET: +12
ARZ: -700
DET: +500

The Cards had their Every-Fourth-Game Stinker last week, so you know what's coming.

Pick:
Arizona 51
Detroit 10

FINAL
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 42.5
PHI: -8
SF: +315
PHI: -390

The Niners do not travel well at all. Interesting enough, however, their back seven matches up very well with what the Iggles like to do in the air. Fans of the Cowboys (especially) and Giants are pulling for the Iggles to lose out and this will be one of the games where that will occur.

Pick:
San Francisco 27
Philadelphia 23

FINAL
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Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, Maryland
Over/Under: 40.5
BAL: -11
CHI: +460
BAL: -620

Lofty numbers here by Vegas. They're trying to suck in a few people who got happy after seeing the Ravens score 48 Sunday against the lowly Lions? The Bears, while admittedly trash, are not total slouches, and the Ravens are by NO MEANS to be confused with being consistent or thoroughbreds. This game will be close. So just look at the numbers above and draw the conclusion.

Pick:
Chicago 24
Baltimore 23

FINAL
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers
Qualcomm Stadium
San Diego, California
Over/Under: 43.5
SD: -6.5
CIN: +250
SD: -300

Again, NO ONE wants to play the Chargers now NOR in the playoffs. If the Bengals went out west and struggled with the Raiders, best believe they are gonna be in for it in this one.

Pick:
Cincinnati 20
San Diego 41

FINAL
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Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
InVesco Field
Denver, Colorado
Over/Under: 37.5
DEN: -14

Denver? 14 point favorites? ha. They are so wildly inconsistent. They got 3 INT off Peyton Manning Sunday, but still lost by 2 touchdowns. They will lose this game and SOMEHOW beat Philadelphia in Week 16. Go figure.

Pick:
Oakland 20
Denver 17

FINAL - OT
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Qwest Field
Seattle, Washington
Over/Under: 39.5
SEA: -6.5
TB: +250
SEA: -300

The Seabags are a train wreck. As a matter of fact, this GAME is a train wreck, because you know the Bucs are a sick joke right now (after a minor "awakening" midseason).

Pick:
Tampa Bay 13
Seattle 17

FINAL
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Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Over/Under: 40.5
PIT: -2
GB: +110
PIT: -130

Exactly WHY are the Steelers favorites here? Even if they're only 2 point favorites? The Pack go in there and cause heads to roll (and spin) on both sides of the ball. Steelers get embarrassed at home in back to back weeks. WHO KNEW???

Pick:
Green Bay 34
Pittsburgh 23

FINAL
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina
***SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 43
CAR: +9
MIN: -450
CAR: +350

Win or lose, are Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall & Co. gonna be giving out grades for YOUNG SID RICE and YOUNG PERCY HARVIN after they torch them, or will they claim that Berrian "quit" ha?

Oh, and Adrian Peterson smacks everyone in the face who said he was wearing down this year. 200 yard game coming.

Pick:
Minnesota 38
Carolina 21

FINAL
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New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
FedEx Field
Landover, Maryland
***MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL***
Over/Under: 44
WSH: +3
NYG: -140
WSH: +120

Appropriate lines here. Although the OVER may be a virtual lock with the way the Giants are able to score (and the Skins keep pace with teams that score -- see Saints and Eagles games of late). The Giants defense looks like a turnstile at Penn Station DEAR GOD. If the Skins had any semblance of an offense, I'd be legitimately worried. The Giants don't play well at night under Coughlin and DEFINITELY not on Monday Nights well, but it is a game they know they need and the Skins don't do anything particularly well for more than a quarter at a time (classic point: Jason Campbell, has good first halves and occasionally a good 3rd quarter, but falls apart like Jim Jones' "career" has since he broke up Dipset).

Pick:
NY Giants 34
Washington 24

FINAL
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***JETS GAME IS NOT POSTED, BUT WHEN IT IS, I WILL POST PICKS.