M.D. Wright
2.7.10
***EDITOR'S NOTE: Super Bowl XLIV. Needs no explanation.
Okay, we've heard all the pontification, all the posturing, all the political correctness from Saints' QB Drew Brees and all the political INcorrectness (which I am usually in favor of, but was done in poor taste this time by DC Gregg Williams) and we've dissected all the angles the Colts' defense may have to play if DE Dwight Freeney cannot go or is not effective. But to get right down to it, the analysis of this game is simple:
Colts' Offense >>> Saints' Defense.
Colts' Defense >>> Saints' Defense.
And Drew Brees has NOT fared well against teams that play a Cover 2.
Rather than go down the roster and get into all the X's and O's (which really won't matter at the end of the day), I'll give you a few things to look out for.
1. Saints will look to establish the run early.
This is where Freeney's impact may be missed. Although at times, he does take himself out of running plays with his spin moves, he is still otherwise a stalwart versus the run. DE Robert Mathis plays the run well also, and the Colts' triumvirate at defensive tackle mans their A and B gaps very well -- which allows their linebackers (notably Mike LB Gary Brackett and OLB Clint Session) to flow freely to the ball and make plays. It is why the Colts always seem as if they swarm to every play; their defensive line makes plays. Their secondary does not have to cover as long as other teams that don't play a Tampa 2, and they're only responsible for ZONES; not covering a man for potentially 3-4 seconds after the sticks.
ADVANTAGE: COLTS. No one really runs the ball that well against them, and bums like Pierre Thomas and bust-in-the-making Reggie Bush aren't about to start.
2. Peyton Manning playing chess vs. the Saints' defense and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.
I like this matchup. Manning is the smartest QB in football. His audibles at the line of scrimmage can annoy viewers or Colts' opponents, but he gets to the line early, makes his reads, feels what the defense is doing, and all the gestures and voice audibles/changes in cadence are used as a reaction to the defensive alignment. You have to love it if you love watching the best QB in the NFL at work.
ADVANTAGE: COLTS. The Saints resort to cheap shots and media talk because they know they cannot outclass or outsmart the Colts. You know you're beaten when you have to do these things.
3. Colts' Stretch Play Run/Stretch Play Action.
It is no secret; the Saints are an opportunistic team. They force turnovers and they play with reckless abandon on defense. Led by Mike LB Jonathan Vilma, they are ferocious when it comes to stripping the ball, and FS Darren Sharper is a ballhawk, leading the NFL in interceptions. The Saints are smallish on defense, nonetheless -- especially without DE Charles Grant and excluding All-Pro DE Will Smith. The Stretch Play is designed to take advantage of overpursuit on defense and utilize active linemen to get out on the perimeter to create gaps for the running back to run through. Expect to see a good bit of the stretch play in both running and play action situations.
ADVANTAGE: COLTS.
4. QB: Head to Head. Peyton Manning vs. Drew Brees.
Manning has been here before. Brees is having another stellar season, but has not won a big game (notice I am saying this even after the 2009 NFC Championship -- because the Vikings LOST it/gave it away more than Brees and the Saints WON it). They are both ridiculously accurate. Brees has a quick trigger and has more targets than Manning. But Manning has more years in with WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark. And there is no one on the Saints who can cover Wayne. And if they devote too much attention to Dallas Clark with Vilma, they could get beaten backside with WR Austin Collie and/or WR Pierre Garçon. There will be plenty of one on one situations for Colts' receivers. The Saints won't have many, because the Colts rarely play man-to-man. And with the Colts playing a Tampa 2 defense, their safeties both have the speed and discipline to keep everything in front of them, which is the basis of the defense.
ADVANTAGE: COLTS.
5. Coaching.
Jim Caldwell vs. Sean Payton.
Honestly, this is a push. Colts haters, racists on message boards and uncouth people out there like to make fun of Caldwell's sideline demeanor and lack of expression. I've heard him called some pretty low-ball names. But you cannot negate how good of a coach he is, because Manning is so great. He coached great football at Wake Forest, turning them back into a relevant program and he's steadied the Colts' ship when a LOT of people pegged them to fall back to the middle of the pack this year.
Sean Payton is a knockoff Bill Belichick; gambles too much on 4th down, too aggressive for his team's own good and the smug look on his face (watch him during the game, he's always looking like he's eating sour patch candies with that pucker he makes with his lips no homo). BUT HE CAN COACH. His offensive game plan is lights out and it plays to the strengths of his QB, RB and WRs. That's what you're supposed to do. Caldwell kept the ship steered and had a 16-0* season, the Saints finished 13-3, despite losing 3 straight to end the season, but they've come on strong building up to the Super Bowl.
* Let's face it, the Colts don't take their starters out vs. NYJ Week 16, they win, and they DEFINITELY destroy a hapless Bills team that still barely beat the Colts' backups Week 17.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH.
Let's get to Vegas' numbers --
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sun Life Stadium
Miami, Florida
February 7, 2010
6:25 PM EST
Over/Under: 57
IND: -4.5
NO: +165
IND: -190
Pick:
New Orleans 24
Indianapolis 38
FINAL
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